127.397 | How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be? | Continuous |
90.879 | 1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020? | Binary |
90.731 | When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation? | Continuous |
64.119 | When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators? | Continuous |
62.980 | Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020? | Binary |
62.727 | Will the banana plague reach Latin America? | Binary |
61.452 | A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion? | Binary |
59.940 | How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020? | Continuous |
56.627 | Will AirBnB will go public before 2019? | Binary |
55.357 | Will 2018 be the warmest year on record? | Binary |
55.115 | Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm? | Binary |
53.501 | Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019? | Binary |
43.976 | Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019? | Binary |
43.769 | Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018? | Binary |
42.227 | Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office? | Binary |
42.173 | A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious | Binary |
41.403 | Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs? | Binary |
39.466 | Are we in a simulated reality? Part I | Binary |
34.725 | All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020? | Binary |
33.596 | Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020? | Binary |
33.499 | Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? | Binary |
32.816 | Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen? | Binary |
32.787 | Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen? | Binary |
32.746 | Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation? | Binary |
32.241 | Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021? | Binary |
32.121 | Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019? | Binary |
31.765 | Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves? | Binary |
30.394 | Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020? | Binary |
29.363 | To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B? | Binary |
28.406 | Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025? | Binary |
25.827 | Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021? | Binary |
25.278 | Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019? | Binary |
25.084 | Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019? | Binary |
24.584 | 1 million European electric vehicles: when? | Continuous |
22.613 | Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC? | Binary |
22.172 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020? | Binary |
21.691 | When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit? | Continuous |
20.995 | Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018? | Binary |
20.514 | When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3? | Continuous |
19.544 | When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2? | Continuous |
19.344 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021? | Binary |
17.491 | Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option? | Binary |
17.296 | Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020? | Binary |
16.741 | A medical pathway to complete painlessness? | Binary |
16.349 | Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021? | Binary |
16.289 | Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize? | Binary |
16.115 | Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020? | Binary |
16.082 | Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample? | Binary |
15.486 | Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020? | Binary |
13.477 | Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019? | Binary |
13.430 | If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president? | Binary |
13.242 | A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic | Binary |
13.041 | What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018? | Continuous |
12.890 | Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021? | Binary |
11.829 | Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018? | Binary |
11.576 | Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018? | Binary |
11.061 | Airships by 2019? | Binary |
10.598 | Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018? | Binary |
10.573 | Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18? | Binary |
9.824 | Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020? | Binary |
9.640 | Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018? | Binary |
9.404 | Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021? | Binary |
9.289 | Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares? | Binary |
9.075 | Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary? | Binary |
8.950 | Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020? | Binary |
8.731 | Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018? | Binary |
8.201 | Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021? | Binary |
7.975 | Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President? | Binary |
7.876 | Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020? | Binary |
7.624 | First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018? | Binary |
7.140 | Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination? | Binary |
7.024 | Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018? | Binary |
6.526 | Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020? | Binary |
6.186 | Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence? | Binary |
6.087 | How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be? | Binary |
6.021 | Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018? | Binary |
5.779 | Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020? | Binary |
4.968 | By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther? | Binary |
4.870 | A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020? | Binary |
4.838 | Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve? | Binary |
3.852 | Will the US take military action in N. Korea? | Binary |
3.850 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline | Binary |
3.439 | Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018? | Binary |
3.348 | Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018? | Binary |
3.302 | Major cuts in US science funding in 2018? | Continuous |
2.883 | Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019? | Binary |
2.710 | First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020? | Binary |
2.636 | By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation? | Binary |
2.486 | A surge in large earthquakes in 2018? | Binary |
1.906 | Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer? | Continuous |
1.706 | Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term? | Binary |
1.705 | Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020? | Binary |
1.233 | Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020? | Binary |
0.692 | Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020? | Binary |
0.692 | Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature? | Binary |
0.671 | Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX? | Binary |
0.485 | Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018? | Binary |
0.339 | Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020? | Binary |
0.174 | Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed? | Binary |
0.067 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity? | Binary |
0.035 | Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020? | Binary |
0.032 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents? | Binary |
0.018 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance? | Binary |
-0.002 | Will the Ocean Cleanup project *fail* to have 60 systems up and running by 2021? | Binary |
-0.078 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018 | Binary |
-0.082 | By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today? | Binary |
-0.733 | Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019? | Binary |
-0.743 | Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders? | Binary |
-0.824 | Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021? | Binary |
-0.997 | Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member? | Binary |
-1.078 | Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019? | Binary |
-1.861 | Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C? | Binary |
-2.141 | Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination? | Binary |
-2.394 | Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020? | Binary |
-2.956 | Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency? | Binary |
-3.259 | Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018? | Binary |
-3.741 | Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020? | Binary |
-5.642 | Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years? | Binary |
-6.210 | Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people? | Binary |
-6.762 | Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018? | Binary |
-7.024 | Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020? | Binary |
-7.026 | To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else? | Binary |
-7.692 | Will Tesla go out of business before 2019? | Binary |
-7.812 | Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years? | Binary |
-8.041 | Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019? | Binary |
-8.445 | Will EVE Online die by 2020? | Binary |
-9.003 | Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States? | Binary |
-10.038 | Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election? | Binary |
-10.222 | Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1? | Binary |
-12.422 | Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018? | Binary |
-12.585 | Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis? | Binary |
-12.775 | Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters? | Binary |
-14.171 | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election? | Binary |
-16.073 | Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018? | Binary |
-16.556 | Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021? | Binary |
-18.789 | Will (some of) China's space station land on land? | Binary |
-20.013 | How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020? | Continuous |
-20.651 | Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018? | Binary |
-21.090 | Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections? | Binary |
-25.288 | A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021? | Binary |
-29.381 | How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year? | Continuous |
-33.567 | By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term? | Binary |
-35.746 | Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented? | Binary |
-74.477 | Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation? | Binary |