| 90.920 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 90.749 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.700 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 89.168 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.791 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 77.149 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.552 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.513 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 75.510 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 74.840 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 74.314 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 74.173 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun) | Binary |
| 73.695 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 73.695 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 72.122 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever) | Binary |
| 71.732 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 71.397 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream) | Binary |
| 70.136 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings) | Binary |
| 69.238 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 68.745 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 68.496 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 68.226 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 65.697 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 65.397 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 63.823 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 63.311 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 61.896 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 60.929 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 60.929 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 60.455 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 60.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 60.279 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 60.279 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 60.279 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 60.279 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 60.279 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 59.699 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 59.173 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 58.703 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 58.334 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 58.167 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.077 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| 57.211 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 57.019 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 56.693 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 56.625 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 56.443 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 56.089 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 55.967 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 55.911 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 55.841 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury) | Binary |
| 55.064 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 54.979 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 54.919 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks) | Binary |
| 54.799 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm) | Binary |
| 54.555 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky) | Binary |
| 54.069 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 53.891 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 53.729 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.699 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.482 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 52.018 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 51.678 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 51.507 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 50.624 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 50.402 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 50.377 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 50.300 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 50.300 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 50.256 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 49.940 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 49.770 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 49.400 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 49.027 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 48.746 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 47.083 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 46.108 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 46.076 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 46.074 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 44.933 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 44.632 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 44.586 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 43.827 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 42.980 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 42.267 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 42.152 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 41.353 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 40.407 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 39.732 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 39.585 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 39.331 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 39.306 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 39.035 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 38.857 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 37.606 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 37.582 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 37.476 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 36.996 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 35.766 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 35.627 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 35.448 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 34.563 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 31.955 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 31.689 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 29.123 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 26.626 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 25.927 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 24.745 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 24.647 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 21.585 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 17.346 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 13.915 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| 13.245 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 11.641 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.245 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 8.366 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 7.736 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 7.438 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 7.292 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 7.271 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 7.091 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 6.346 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics) | Binary |
| 5.160 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 5.060 | Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 4.264 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 4.161 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 3.994 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 3.317 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 3.317 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 3.273 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 3.194 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 3.194 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 3.184 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 3.095 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 2.877 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 2.877 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 2.877 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 2.789 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 1.711 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 1.116 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 1.116 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 1.116 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 0.707 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 0.698 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 0.698 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 0.582 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 0.574 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| - | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| - | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| - | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| - | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 April 1) | Binary |
| - | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| - | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -0.975 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| -1.839 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| -1.991 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| -2.498 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -2.561 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| -2.753 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| -2.976 | Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -3.259 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| -5.608 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -6.607 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| -6.758 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| -8.431 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -10.267 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -12.993 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces) | Binary |
| -16.305 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -16.626 | Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -17.932 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| -20.410 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| -21.676 | Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024? | Binary |
| -30.776 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -43.018 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| -45.026 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| -57.739 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -75.994 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| -81.448 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| -82.855 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -85.752 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -137.295 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -163.171 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty) | Binary |
| -164.817 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| -234.718 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -236.548 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| -237.729 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |