bzial

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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15.08	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
59.760	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
57.052	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
55.980	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
53.971	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
53.761	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
53.125	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
51.887	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
47.636	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
47.633	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
47.247	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
46.028	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
45.847	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
45.620	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
45.440	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
43.816	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
43.148	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
43.135	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
41.774	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
41.130	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
40.755	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
40.014	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
39.029	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
38.975	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
38.544	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
37.839	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
37.401	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
36.256	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
35.523	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
35.445	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
34.924	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
34.688	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
34.668	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
33.528	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
33.414	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
33.061	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
32.754	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
32.241	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
32.110	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
31.822	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
31.549	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
31.221	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
31.097	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
30.775	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
30.048	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
29.950	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
29.290	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
29.147	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
29.086	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
28.860	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
27.580	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
27.486	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
26.676	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
25.659	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
23.448	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
22.841	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
22.707	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
22.301	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
21.027	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
20.929	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
20.926	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
20.362	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
20.205	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
19.684	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
19.339	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
19.268	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
18.609	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
18.115	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
18.069	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
17.881	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
17.629	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
17.440	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
17.395	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
17.177	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
16.965	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
16.748	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
16.655	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
15.499	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
15.205	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
14.272	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
14.123	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
13.785	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
13.541	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
13.419	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
13.184	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
13.023	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
12.749	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
12.646	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
12.592	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
12.442	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
12.123	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
11.841	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
11.634	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
10.287	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
10.185	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
10.146	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
10.066	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
9.969	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
9.328	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
8.626	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
8.333	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
7.119	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
6.599	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
6.426	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
6.143	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
5.755	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
5.540	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
5.453	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
5.435	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
5.397	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
5.254	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
4.769	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
4.682	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
4.637	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
3.780	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
3.780	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
3.676	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
3.438	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
3.107	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
3.095	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
2.862	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
2.842	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
2.781	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
2.103	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
1.048	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
0.859	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
0.666	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
0.240	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
0.174	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
-0.003	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
-0.475	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
-1.999	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
-2.303	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
-5.414	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-6.652	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
-10.389	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-13.030	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-14.340	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-15.088	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
-15.146	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-15.652	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-17.928	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
-18.471	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-18.688	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-26.836	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-31.703	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-33.681	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-34.833	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-40.200	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-45.535	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
-55.836	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-59.019	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-112.730	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary