User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2016 - 2017

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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15.58	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.487	Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
65.445	Funding for a study of anti-aging properties of the diabetes drug Metformin?	Binary
55.340	World population forecast to peak before 2100?	Binary
53.255	A is in the I of the beholder #1: Wait, is this video for real?	Binary
50.961	Will the London housing market deflate in 2017?	Binary
44.594	Zapping Zika #3: 1 million infections in US and its territories by 2018?	Binary
31.371	Will SpaceX launch for Mars in the 2018 window?	Binary
27.875	A is in the I of the beholder #3: it's beAIutiful!	Binary
25.260	Will the California Drought end in 2017?	Binary
25.186	New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017?	Binary
20.023	Will possible evidence for a new light particle be independently confirmed?	Binary
19.908	Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States on January 1, 2018?	Binary
19.733	Will Uber drivers win a class-action lawsuit to define them as employees?	Binary
17.754	Will a successful proof of concept for a hyperloop be demonstrated by mid-2017?	Binary
15.592	Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018?	Binary
15.317	Will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem by April 1, 2018?	Binary
15.279	First human head transplant in 2017?	Binary
12.362	Solid metallic hydrogen: will it superconduct at room temperature?	Binary
9.836	Will the Xenon1T experiment discover WIMP dark matter?	Binary
6.998	To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018?	Binary
6.817	Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?	Binary
3.745	Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?	Binary
2.094	Will a small Turing machine (< 100 states) be found with behavior that cannot be characterized by mathematical proof?	Binary
1.914	Will the Pound be equal to or less than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017.	Binary
1.886	Progress in why the universe is 3+1 dimensional?	Binary
1.289	Will the US develop a new satellite for early-warning of severe geomagnetic storms?	Binary
0.776	Will there be a financial crisis in China in 2017?	Binary
0.301	Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017?	Binary
-0.792	Will more than 80% of the new US electricity Generation Capacity in 2016 come from solar and wind?	Binary
-2.449	Evidence for deviations from canonical black holes from LIGO?	Binary
-3.138	Will Planet Nine Emerge from Hiding Soon?	Binary
-3.471	Will Disney own Twitter by the end of Q2 2017?	Binary
-16.291	Will 2017 be an up year from the US Stock Market?	Binary

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