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Duration:2 years
Time Period:2016 - 2017
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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17.66Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
86.422A is in the I of the beholder #1: Wait, is this video for real?Binary
46.247Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017?Binary
43.715Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?Binary
42.683Will a successful proof of concept for a hyperloop be demonstrated by mid-2017?Binary
39.311Will the California Drought end in 2017?Binary
39.077Will the (theoretical) existence of "dark matter hair" change the way we look for dark matter?Binary
36.493To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018?Binary
34.914Pandemic series: pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard?Binary
31.428Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?Binary
30.789The Qualcomm Tricorder XPRIZE to be awarded to a team in 2017?Binary
29.409Will the Pound be equal to or less than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017.Binary
26.758Zapping Zika #3: 1 million infections in US and its territories by 2018?Binary
26.687Will SpaceX launch for Mars in the 2018 window?Binary
26.575Progress in why the universe is 3+1 dimensional?Binary
26.538Can quantum gravity be interestingly constrained using tabletop experiments?Binary
24.730A is in the I of the beholder #3: it's beAIutiful!Binary
19.306First human head transplant in 2017?Binary
18.450Will more than 80% of the new US electricity Generation Capacity in 2016 come from solar and wind?Binary
18.343Will possible evidence for a new light particle be independently confirmed?Binary
14.421Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018?Binary
13.917Transiting exoplanet within 5 parsecs by 2018?Binary
8.755Will the Xenon1T experiment discover WIMP dark matter?Binary
7.848Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?Binary
5.329Will the US develop a new satellite for early-warning of severe geomagnetic storms?Binary
5.072Will Uber drivers win a class-action lawsuit to define them as employees?Binary
3.278Will Mochizuki's proof of the "abc conjecture" be formally accepted by the mathematics community by the end of 2017?Binary