datscilly

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.3	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
176.209	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
112.333	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
100.663	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
89.369	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
85.725	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
81.604	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
80.066	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
71.741	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
71.520	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
69.852	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
69.559	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
69.436	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
68.016	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
65.834	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
64.832	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
62.178	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
61.960	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
59.339	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
58.371	How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Wednesday, November 23rd (the day before Thanksgiving), as reported by FlightAware?	Continuous
57.417	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
51.140	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022?	Continuous
51.051	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
50.443	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?	Continuous
45.117	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
44.328	What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states, in billions of cubic feet, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on December 29th?	Continuous
44.126	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
41.794	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
41.669	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
41.626	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
41.013	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
39.958	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2022)	Continuous
39.954	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
39.665	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
38.944	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16)	Continuous
38.575	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
38.414	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
35.874	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
35.596	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
34.803	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
34.109	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
33.103	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
32.993	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
31.775	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
31.484	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16)	Continuous
30.733	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
30.247	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
28.925	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
28.877	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
27.907	What will the price of ETH be on Dec 2, 2022 at noon EST?	Continuous
27.803	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
27.339	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
27.279	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022?	Continuous
26.708	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
26.269	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
26.161	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
24.983	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
24.757	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
24.091	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
23.731	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
23.654	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
23.157	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
22.366	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
22.038	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
21.885	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?	Continuous
20.829	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
20.517	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
20.264	Where will Sitong Bridge rank in FreeWeibo's trending topics on the following dates? (2022-12-08)	Continuous
19.287	Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best)	Binary
18.900	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
18.693	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 30)	Continuous
18.678	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
18.332	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
18.202	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
17.893	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
17.726	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
17.010	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
17.000	[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?	Binary
16.816	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
16.516	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16)	Continuous
16.417	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
16.341	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
15.638	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
15.304	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
15.107	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
15.093	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
14.604	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
13.884	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
13.754	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
13.524	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
13.494	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
13.327	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
13.259	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
13.213	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
13.085	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
12.710	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
12.633	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
12.547	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
12.468	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
12.286	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
11.786	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
11.232	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
11.049	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
11.031	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
11.005	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
10.594	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
10.511	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
10.360	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
10.279	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
10.226	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
9.918	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
9.870	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
9.448	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
9.435	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16)	Continuous
9.380	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
8.947	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
8.884	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
8.544	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
8.539	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
8.489	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
8.333	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
8.273	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
8.269	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
8.034	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
7.917	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
7.846	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
7.808	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
7.789	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
7.711	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
7.571	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
7.466	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
7.406	How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022?	Continuous
7.342	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
7.191	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
7.183	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
7.088	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
6.989	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022?	Continuous
6.652	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
6.420	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
6.408	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
6.354	Will Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022?	Binary
6.306	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
6.164	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
5.409	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
5.306	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
5.267	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
5.127	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
5.111	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
4.977	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
4.944	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
4.857	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
4.822	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
4.803	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
4.781	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
4.716	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
4.676	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
4.584	Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best)	Binary
4.540	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
4.441	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
4.390	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
4.315	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
4.196	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
4.128	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
4.069	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
3.966	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
3.928	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
3.758	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
3.722	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
3.610	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
3.566	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.564	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
3.465	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
3.367	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
3.338	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
3.336	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
3.313	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
3.273	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
3.262	Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?	Binary
3.208	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
3.202	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
3.156	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
3.126	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
3.093	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
2.793	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
2.743	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
2.684	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
2.677	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
2.613	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
2.573	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
2.553	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
2.501	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
2.335	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
2.260	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
2.209	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
2.106	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
2.097	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
2.087	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
2.053	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
1.891	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
1.887	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
1.800	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
1.781	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
1.765	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
1.765	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
1.741	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
1.676	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
1.664	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
1.556	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
1.529	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
1.514	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
1.488	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
1.472	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
1.416	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
1.327	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
1.315	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
1.306	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
1.288	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
1.242	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
1.242	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
1.219	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
1.106	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
1.097	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?	Continuous
1.024	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
0.861	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
0.857	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
0.839	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
0.834	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
0.805	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
0.758	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
0.755	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
0.739	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.687	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
0.636	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
0.625	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
0.596	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
0.590	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
0.560	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
0.549	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
0.535	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
0.518	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
0.516	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
0.494	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
0.458	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
0.392	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
0.382	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
0.347	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
0.343	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
0.336	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
0.306	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
0.300	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
0.269	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
0.266	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
0.265	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
0.261	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
0.256	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
0.249	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
0.249	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
0.240	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
0.233	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
0.227	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
0.203	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
0.202	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
0.199	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
0.195	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
0.194	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
0.183	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
0.181	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
0.147	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
0.137	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
0.135	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
0.120	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
0.112	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
0.103	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
0.096	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
0.089	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
0.088	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.086	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
0.079	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.035	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
0.026	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
0.006	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
0.001	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
-0.009	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
-0.015	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
-0.021	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
-0.026	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
-0.119	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
-0.124	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
-0.187	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
-0.338	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
-0.420	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
-0.526	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
-0.857	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
-1.040	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
-1.121	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
-1.310	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
-1.489	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
-1.957	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
-2.390	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
-3.174	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
-3.590	[Short Fuse] What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for stepping down as head of Twitter?	Continuous
-3.780	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
-3.829	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-4.863	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
-5.558	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 30)	Continuous
-5.623	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-5.656	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
-5.970	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-6.605	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
-6.776	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
-7.068	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
-7.339	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
-7.877	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-8.097	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
-8.185	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
-8.587	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
-9.069	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
-9.273	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
-9.676	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-10.000	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
-10.796	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
-10.874	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
-11.468	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
-11.751	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
-13.740	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
-13.973	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
-14.430	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
-15.024	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
-15.936	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 30)	Continuous
-18.102	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
-18.243	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-21.271	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-24.921	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-27.882	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30)	Continuous
-31.955	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous
-37.629	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
-38.606	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
-39.371	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 30)	Continuous
-49.808	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 30)	Continuous
-68.314	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
-86.075	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary

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