converse

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.323	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
107.351	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
81.974	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
81.322	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
64.363	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
64.137	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
59.772	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
57.252	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
56.791	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
53.675	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
50.967	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
48.761	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
46.434	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
45.181	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
43.070	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
42.990	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
42.244	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
41.487	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
38.749	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
37.780	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
36.614	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
35.307	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
34.702	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
34.636	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
34.457	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
34.089	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
33.515	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
32.857	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
32.349	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
32.245	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
32.020	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
32.010	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
31.830	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
31.625	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
31.142	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
29.212	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
29.115	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
28.480	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
27.921	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
27.897	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
26.462	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
26.207	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
25.631	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
24.533	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
24.422	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
24.038	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
23.402	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
22.849	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
22.709	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
21.570	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
21.185	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
21.141	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
19.677	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
19.522	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
19.179	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
18.636	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
17.755	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
17.338	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
17.147	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
16.403	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
16.388	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
16.059	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
15.955	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
15.759	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
15.629	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
14.552	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
14.506	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
14.418	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
13.945	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
13.574	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
13.117	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
13.033	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
13.004	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
12.951	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
12.648	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
12.207	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
11.482	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
11.424	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
11.181	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
10.854	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
10.522	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
10.287	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
10.219	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
10.178	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
10.084	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
9.651	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
8.998	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
8.455	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
8.188	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
8.061	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
7.443	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
7.392	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
7.337	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
7.322	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
7.233	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
7.168	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
6.389	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
6.355	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
5.775	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
5.772	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
5.605	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
5.553	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
5.218	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
3.365	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
3.233	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
2.379	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
2.317	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
2.180	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
2.103	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
1.800	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
1.793	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
1.486	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
0.690	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
0.681	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
0.613	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
0.597	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
0.413	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
0.278	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
0.087	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
-0.099	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
-0.956	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
-1.984	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
-2.761	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
-3.069	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-3.210	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
-4.379	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-4.397	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
-4.805	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-4.990	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
-6.913	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-6.923	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
-7.048	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
-7.227	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-8.813	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
-9.118	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
-10.448	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
-11.560	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-11.959	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-12.545	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-12.842	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-14.058	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-14.526	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-16.197	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-17.795	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-21.041	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-22.557	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
-22.870	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-28.355	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-43.010	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
-53.815	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-56.889	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-59.285	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-59.988	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-63.532	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-87.915	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-132.301	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-136.540	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-161.653	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous