92.347 | 97.6% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
60.469 | 98.5% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
56.333 | 98.5% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
50.976 | 98.5% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
49.946 | 98.5% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
48.359 | 64.9% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
46.897 | 98.3% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
46.155 | 98.4% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
45.374 | 96.4% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
45.131 | 93.4% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
42.501 | 98.5% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
41.725 | 98.5% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
41.705 | 98.5% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
38.178 | 61.6% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
37.274 | 92.5% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
34.921 | 80.1% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
34.653 | 98.5% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
32.960 | 98.5% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
31.461 | 98.5% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
30.652 | 98.3% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
29.440 | 36.7% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
29.304 | 93.1% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
28.102 | 96.5% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
26.981 | 82.1% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
26.268 | 83.9% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
25.869 | 98.4% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
24.292 | 98.5% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
24.161 | 98.5% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
23.463 | 88.9% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
23.062 | 90.6% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
22.954 | 97.0% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.489 | 98.5% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.461 | 90.3% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.023 | 88.7% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
19.272 | 70.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
19.187 | 95.8% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
19.069 | 94.5% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
17.793 | 64.4% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
17.508 | 84.9% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
17.267 | 79.6% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
17.164 | 60.4% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
17.085 | 98.5% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
16.994 | 98.5% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
16.891 | 98.5% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
16.789 | 96.3% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
15.690 | 94.2% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.272 | 94.1% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
15.031 | 98.5% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
14.662 | 76.1% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
14.355 | 98.5% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
13.741 | 97.7% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.691 | 98.5% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
13.612 | 70.9% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.970 | 98.5% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
12.955 | 94.2% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.450 | 98.5% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
12.172 | 94.0% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
10.938 | 73.4% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
10.284 | 92.6% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.617 | 98.9% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
9.192 | 98.8% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
9.049 | 92.4% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.936 | 91.9% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
7.824 | 92.4% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
7.514 | 86.4% | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
6.443 | 93.4% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
5.756 | 93.2% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.704 | 98.5% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.530 | 90.1% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
5.150 | 93.0% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.865 | 79.6% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.729 | 89.8% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
4.480 | 99.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.368 | 85.1% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
4.146 | 13.8% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
4.084 | 29.4% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
3.557 | 90.4% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.501 | 98.9% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.370 | 87.8% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.755 | 79.6% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.345 | 89.3% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
2.198 | 93.5% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.040 | 72.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
1.448 | 35.5% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
1.048 | 9.0% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-0.559 | 97.0% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-2.695 | 92.3% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
-3.726 | 17.8% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-4.648 | 29.3% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
-6.354 | 96.4% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-6.634 | 45.1% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
-7.605 | 47.0% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-9.272 | 96.4% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
-11.498 | 79.6% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-14.855 | 89.9% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-15.947 | 63.1% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-24.475 | 74.3% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
-26.185 | 94.6% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
-30.814 | 76.8% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
-32.562 | 40.2% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-47.145 | 86.2% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
-51.753 | 98.0% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
-60.957 | 98.0% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-75.285 | 94.8% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |