datscilly

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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5.693	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
91.995	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
72.978	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
67.766	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
64.086	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
57.174	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
51.593	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
49.154	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
44.831	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
42.741	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
41.987	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
41.224	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
40.125	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
38.562	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
37.992	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
37.732	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
37.417	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
36.389	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
36.217	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
36.159	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
33.810	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
33.158	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
32.504	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
31.604	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
30.565	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
30.491	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
30.020	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
29.735	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
29.717	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
28.676	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
28.527	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
27.613	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
27.262	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
26.837	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
25.951	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
25.699	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
25.452	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
23.838	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
23.442	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
22.485	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
21.543	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2023 Dec 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
21.507	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
20.655	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
20.604	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
20.116	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.894	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
19.556	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
19.455	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
19.256	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
18.935	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
18.659	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
18.437	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
18.260	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
18.257	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
17.700	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
17.626	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
17.540	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
17.340	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
17.224	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
16.938	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
16.415	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
15.708	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
15.510	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
15.499	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
14.781	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
14.553	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
14.324	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
14.084	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
13.863	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
13.853	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
13.764	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
13.449	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
13.430	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
13.360	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
13.177	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
12.960	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
12.888	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
12.691	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
12.668	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
12.555	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
12.205	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
11.810	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
11.763	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
11.653	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
11.648	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
11.630	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
11.612	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
11.566	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
11.526	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.474	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
11.271	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
11.055	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
10.829	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
10.822	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.681	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
10.459	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
9.925	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
9.868	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
9.808	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
9.712	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
9.672	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
9.400	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
9.364	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
9.241	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
9.222	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
9.138	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
9.118	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
9.061	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
8.743	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
8.443	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
8.337	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.048	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
7.955	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
7.499	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
7.480	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023)	Continuous
7.412	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
7.298	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
7.202	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
7.068	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
6.977	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
6.856	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
6.823	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
6.751	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
6.672	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
6.671	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
6.626	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.568	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
6.544	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
6.469	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.431	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
6.420	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
6.411	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.340	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
6.294	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
6.249	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
6.176	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
6.134	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
6.132	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.131	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
6.076	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
6.035	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
5.699	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
5.660	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
5.658	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
5.592	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
5.527	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
5.504	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
5.453	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
5.364	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.314	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.256	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
5.190	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
5.164	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
5.134	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.116	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
5.076	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
5.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
4.950	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
4.936	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
4.804	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
4.758	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
4.545	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
4.513	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
4.505	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
4.499	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
4.437	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
4.392	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
4.357	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
4.332	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
4.312	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
4.273	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
4.260	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
4.143	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.090	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
4.072	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
4.032	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
3.977	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
3.940	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
3.810	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
3.668	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.663	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
3.662	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.626	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.490	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
3.455	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
3.411	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
3.280	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.278	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
3.220	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
3.220	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
3.218	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.211	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
3.145	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
3.122	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
3.105	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
3.101	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
3.073	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
3.013	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
2.959	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
2.950	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
2.835	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
2.755	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.745	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
2.650	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.627	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
2.568	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
2.559	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
2.539	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
2.343	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
2.273	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
2.253	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
2.121	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
2.105	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
2.077	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
2.065	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.030	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
2.006	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
1.991	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
1.975	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
1.903	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
1.802	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
1.782	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.725	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
1.688	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
1.648	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.638	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
1.627	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
1.622	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
1.616	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
1.599	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
1.590	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
1.512	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
1.489	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
1.377	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
1.336	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
1.316	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
1.250	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
1.246	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.195	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
1.177	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
1.151	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
1.078	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
1.071	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
1.037	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
1.031	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
1.030	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.969	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
0.938	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.937	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
0.881	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
0.880	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
0.785	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.745	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
0.734	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
0.723	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
0.705	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
0.704	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
0.591	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
0.590	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
0.581	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
0.565	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
0.535	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.512	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.508	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
0.453	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
0.445	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.422	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
0.418	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.411	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
0.390	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
0.356	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
0.327	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
0.310	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
0.306	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
0.302	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
0.291	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
0.283	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
0.268	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
0.255	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.243	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
0.233	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
0.228	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
0.213	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.211	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
0.201	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
0.179	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.171	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
0.143	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
0.137	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
0.135	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
0.124	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
0.115	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
0.089	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
0.087	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.063	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.063	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
0.060	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.046	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
0.037	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
0.031	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
0.012	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.010	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
0.004	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
0.000	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.024	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
-0.041	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
-0.077	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
-0.092	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
-0.100	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
-0.101	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
-0.102	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
-0.109	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
-0.116	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
-0.123	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
-0.124	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
-0.126	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
-0.137	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
-0.137	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
-0.175	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
-0.269	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
-0.342	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
-0.419	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-0.441	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
-0.459	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.520	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
-0.564	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
-0.568	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.702	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
-0.751	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.978	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
-1.028	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
-1.050	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
-1.105	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
-1.106	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
-1.175	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
-1.177	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
-1.237	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
-1.258	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
-1.315	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-1.325	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.390	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
-1.417	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
-1.581	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-1.652	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
-1.731	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
-1.802	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
-2.211	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
-2.365	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
-2.415	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.588	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
-2.607	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
-2.837	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
-3.094	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
-3.227	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
-3.392	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
-3.469	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
-3.509	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
-4.078	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
-4.100	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.291	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
-4.416	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
-4.489	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.489	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
-4.551	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
-5.118	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
-5.131	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
-5.285	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-5.685	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
-6.317	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-6.496	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
-6.793	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
-6.812	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-7.044	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
-7.930	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
-7.934	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-9.756	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
-9.904	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
-10.135	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-14.277	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jan-2024)	Continuous
-14.652	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
-15.060	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
-16.840	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
-18.184	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-18.241	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
-18.559	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-20.467	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
-20.634	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-21.484	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
-21.788	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
-24.960	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-26.743	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
-36.782	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-38.781	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-55.623	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-56.636	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2023)	Continuous
-138.616	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary