M

Duration:5 years
Time Period:2016 - 2020
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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3.926Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
63.695Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?Binary
62.931How much will President Trump govern by decree?Continuous
35.995Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?Binary
34.808Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office?Binary
29.477Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?Binary
23.282When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?Continuous
20.028A medical pathway to complete painlessness?Binary
17.693Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?Binary
15.536Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?Binary
12.630Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?Binary
12.186Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?Binary
11.339Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?Binary
11.287A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?Binary
10.832Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?Binary
9.738Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?Binary
9.288Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?Binary
8.922Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?Binary
8.542When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?Continuous
7.646By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?Binary
6.422Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?Binary
6.229Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?Binary
5.206Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?Binary
5.109Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?Binary
4.748A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?Binary
4.555Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?Binary
3.402Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?Binary
3.297Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?Binary
3.296Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?Binary
3.219Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?Binary
2.959Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?Binary
2.894Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?Binary
2.128First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?Binary
1.909Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?Binary
1.812Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?Binary
1.631Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?Binary
1.296How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?Continuous
0.854Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?Binary
0.696By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?Binary
0.584Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?Binary
0.540Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?Binary
0.416Will EVE Online die by 2020?Binary
0.113Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?Binary
0.092Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?Binary
0.083Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?Binary
0.063Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?Binary
0.050Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?Binary
0.030A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?Binary
0.011Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?Binary
0.009How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?Binary
-0.020Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?Binary
-0.107Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?Binary
-0.158Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?Binary
-0.211Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?Binary
-0.411Will (some of) China's space station land on land?Binary
-0.522Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?Binary
-0.583Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?Binary
-1.184Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?Binary
-1.576Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?Binary
-1.703By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?Binary
-2.425Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?Binary
-6.592Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?Binary
-8.614Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?Binary
-9.489A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?Binary
-13.287Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?Binary
-14.036Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?Binary
-20.935Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?Binary
-22.068When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?Continuous
-23.992Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?Binary
-28.795Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?Binary
-37.957Will the Ocean Cleanup project *fail* to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?Binary

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