jzima

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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13.68	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
92.795	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
89.213	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
70.392	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
66.339	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
62.712	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
60.397	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
57.646	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
55.326	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
52.971	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
52.052	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
51.323	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
49.252	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
48.693	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
45.592	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
44.197	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
44.161	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
40.538	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
40.376	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
39.587	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
38.065	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
35.688	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
35.271	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
35.006	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
34.772	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
34.250	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
33.321	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
32.088	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
31.765	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
31.726	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
31.031	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
29.932	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
29.564	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
27.731	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
27.486	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
27.477	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
26.778	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
26.395	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
26.361	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
25.394	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
24.544	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
24.428	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
24.107	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
23.827	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
23.722	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
23.335	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
22.758	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
22.031	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
21.577	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
21.430	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
21.105	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
20.449	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
19.439	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
18.341	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
18.063	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
17.667	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
17.519	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
17.446	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
16.882	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
15.542	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
14.489	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
14.065	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
13.980	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
13.860	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
13.581	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
13.483	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
13.135	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
12.187	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
11.748	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
11.644	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
11.461	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
10.841	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
10.810	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
10.585	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
9.930	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
9.687	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
9.510	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
9.492	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
9.477	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
9.392	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
9.287	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
8.360	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
7.861	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
7.306	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
6.793	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
6.595	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
6.568	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
6.192	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
5.728	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
5.609	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
5.286	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
5.191	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
4.764	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
4.739	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
4.655	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
4.637	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
4.456	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
4.431	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
4.025	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
3.987	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
3.665	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
3.467	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
3.202	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
2.375	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
2.285	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
1.410	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
1.209	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
0.919	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
0.576	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
0.433	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
0.354	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
0.281	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
-0.908	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
-0.998	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
-0.998	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-1.242	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
-1.775	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
-1.973	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
-4.354	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
-4.994	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-5.008	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
-5.305	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-8.705	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
-9.878	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
-10.369	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-10.718	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-11.327	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
-11.800	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
-13.505	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-16.473	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-16.620	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
-17.247	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-24.235	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-24.526	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
-25.256	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-27.339	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-33.025	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
-33.285	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-41.879	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-67.742	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-121.812	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous