chris.j.cundy

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2018

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3.818	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
80.600	Will Elon Musk be sanctioned for Tesla buyout tweet?	Binary
52.147	A Trillion Dollar company by the end of 2018?	Binary
36.864	Will OpenAI's machine system defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August?	Binary
36.237	Will the Metaculus predictions be within 5% of the community prediction for this question?	Binary
32.707	Will bitcoin either boom or bust (but not just boringly wander up or down) during 2018?	Binary
31.876	Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018?	Binary
27.544	Will NASA’s WFIRST still be funded as of the 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
27.442	Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018?	Binary
23.542	How many House and Senate Republicans will announce retirement prior to the midterms?	Continuous
22.677	Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019?	Binary
22.500	Will Kim Jong-un meet the head of government from any G7 nation in-person before 15 June 2018?	Binary
22.435	Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer?	Binary
21.689	Will Amazon choose either Austin or Boston for its HQ2?	Binary
21.434	How many seats in the US House will Democrats control in 2018?	Continuous
17.996	Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?	Binary
17.960	Will Mark Zuckerberg appear before congress prior to April 17?	Binary
15.642	Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?	Binary
14.063	Will the first SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launch succeed?	Binary
13.098	Will Rosenstein still be the top official in charge of the Trump/Russia/Mueller investigation on April 1, 2018?	Binary
12.402	Will there be a Metaculus ICO this year?	Binary
11.795	Will a question of unknown nature resolve positive?	Binary
11.782	Will Tesla be profitable in Q3 2018?	Binary
10.362	How many United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning Syria will be vetoed by Russia between 22 April 2018 and 22 August 2018?	Continuous
9.356	Will there be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018?	Binary
9.242	Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November?	Binary
8.904	Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q (or as part of the team that is Q)?	Binary
8.721	How many of the Falcon Heavy's boosters will successfully land?	Continuous
8.204	A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?	Binary
7.600	Will Germany win the FIFA World Cup?	Binary
7.455	Will Donald Trump's approval rating decline noticeably in the wake of the Helsinki Summit?	Binary
6.919	How many US Senate seats will Democrats control after 2018 midterm elections?	Continuous
6.688	Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018?	Binary
6.378	Will an NFL player die during a game during the 2018-2019 season?	Binary
5.035	On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?	Continuous
4.646	Will Ireland's referendum to repeal the Eighth Amendment pass?	Binary
4.459	Value of the S&P 500 on March 1, 2018	Continuous
4.458	Will the current Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims 400 lives?	Binary
4.191	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight in 2018?	Binary
3.702	Will Elon Musk's kid-sized submarines come to the rescue?	Binary
3.220	Will the current Ebola outbreak be contained to under 50 cases?	Binary
3.153	Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018?	Binary
2.270	Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?	Binary
2.103	Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?	Binary
1.960	Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature?	Binary
1.667	Has Michael Atiyah possibly cracked the Riemann hypothesis?	Binary
1.067	Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018?	Binary
0.994	Will Doug Ford be elected Premier of Ontario?	Binary
0.911	Will Bitcoin reach a price above 12000 USD / BTC before end of the year 2018?	Binary
0.381	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in May 2018?	Continuous
0.172	Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?	Binary
0.116	Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018?	Binary
0.074	Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018?	Binary
0.050	Will Apple's market cap exceed Amazon's on February 1, 2019?	Binary
-1.670	Will we find the remains of missing Malaysia Air flight 370 by summer's end?	Binary
-4.778	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit?	Binary
-5.678	Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?	Binary
-5.735	Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018?	Binary
-10.675	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018?	Binary
-13.974	Will India's Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon blast off before 2018 is out?	Binary
-20.977	Will a MLB pitcher throw a perfect game in 2018?	Binary
-41.504	Will Michael Phelps be tempted out of retirement to compete in the 2020 Olympics?	Binary
-59.798	Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the end of 2018?	Binary
-72.317	Will Prince Harry and Meghan Markle announce a pregnancy by year's end?	Binary
-93.281	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?	Binary
-130.319	Model 3 spot production rate at end of 2018?	Continuous

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chris.j.cundy

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chris.j.cundy