traviswfisher

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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23.18	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
121.151	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
106.708	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
99.610	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
99.330	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
97.356	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
93.734	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
89.173	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
83.417	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
82.941	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
80.706	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
75.674	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
75.028	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
74.042	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
73.971	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
73.077	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
72.871	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
72.850	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
69.221	Airships by 2019?	Binary
68.667	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
66.086	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
65.448	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
64.571	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
63.379	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
58.654	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
58.465	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
58.275	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
56.750	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
56.358	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
55.890	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
55.358	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
54.360	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
52.524	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
50.743	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
49.836	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
49.206	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
48.681	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
48.018	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
46.769	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
46.439	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
46.040	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
45.456	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
44.037	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
43.582	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
42.909	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
42.530	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
42.410	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
40.436	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
40.289	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
40.135	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
39.870	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
39.708	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
37.882	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
36.215	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
35.314	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
35.200	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
35.149	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
33.435	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
32.544	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
32.020	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
31.596	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
31.128	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
30.531	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
30.176	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
29.567	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
29.530	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
29.337	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
28.816	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
28.161	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
27.526	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
27.431	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
25.973	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
24.987	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
24.829	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
24.383	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
21.677	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
19.757	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
19.672	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
19.479	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
19.049	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
19.010	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
18.606	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
17.597	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
17.399	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
17.361	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
16.952	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
16.886	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
16.657	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
16.231	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
16.069	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
15.958	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
15.597	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
15.240	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
15.220	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
15.154	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
14.461	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
14.174	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
14.043	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
13.792	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
13.494	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
13.390	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
13.383	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
11.968	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
11.949	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
11.600	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
10.500	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
10.193	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
9.739	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
9.453	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
9.208	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
8.924	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
8.514	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
7.460	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
5.625	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
5.328	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
5.040	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
4.963	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
4.499	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
4.458	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
4.306	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
3.733	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
3.598	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
3.314	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
3.196	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
3.050	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
2.953	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
2.728	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
2.424	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
1.494	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
0.610	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
0.466	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
0.010	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
-0.099	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
-0.114	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
-1.621	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-2.528	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
-2.532	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-5.107	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
-5.788	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-7.036	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-7.592	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
-8.210	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-8.411	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
-9.017	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-9.313	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-14.828	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
-15.207	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-18.244	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-21.275	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-24.720	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-26.858	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-29.759	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-34.777	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
-39.626	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
-44.504	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
-59.222	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-61.430	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
-65.666	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-67.226	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-72.036	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-171.241	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary