| 76.837 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 76.218 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 72.374 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 72.026 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 71.298 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 70.608 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 70.604 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 70.348 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 69.328 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 61.886 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 60.479 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 59.915 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 59.054 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 56.741 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 56.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 56.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 56.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 56.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 56.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 56.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 56.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 56.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 56.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 56.246 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 56.235 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 56.234 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 56.199 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 56.194 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 55.994 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 55.966 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 55.954 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 55.738 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 55.655 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 55.558 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 55.422 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 55.219 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 55.050 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 55.031 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 55.019 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 55.014 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 54.886 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 54.355 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 54.172 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 54.153 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 53.735 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 53.453 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 53.235 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 52.992 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 52.094 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 51.981 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 51.981 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 51.978 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 51.974 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 51.940 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 51.821 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 51.468 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 51.068 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.477 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 49.543 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 48.895 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 48.662 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.627 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 48.390 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 45.418 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 45.386 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 44.888 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 44.772 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 44.411 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 44.009 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 43.855 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 43.789 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 43.044 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 42.469 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 41.518 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 41.316 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 40.898 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 39.988 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 39.491 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 39.058 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 37.835 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 35.780 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 35.177 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 34.114 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 33.580 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.865 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 32.725 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 30.429 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 29.917 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 29.786 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 29.786 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 29.786 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 29.786 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 29.785 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 29.784 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 29.780 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 29.742 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 29.718 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 29.374 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 27.838 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 27.019 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 26.760 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q2 (FY2025, ends Jul 2024)) | Continuous |
| 25.884 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 25.695 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 25.689 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 25.575 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.428 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 23.428 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 23.428 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 23.428 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 23.428 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 23.392 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 23.361 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 23.178 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 22.990 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 22.633 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 22.445 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.339 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.039 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 21.725 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q3 (FY2025, ends Oct 2024)) | Continuous |
| 21.639 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 20.652 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| 20.403 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 20.191 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 19.463 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 19.061 | What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? | Continuous |
| 18.770 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 18.733 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 18.395 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 18.017 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 17.581 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 17.178 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| 15.887 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 14.763 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 14.737 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 14.601 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 14.601 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 14.601 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 14.601 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 14.601 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 14.601 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 14.601 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 14.600 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 14.560 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 12.530 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 11.638 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 11.270 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 11.222 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 10.282 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 9.794 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| 9.747 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 9.572 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 9.312 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 8.548 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 8.519 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 8.450 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 8.068 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 7.847 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 6.778 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 6.743 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| 6.272 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 6.048 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK) | Continuous |
| 5.873 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| 5.332 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 4.190 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 4.008 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.006 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| 3.828 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.333 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| 3.162 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 2.917 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 2.753 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 2.556 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.540 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.176 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 1.694 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.202 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 0.911 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.819 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 0.526 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -0.220 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| -0.319 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -0.667 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| -1.462 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -2.818 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -6.228 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -7.078 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q1 (FY2025, ends Apr 2024)) | Continuous |
| -10.355 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -32.245 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -35.747 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -37.936 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -45.886 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -71.822 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -111.920 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |