166.484 | 99.1% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
96.090 | 89.4% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
85.404 | 98.9% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
80.875 | 99.7% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
63.043 | 96.6% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
61.791 | 96.5% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
57.931 | 98.2% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
56.170 | 76.8% | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
54.980 | 99.9% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
53.750 | 95.8% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
51.791 | 96.6% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
51.231 | 97.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
50.454 | 96.8% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
48.700 | 98.9% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
48.496 | 98.9% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
46.550 | 95.4% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
46.297 | 68.3% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
44.861 | 99.4% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
44.071 | 76.2% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
42.264 | 96.6% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
41.528 | 79.1% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
39.962 | 96.6% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
39.110 | 96.7% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
38.803 | 99.4% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
38.667 | 61.0% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
38.602 | 94.7% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
38.397 | 97.1% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
37.938 | 41.9% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
36.968 | 99.9% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
36.590 | 99.1% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
36.415 | 96.6% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
36.247 | 97.2% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
36.020 | 77.2% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
33.975 | 82.8% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
33.850 | 77.2% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
32.547 | 97.7% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
32.434 | 93.7% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
30.797 | 59.1% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
30.643 | 96.6% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
29.831 | 97.3% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.274 | 97.9% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
29.067 | 96.6% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
28.839 | 77.7% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
28.538 | 97.9% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
26.562 | 99.7% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
26.270 | 96.6% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
26.157 | 58.5% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
25.986 | 94.1% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.865 | 96.6% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
24.695 | 95.8% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
24.394 | 99.6% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
23.398 | 92.2% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
23.032 | 44.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
22.504 | 96.8% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
21.858 | 98.9% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.664 | 96.8% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
20.944 | 99.9% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.867 | 99.9% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.790 | 96.3% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
20.361 | 93.5% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.037 | 95.1% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay) | Binary |
18.238 | 96.8% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
18.212 | 99.6% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
18.150 | 64.7% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.816 | 47.9% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
17.761 | 97.7% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
17.690 | 96.6% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
17.233 | 99.7% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
16.888 | 96.6% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
16.659 | 96.3% | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | Binary |
15.823 | 97.9% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
15.804 | 91.8% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
15.363 | 96.4% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
15.304 | 95.7% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
15.252 | 93.5% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.240 | 41.4% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.948 | 98.3% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
14.723 | 97.9% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
14.386 | 96.6% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
14.180 | 47.5% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
13.908 | 99.1% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.383 | 14.1% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
12.526 | 96.6% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
12.402 | 91.8% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
11.833 | 92.3% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
11.314 | 99.3% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
11.209 | 99.3% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
11.018 | 99.5% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.347 | 82.2% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
10.258 | 97.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
10.101 | 97.4% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
10.096 | 13.4% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
9.887 | 88.1% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
9.381 | 99.6% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
9.324 | 100.0% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
9.044 | 98.6% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
9.023 | 95.1% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture) | Binary |
8.604 | 99.9% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
8.566 | 99.7% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.440 | 9.8% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.439 | 98.6% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
8.263 | 96.6% | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ? | Binary |
8.229 | 97.8% | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
8.084 | 99.8% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.786 | 99.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.122 | 95.5% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
6.788 | 99.9% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.481 | 98.1% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.309 | 91.5% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
6.137 | 98.9% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.944 | 78.4% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
5.931 | 98.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
5.510 | 98.7% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
5.321 | 97.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.224 | 97.8% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
4.280 | 98.6% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
4.209 | 92.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.175 | 23.8% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.163 | 8.8% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
4.081 | 96.6% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
3.717 | 96.8% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
3.418 | 99.2% | Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025? | Binary |
3.175 | 99.8% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
2.902 | 95.1% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director) | Binary |
2.810 | 100.0% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.539 | 99.8% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
2.090 | 96.1% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.033 | 100.0% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
1.861 | 99.4% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
1.739 | 87.9% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
1.464 | 99.4% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.330 | 90.3% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
1.157 | 88.8% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.797 | 93.6% | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
0.668 | 92.3% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
0.433 | 91.1% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
0.298 | 91.9% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
-0.122 | 45.3% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
-0.487 | 97.8% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.573 | 98.1% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.040 | 6.0% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
-2.093 | 99.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.781 | 98.2% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
-2.928 | 18.0% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-4.504 | 99.7% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
-4.776 | 38.0% | Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024? | Binary |
-5.442 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
-5.734 | 99.9% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-6.633 | 96.6% | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ? | Binary |
-7.145 | 98.6% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-7.333 | 98.1% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
-8.359 | 96.8% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
-9.308 | 96.4% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
-9.480 | 95.1% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress) | Binary |
-10.843 | 43.1% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
-15.533 | 33.4% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-16.823 | 90.8% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
-16.949 | 28.7% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-17.539 | 88.3% | Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion? | Binary |
-18.507 | 44.7% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-18.832 | 12.4% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-20.267 | 59.7% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
-22.609 | 98.2% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-24.889 | 99.9% | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
-25.205 | 78.1% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-26.447 | 36.5% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-30.269 | 88.4% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
-59.066 | 63.1% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-61.614 | 99.7% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-71.067 | 98.4% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
-126.552 | 98.6% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
-175.268 | 91.9% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |