M

Duration:5 years
Time Period:2016 - 2020
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.
Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.
5.435Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
36.970Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?Binary
27.453Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?Binary
26.962By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?Binary
23.352If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?Binary
22.922Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?Binary
20.602Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?Binary
20.024Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?Binary
16.980Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?Binary
16.127Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?Binary
15.005Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?Binary
14.074Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?Binary
13.936Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?Binary
12.099Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?Binary
11.385Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?Binary
9.649Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?Binary
6.831A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?Binary
4.933Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?Binary
4.871When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?Continuous
3.483Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?Binary
3.036Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?Binary
2.524Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?Binary
2.134Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?Binary
1.624Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?Binary
1.520Will the US take military action in N. Korea?Binary
1.403Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?Binary
1.131Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?Binary
0.984Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?Binary
0.874Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?Binary
0.873Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?Binary
0.277Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?Binary
0.084Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?Binary
-0.177Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?Binary
-2.270Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?Binary
-7.067How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?Continuous
-15.058How impeached will Trump be?Continuous
-19.500Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?Binary
-62.658Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?Binary

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.

Learn more about how we use cookies in our Privacy Policy