| 194.834 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 128.419 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 111.505 | How many Flex Alerts will be issued in California in 2024? | Continuous |
| 99.716 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 98.654 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.517 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 97.446 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.744 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 95.967 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 95.696 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 93.753 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.626 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 92.906 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 91.742 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 91.004 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 90.607 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.348 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.452 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 88.617 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 87.100 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 86.605 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.550 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 85.867 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 84.027 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 83.697 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.018 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 81.969 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 81.957 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 80.458 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 77.688 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-24) | Continuous |
| 74.891 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 71.970 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-24) | Continuous |
| 71.948 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| 71.193 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 69.690 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 68.351 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 68.003 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 65.594 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 63.756 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 63.756 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 63.756 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 62.830 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 61.468 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 60.493 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 60.249 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 59.915 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 59.485 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 59.485 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 59.485 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 59.485 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 59.485 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 58.819 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 58.792 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| 57.034 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 56.396 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 55.954 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 55.163 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 54.979 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 54.977 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 54.267 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 52.502 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 51.368 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.818 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.900 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 47.279 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| 37.538 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 37.314 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 36.790 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 36.084 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 35.948 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 35.548 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 35.112 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 35.047 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 34.305 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 34.086 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 34.086 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 34.086 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 34.086 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 34.086 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 34.066 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 34.054 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 33.853 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 33.462 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 33.462 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 33.289 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 32.951 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.014 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 30.623 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 30.298 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 30.190 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 29.531 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 29.133 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 28.482 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 27.611 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 27.345 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 27.345 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 27.267 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 27.232 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 27.084 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 26.888 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 26.600 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 26.008 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 25.947 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 25.842 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 25.273 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 24.451 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 22.996 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 22.996 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 22.888 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.370 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 22.231 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 22.004 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 21.967 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.725 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.608 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.427 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 21.015 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 20.756 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 20.613 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 19.993 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.920 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 18.903 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.599 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 18.023 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.953 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.390 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 16.104 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 15.619 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.634 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.456 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 13.608 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.910 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 12.872 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 12.157 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 12.117 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 11.477 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.155 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 11.150 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 10.829 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 10.773 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 10.666 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.996 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 8.756 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.207 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.932 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 7.773 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 7.412 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 7.396 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 7.215 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.056 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 6.973 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 6.338 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 6.250 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 6.250 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 5.440 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 4.537 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 4.442 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 3.752 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.736 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 3.730 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 3.471 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.906 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 2.592 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 2.254 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 1.244 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 1.244 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 1.244 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 1.244 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 1.244 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 1.244 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 1.244 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 1.244 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 1.033 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 0.869 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 0.421 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 0.120 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.013 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| -0.103 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -0.432 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -0.935 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2024) | Continuous |
| -1.998 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -2.048 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -2.877 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| -5.052 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -9.359 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -15.134 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| -16.298 | What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release? | Continuous |
| -16.758 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -17.051 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -19.128 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -23.835 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -30.858 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -34.394 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -37.964 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -39.459 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -66.881 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| -67.355 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| -70.687 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -78.198 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -84.228 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -85.952 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -87.504 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| -96.249 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |