166.552 | 94.1% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
91.459 | 94.7% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
88.984 | 86.7% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
77.718 | 90.2% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
73.066 | 94.7% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024) | Continuous |
70.227 | 43.3% | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
68.802 | 99.7% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
67.010 | 96.6% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
65.259 | 95.4% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
64.802 | 96.2% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024) | Continuous |
61.773 | 95.3% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024) | Continuous |
61.716 | 97.0% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
59.639 | 90.2% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
58.333 | 99.9% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
56.367 | 99.3% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France) | Binary |
56.221 | 78.1% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
55.941 | 89.7% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
55.559 | 99.7% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
55.202 | 39.4% | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
53.633 | 92.1% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
51.160 | 99.7% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
51.073 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas) | Continuous |
50.481 | 97.5% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
50.104 | 90.0% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
49.483 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey) | Continuous |
48.537 | 97.7% | What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election? | Continuous |
48.050 | 93.0% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
47.561 | 98.8% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
47.138 | 93.3% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
46.186 | 93.1% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
45.195 | 95.3% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024) | Continuous |
45.000 | 90.4% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
44.863 | 99.7% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
44.626 | 86.9% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
43.388 | 99.7% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024) | Continuous |
42.857 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
42.646 | 99.4% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
42.163 | 77.7% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
41.882 | 88.3% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
41.325 | 99.3% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil) | Binary |
41.209 | 94.8% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
40.655 | 99.4% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
40.331 | 98.0% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
40.180 | 99.3% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico) | Binary |
40.084 | 99.7% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
39.798 | 78.1% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
39.226 | 94.3% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
38.167 | 82.1% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
37.836 | 61.0% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
37.541 | 99.4% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
37.446 | 97.3% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
36.310 | 97.6% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
34.901 | 98.3% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
34.324 | 99.1% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
34.235 | 80.7% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
33.567 | 69.5% | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
33.512 | 68.1% | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
33.073 | 97.3% | How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior? | Continuous |
33.004 | 97.7% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
32.613 | 99.9% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
32.419 | 97.3% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
32.398 | 81.8% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
31.825 | 99.9% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024) | Continuous |
31.367 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona) | Continuous |
31.235 | 97.6% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
31.201 | 95.3% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
31.107 | 97.5% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris) | Continuous |
30.821 | 93.2% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
30.819 | 99.5% | What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024? | Continuous |
30.463 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
30.284 | 99.3% | What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
30.211 | 46.9% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
30.000 | 33.6% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
29.760 | 63.0% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
29.099 | 99.4% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
28.765 | 96.2% | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
28.019 | 48.7% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
27.969 | 91.7% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.947 | 34.8% | Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024? | Binary |
27.925 | 95.9% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
27.878 | 94.7% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
27.791 | 89.2% | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
27.718 | 99.9% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
27.635 | 92.1% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.431 | 90.7% | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.302 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024) | Continuous |
27.250 | 67.5% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
27.060 | 94.7% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024) | Continuous |
26.981 | 84.4% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
26.567 | 99.3% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia) | Binary |
26.415 | 98.6% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
26.351 | 97.7% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
26.347 | 93.0% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
26.265 | 96.7% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
26.203 | 99.4% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
25.777 | 88.0% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
25.753 | 99.8% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
25.289 | 96.3% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024) | Continuous |
25.231 | 98.8% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
24.514 | 91.3% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
24.040 | 99.6% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
23.973 | 99.3% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh) | Binary |
23.928 | 92.4% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
23.619 | 92.7% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
22.914 | 99.7% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
22.816 | 90.7% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
22.474 | 51.8% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
22.424 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida) | Continuous |
22.319 | 83.6% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
22.235 | 87.5% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
22.210 | 98.6% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024) | Continuous |
22.037 | 97.0% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.878 | 99.7% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
21.770 | 99.7% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.478 | 95.0% | How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024? | Continuous |
21.311 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
21.109 | 99.7% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
20.794 | 90.0% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
20.698 | 99.3% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China) | Binary |
20.668 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada) | Continuous |
20.280 | 95.9% | How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year? | Multiple Choice |
20.203 | 98.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
20.123 | 99.7% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
20.005 | 99.4% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
19.879 | 90.2% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
19.827 | 60.7% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.640 | 99.7% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
19.596 | 99.7% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
19.510 | 61.6% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
19.499 | 96.4% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.204 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio) | Continuous |
19.161 | 87.9% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
19.025 | 49.6% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
19.004 | 90.7% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.869 | 93.7% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
18.733 | 97.6% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.011 | 98.7% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
17.882 | 97.4% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.771 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa) | Continuous |
17.350 | 99.7% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
17.322 | 98.9% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
16.658 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
16.537 | 99.7% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
16.384 | 99.7% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024) | Continuous |
16.358 | 90.7% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
16.218 | 99.8% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024) | Continuous |
15.635 | 68.8% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
15.630 | 98.0% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
15.618 | 99.4% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
15.612 | 95.6% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.612 | 94.4% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
15.581 | 88.4% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
15.398 | 94.7% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
15.119 | 97.5% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Continuous |
14.891 | 99.3% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
14.703 | 90.7% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
14.494 | 80.9% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.318 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York) | Continuous |
14.316 | 98.5% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
13.975 | 88.5% | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
13.943 | 99.2% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
13.530 | 98.4% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.345 | 57.7% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
13.221 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska) | Continuous |
13.205 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia) | Continuous |
13.107 | 72.0% | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
12.653 | 95.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
12.648 | 98.5% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
12.568 | 83.0% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
12.346 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire) | Continuous |
12.299 | 98.7% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
12.251 | 98.8% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
11.476 | 37.6% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.353 | 97.2% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.336 | 62.7% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
11.333 | 55.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
11.047 | 55.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
11.035 | 55.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
10.868 | 94.4% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
10.782 | 98.4% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024) | Continuous |
10.614 | 34.1% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
10.614 | 40.6% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (August 2024) | Continuous |
10.554 | 91.1% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
10.524 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico) | Continuous |
10.500 | 99.6% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024) | Continuous |
10.476 | 71.2% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
10.432 | 92.6% | Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion? | Binary |
10.347 | 96.6% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
10.116 | 90.7% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
9.911 | 94.1% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
9.908 | 91.8% | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
9.863 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina) | Continuous |
9.835 | 88.2% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.819 | 99.3% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
9.653 | 64.4% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (November 2024) | Continuous |
9.508 | 71.3% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
9.439 | 97.3% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
9.399 | 99.8% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
9.288 | 99.2% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
9.217 | 98.6% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
9.205 | 71.0% | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
9.180 | 96.5% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
9.162 | 70.4% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
9.161 | 56.3% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad? | Multiple Choice |
8.787 | 98.5% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.767 | 94.4% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
8.525 | 98.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
8.482 | 85.7% | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
8.469 | 64.9% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
8.337 | 97.5% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
8.207 | 30.8% | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024) | Continuous |
8.078 | 60.5% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
8.058 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia) | Continuous |
7.857 | 81.4% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
7.790 | 70.5% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
7.779 | 65.4% | [Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
7.751 | 99.3% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
7.680 | 94.8% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
7.583 | 77.4% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
7.543 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin) | Continuous |
7.443 | 98.8% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
7.427 | 98.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.260 | 96.7% | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
7.135 | 83.6% | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
7.050 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide)) | Continuous |
7.008 | 99.4% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
6.829 | 52.0% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
6.775 | 97.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
6.772 | 84.2% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
6.747 | 82.9% | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
6.677 | 86.0% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
6.628 | 85.7% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
6.600 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan) | Continuous |
6.554 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado) | Continuous |
6.539 | 87.4% | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
6.534 | 29.2% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.511 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.486 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
6.350 | 28.1% | Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May? | Binary |
6.316 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
6.315 | 98.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
6.268 | 96.6% | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.178 | 87.8% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
6.177 | 88.4% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.165 | 98.4% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024) | Continuous |
6.102 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
6.094 | 62.0% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.060 | 97.0% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
5.951 | 81.8% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
5.895 | 99.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.865 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota) | Continuous |
5.665 | 96.6% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
5.640 | 38.9% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan? | Multiple Choice |
5.544 | 97.1% | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
5.193 | 44.8% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
5.122 | 32.5% | When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs? | Multiple Choice |
5.107 | 99.0% | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
5.011 | 92.8% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
4.870 | 31.2% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Nov. 30, '24) | Continuous |
4.862 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
4.840 | 99.9% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024) | Continuous |
4.825 | 98.4% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.804 | 95.3% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
4.667 | 94.9% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
4.647 | 88.7% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
4.587 | 98.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
4.527 | 97.4% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
4.410 | 11.6% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
4.399 | 68.5% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
4.382 | 98.9% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.269 | 81.7% | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | Binary |
4.222 | 98.3% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.177 | 59.9% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
4.169 | 89.7% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
4.095 | 99.7% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
4.079 | 12.7% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (July 2024) | Continuous |
4.002 | 25.5% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
3.994 | 21.2% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
3.950 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Oregon) | Continuous |
3.818 | 90.5% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
3.792 | 76.4% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
3.548 | 99.6% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.533 | 34.2% | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
3.505 | 35.0% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
3.442 | 61.7% | Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
3.429 | 61.0% | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ? | Binary |
3.399 | 98.0% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.236 | 39.1% | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
3.200 | 15.3% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
3.128 | 43.2% | Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024? | Binary |
3.113 | 91.6% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
3.100 | 97.7% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
3.082 | 96.3% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024) | Continuous |
2.839 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
2.726 | 73.9% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
2.674 | 14.1% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.642 | 79.5% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.603 | 88.0% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
2.581 | 94.0% | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
2.537 | 63.5% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (October 2024) | Continuous |
2.493 | 97.2% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
2.418 | 99.7% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
2.289 | 98.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
2.228 | 89.1% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
2.170 | 92.5% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
2.081 | 62.7% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
1.825 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Washington (state)) | Continuous |
1.779 | 54.6% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (September 2024) | Continuous |
1.746 | 50.5% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024) | Continuous |
1.672 | 24.4% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
1.478 | 53.6% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
1.448 | 95.5% | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
1.301 | 57.6% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
1.282 | 98.8% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.159 | 100.0% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.137 | 97.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
1.106 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
1.034 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.008 | 43.3% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
0.990 | 5.6% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.990 | 95.5% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.949 | 98.6% | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
0.781 | 55.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
0.591 | 97.2% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.576 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
0.567 | 97.4% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
0.560 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
0.408 | 2.9% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
0.368 | 43.9% | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
0.316 | 93.6% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.283 | 8.5% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
0.252 | 86.9% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
0.196 | 86.9% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
0.043 | 87.0% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.017 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
-0.002 | 86.9% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
-0.004 | 86.9% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
-0.045 | 86.9% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
-0.046 | 86.9% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
-0.064 | 86.9% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
-0.088 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
-0.100 | 86.9% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
-0.131 | 86.9% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
-0.216 | 84.1% | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
-0.228 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
-0.387 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
-0.395 | 73.1% | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.416 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
-0.430 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
-0.454 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
-0.462 | 77.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-0.499 | 31.0% | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | Binary |
-0.534 | 32.0% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.567 | 39.5% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
-0.570 | 27.1% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-0.578 | 43.7% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
-0.803 | 99.7% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
-0.892 | 33.3% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
-0.903 | 93.5% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
-0.905 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district) | Continuous |
-0.976 | 60.1% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
-0.987 | 99.6% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.006 | 91.8% | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
-1.062 | 94.4% | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.088 | 31.8% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
-1.150 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Illinois) | Continuous |
-1.546 | 51.7% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
-1.857 | 34.6% | Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
-1.962 | 47.8% | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
-2.033 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024) | Continuous |
-2.298 | 68.7% | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
-2.341 | 67.5% | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
-2.355 | 10.0% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.419 | 88.8% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-2.444 | 95.8% | Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025? | Binary |
-2.485 | 56.0% | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
-2.530 | 14.1% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
-2.760 | 98.6% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024) | Continuous |
-3.007 | 81.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Delaware) | Continuous |
-3.022 | 83.7% | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
-3.150 | 85.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
-3.173 | 98.6% | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
-3.295 | 96.2% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
-3.359 | 78.7% | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
-3.660 | 92.3% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.070 | 89.3% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
-4.111 | 67.6% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
-4.191 | 60.3% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.461 | 80.4% | Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season? | Binary |
-4.891 | 92.8% | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
-4.901 | 84.9% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I)) | Binary |
-5.001 | 87.1% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
-5.241 | 21.6% | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | Binary |
-5.312 | 98.8% | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
-5.801 | 62.8% | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
-6.053 | 97.9% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
-6.109 | 91.7% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
-6.120 | 95.3% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
-6.187 | 21.1% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-6.421 | 67.7% | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
-6.774 | 95.3% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
-6.972 | 64.4% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
-7.522 | 99.6% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024) | Continuous |
-7.783 | 73.2% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
-7.922 | 80.3% | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
-8.365 | 99.7% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
-8.409 | 98.9% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
-8.580 | 91.5% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri) | Binary |
-9.022 | 99.8% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024) | Continuous |
-9.025 | 91.7% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
-9.198 | 32.7% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-9.215 | 70.6% | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | Binary |
-9.316 | 6.7% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-10.603 | 73.8% | Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
-10.625 | 8.9% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
-11.281 | 53.3% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
-11.534 | 88.0% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
-11.665 | 95.3% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
-11.820 | 90.2% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
-11.917 | 96.3% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
-12.175 | 39.2% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-12.510 | 100.0% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-12.844 | 41.0% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
-13.069 | 97.6% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
-13.435 | 99.4% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-14.957 | 91.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas) | Binary |
-15.181 | 91.5% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
-16.404 | 97.2% | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2024) | Continuous |
-18.305 | 94.5% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-18.518 | 87.4% | [Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII? | Binary |
-18.562 | 41.8% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-19.241 | 93.1% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan) | Binary |
-19.629 | 91.3% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
-20.899 | 93.3% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
-20.936 | 91.5% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-22.528 | 85.4% | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
-22.741 | 96.2% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
-23.083 | 96.2% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona) | Binary |
-23.574 | 95.3% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
-24.074 | 28.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (India) | Binary |
-27.839 | 86.8% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-27.906 | 84.8% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-28.373 | 78.0% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
-28.378 | 61.3% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia) | Binary |
-29.932 | 97.9% | Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community? | Continuous |
-31.930 | 95.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
-35.055 | 95.3% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
-35.816 | 99.0% | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-36.767 | 66.6% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States) | Binary |
-40.116 | 47.8% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany) | Binary |
-41.785 | 82.1% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Pakistan) | Binary |
-43.727 | 93.0% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
-45.625 | 53.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
-49.502 | 92.4% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
-66.268 | 95.4% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
-101.367 | 97.1% | EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025) | Continuous |
-111.210 | 85.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |