Jgalt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.16	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.591	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
97.276	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
71.915	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
66.854	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
64.543	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
55.654	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2022)	Continuous
54.300	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
52.701	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
51.222	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
50.369	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
49.801	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
48.477	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
48.210	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
48.101	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
48.013	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
47.958	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
44.786	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
42.097	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
38.759	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
38.418	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
38.247	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
38.117	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
37.353	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
36.938	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
36.515	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
34.848	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
34.276	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
33.983	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
33.197	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
32.861	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
32.627	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
32.113	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
30.565	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
30.282	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
30.103	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
29.540	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
27.694	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
27.668	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
26.756	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
26.245	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
25.236	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
24.376	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
24.191	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
23.948	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
23.813	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
22.147	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
22.063	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
21.706	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
21.328	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
20.350	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
19.916	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
19.508	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
18.913	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
17.814	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023)	Continuous
17.559	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
16.512	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
16.169	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
15.781	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
15.598	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
14.894	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
14.464	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
14.113	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
14.059	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
13.803	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
13.719	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
13.704	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
13.650	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
13.192	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
13.075	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
12.047	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
11.648	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
11.585	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
11.575	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
11.398	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
11.024	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
10.921	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
10.913	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber)	Binary
10.722	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
10.690	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
10.565	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
10.303	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison)	Binary
9.568	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
9.488	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
9.470	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
9.414	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
8.930	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
8.380	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
8.226	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
8.222	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
8.094	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
7.860	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
7.850	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
7.660	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
7.649	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis)	Binary
7.274	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
6.937	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
6.870	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
6.634	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
6.444	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
6.384	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
6.340	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
6.295	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
5.960	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
5.928	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
5.742	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
5.641	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
5.593	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
5.269	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
5.159	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
5.070	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
4.444	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
4.391	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
4.374	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
4.365	[Short Fuse] What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for stepping down as head of Twitter?	Continuous
4.176	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.015	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
3.909	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
3.759	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
3.705	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.554	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
3.336	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
3.190	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
3.137	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
2.785	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
2.636	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
2.612	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
2.608	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
2.531	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
2.437	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
2.194	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
2.150	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
2.124	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
2.092	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
2.019	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
1.998	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
1.948	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
1.921	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
1.696	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
1.620	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
1.572	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
1.567	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
1.534	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
1.472	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
1.433	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
1.350	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
1.292	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
1.278	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
1.257	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
1.235	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
1.177	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
1.173	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
1.002	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
0.839	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
0.838	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
0.827	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
0.806	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
0.795	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.784	What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2022)	Continuous
0.722	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
0.676	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
0.466	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
0.136	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.080	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
0.061	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
0.028	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
0.013	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
-0.083	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
-0.408	Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?	Binary
-0.494	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
-0.639	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (September 1, 2022)	Continuous
-0.789	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
-1.189	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
-1.211	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
-1.267	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-1.281	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
-1.936	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
-2.122	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
-2.132	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022)	Continuous
-2.379	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
-2.397	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
-2.619	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
-4.928	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
-6.197	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
-7.147	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
-7.629	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-8.012	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-10.611	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-11.291	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
-12.683	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
-21.617	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-27.026	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-30.894	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
-31.953	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
-32.214	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
-37.174	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
-38.483	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
-40.469	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Jgalt

User

Jgalt