117.510 | 96.9% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
95.419 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey) | Continuous |
94.237 | 89.1% | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
90.564 | 99.2% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
87.263 | 100.0% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris) | Continuous |
82.833 | 100.0% | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
78.670 | 100.0% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
78.002 | 69.3% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
75.035 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Latvia) | Binary |
73.135 | 100.0% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
66.617 | 100.0% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
65.385 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona) | Continuous |
65.025 | 95.3% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
60.615 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Slovenia) | Binary |
55.810 | 84.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
48.165 | 100.0% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
46.569 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida) | Continuous |
44.039 | 100.0% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
43.403 | 100.0% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
43.179 | 58.6% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
42.745 | 79.0% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
42.177 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan) | Continuous |
41.981 | 100.0% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
41.541 | 54.2% | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
41.168 | 72.8% | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
40.263 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio) | Continuous |
39.858 | 48.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
38.807 | 99.3% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
38.171 | 100.0% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
37.862 | 100.0% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
37.421 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa) | Continuous |
36.199 | 99.6% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
35.091 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska) | Continuous |
34.744 | 99.6% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
34.575 | 91.5% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I)) | Binary |
33.791 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Poland) | Binary |
33.543 | 99.3% | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
33.020 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York) | Continuous |
32.614 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Belgium) | Binary |
32.063 | 100.0% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
32.008 | 99.9% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
31.967 | 94.6% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
31.786 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada) | Continuous |
29.169 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas) | Continuous |
28.927 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
28.912 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico) | Continuous |
28.598 | 78.3% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
28.060 | 100.0% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
24.931 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
24.678 | 86.5% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
24.075 | 87.5% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
24.074 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire) | Continuous |
23.529 | 100.0% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
21.848 | 100.0% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.711 | 95.5% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas) | Binary |
20.839 | 100.0% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
20.584 | 99.9% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
20.164 | 97.0% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
19.195 | 100.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.642 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
18.398 | 87.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
18.218 | 99.7% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
18.094 | 99.4% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.943 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
17.767 | 99.7% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
17.553 | 19.9% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
16.767 | 95.9% | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
16.728 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
16.467 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina) | Continuous |
16.440 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Georgia) | Binary |
16.098 | 100.0% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Continuous |
16.081 | 65.3% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
15.771 | 45.4% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
15.355 | 100.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
15.234 | 41.3% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
15.151 | 36.2% | After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus? | Multiple Choice |
15.022 | 100.0% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
14.942 | 95.0% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
14.335 | 100.0% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
14.045 | 99.5% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
13.586 | 100.0% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
13.364 | 100.0% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
13.302 | 98.2% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
13.199 | 99.8% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
13.089 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Israel) | Binary |
13.011 | 100.0% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
12.410 | 90.8% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.368 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
12.300 | 32.0% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
11.928 | 99.9% | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
11.877 | 29.1% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
11.096 | 100.0% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
10.887 | 99.4% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
10.660 | 99.1% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
10.434 | 22.4% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.411 | 63.4% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
10.385 | 99.8% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
10.257 | 99.9% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
9.928 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Portugal) | Binary |
9.449 | 9.0% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
9.324 | 57.9% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
9.282 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia) | Continuous |
8.565 | 95.2% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri) | Binary |
8.370 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Austria) | Binary |
8.329 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia) | Continuous |
8.260 | 93.4% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
8.116 | 9.3% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
7.906 | 10.4% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
7.583 | 35.8% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
7.005 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Illinois) | Continuous |
6.998 | 99.9% | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
6.709 | 100.0% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
6.631 | 31.6% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
6.531 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ukraine) | Binary |
6.275 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
6.269 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Armenia) | Binary |
5.245 | 62.0% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
4.945 | 95.4% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
4.719 | 99.4% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
4.282 | 89.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
4.272 | 33.4% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
3.153 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Netherlands) | Binary |
3.032 | 3.9% | Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
2.374 | 2.7% | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
2.089 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
1.717 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (San Marino) | Binary |
1.685 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Greece) | Binary |
1.503 | 45.6% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly) | Binary |
1.472 | 96.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
1.343 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota) | Continuous |
1.283 | 99.5% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
1.263 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland) | Binary |
1.225 | 99.5% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
1.129 | 99.5% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
1.115 | 96.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
0.923 | 99.5% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
0.885 | 99.4% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
0.826 | 99.5% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
0.825 | 99.5% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
0.794 | 99.5% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
0.757 | 99.5% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
0.716 | 99.5% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
0.714 | 99.5% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
0.709 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
0.568 | 61.1% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride) | Binary |
0.527 | 61.1% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel) | Binary |
0.291 | 78.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.258 | 93.1% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
0.230 | 83.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.183 | 84.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.165 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin) | Continuous |
0.156 | 83.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.018 | 26.9% | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-24) | Continuous |
0.013 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-0.118 | 99.4% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
-0.359 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Moldova) | Binary |
-0.454 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
-0.483 | 61.1% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat) | Binary |
-0.489 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland) | Binary |
-0.771 | 95.3% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
-0.827 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
-1.197 | 99.4% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
-1.257 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Iceland) | Binary |
-1.354 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Oregon) | Continuous |
-1.896 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia) | Binary |
-1.947 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Norway) | Binary |
-1.982 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
-2.134 | 21.4% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-2.466 | 100.0% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
-3.555 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
-4.453 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Malta) | Binary |
-4.524 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
-4.858 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Lithuania) | Binary |
-5.612 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Czechia) | Binary |
-7.399 | 100.0% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
-7.595 | 45.6% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
-7.691 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Delaware) | Continuous |
-10.200 | 98.5% | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-10.692 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Albania) | Binary |
-10.881 | 45.6% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick) | Binary |
-11.442 | 98.9% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
-11.603 | 79.8% | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
-13.158 | 95.4% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
-15.025 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Azerbaijan) | Binary |
-17.917 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado) | Continuous |
-22.995 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district) | Continuous |
-23.020 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Serbia) | Binary |
-24.686 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Cyprus) | Binary |
-26.922 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Australia) | Binary |
-27.517 | 99.3% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
-28.698 | 96.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan) | Binary |
-30.754 | 99.9% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona) | Binary |
-30.835 | 100.0% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-32.475 | 100.0% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-32.623 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide)) | Continuous |
-34.446 | 96.7% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
-35.627 | 99.8% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
-37.558 | 99.9% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
-37.823 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Washington (state)) | Continuous |
-38.773 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Estonia) | Binary |
-40.908 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ireland) | Binary |
-41.733 | 30.0% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-44.109 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Luxembourg) | Binary |
-47.314 | 55.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Denmark) | Binary |
-51.256 | 99.8% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
-68.803 | 61.9% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
-78.336 | 99.9% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
-86.714 | 98.0% | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
-96.934 | 99.7% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |