| 94.351 | 88.9% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 61.182 | 94.4% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
| 57.051 | 90.3% | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 53.999 | 84.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 51.114 | 94.5% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| 50.759 | 94.2% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
| 48.570 | 94.7% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
| 43.259 | 94.4% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
| 43.019 | 83.7% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 42.013 | 92.5% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
| 41.569 | 70.9% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
| 41.097 | 94.7% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
| 40.002 | 94.4% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 39.892 | 98.8% | How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024? | Continuous |
| 37.996 | 94.7% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
| 37.587 | 94.1% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 37.339 | 94.7% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
| 35.968 | 72.7% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
| 35.594 | 56.6% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 35.374 | 94.7% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 34.999 | 86.7% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
| 34.170 | 92.0% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 31.439 | 94.7% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 30.863 | 94.4% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
| 30.753 | 70.9% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
| 30.704 | 67.4% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 27.439 | 94.4% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
| 27.060 | 68.0% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
| 25.397 | 94.5% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
| 25.239 | 78.8% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
| 24.060 | 94.4% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
| 23.669 | 65.7% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.311 | 95.8% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.199 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
| 21.059 | 42.2% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 20.769 | 94.5% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 20.621 | 93.2% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
| 19.853 | 29.4% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| 19.213 | 68.5% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| 19.211 | 70.4% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 18.971 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
| 18.415 | 97.4% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
| 18.217 | 92.6% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
| 17.199 | 94.7% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 16.749 | 94.7% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 16.217 | 72.1% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 16.216 | 97.3% | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
| 16.002 | 36.0% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
| 15.943 | 93.2% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
| 15.922 | 93.5% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 15.627 | 94.7% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 15.440 | 94.4% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.352 | 93.3% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.140 | 93.5% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.973 | 39.3% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
| 14.955 | 83.7% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
| 14.750 | 94.3% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
| 14.555 | 70.5% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
| 14.295 | 93.9% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
| 14.165 | 94.1% | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
| 13.572 | 94.7% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
| 13.349 | 44.3% | What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament? | Multiple Choice |
| 12.716 | 94.7% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
| 12.646 | 91.4% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.293 | 16.5% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
| 10.149 | 84.2% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 9.788 | 92.2% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
| 8.756 | 93.3% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 8.668 | 13.1% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
| 8.345 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 7.509 | 93.2% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
| 7.399 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 7.279 | 56.1% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.055 | 59.5% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.911 | 93.2% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
| 6.771 | 83.7% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 6.576 | 92.2% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
| 5.997 | 98.8% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
| 5.683 | 10.2% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
| 5.656 | 94.4% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
| 5.588 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
| 5.207 | 24.5% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.096 | 47.1% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
| 5.079 | 17.5% | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
| 4.848 | 78.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.782 | 78.5% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.666 | 97.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
| 4.345 | 72.1% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| 3.593 | 90.2% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.563 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 3.538 | 15.1% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.438 | 94.4% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.542 | 99.9% | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 2.451 | 68.1% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.227 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 2.155 | 6.3% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.098 | 92.2% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
| 1.844 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
| 1.793 | 30.2% | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.668 | 6.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 1.587 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
| 1.515 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 1.475 | 28.5% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.421 | 59.6% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.315 | 6.0% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 0.874 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 0.859 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 0.786 | 23.8% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
| 0.730 | 57.4% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
| 0.628 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
| 0.475 | 3.7% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 0.427 | 6.0% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
| 0.422 | 84.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
| 0.390 | 3.9% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
| 0.337 | 81.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
| 0.297 | 83.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
| 0.289 | 85.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 0.277 | 2.2% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 0.213 | 4.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I)) | Binary |
| 0.089 | 2.1% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri) | Binary |
| 0.078 | 2.3% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 0.071 | 2.3% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 0.061 | 3.6% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 0.055 | 1.9% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 0.047 | 2.1% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| -0.014 | 2.4% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas) | Binary |
| -0.032 | 6.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -0.408 | 78.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
| -2.963 | 92.2% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
| -3.562 | 67.2% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -4.302 | 85.8% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
| -4.910 | 93.0% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
| -7.801 | 94.4% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| -8.194 | 16.2% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
| -11.609 | 56.7% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
| -15.464 | 93.0% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
| -16.088 | 92.2% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
| -75.315 | 67.7% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |