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Duration:5 years
Time Period:2016 - 2020
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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14.38Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
52.614Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?Binary
52.046To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?Binary
47.432Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?Binary
47.004Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?Binary
42.896Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?Binary
39.017Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?Binary
38.125A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently ObviousBinary
35.989Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?Binary
34.367Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?Binary
31.101A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realisticBinary
26.221Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?Binary
24.439Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?Binary
24.242Will the US take military action in N. Korea?Binary
22.398Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?Binary
20.581Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?Binary
19.874To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?Binary
14.349When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?Continuous
10.519Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?Binary
10.242Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?Binary
9.453Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?Binary
7.193By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?Binary
6.465Will (some of) China's space station land on land?Binary
6.172By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?Binary
2.434Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?Binary
-3.317Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?Binary
-4.473Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?Binary
-10.916A medical pathway to complete painlessness?Binary
-31.315Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?Binary

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