90.542 | 94.3% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
88.319 | 99.0% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
67.003 | 98.5% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
66.141 | 99.0% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
64.877 | 98.6% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
61.745 | 94.3% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
59.573 | 95.5% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
57.701 | 98.1% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
55.487 | 94.9% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
55.235 | 99.1% | Which team will win the National League Central Division during the 2024 Major League Baseball season? | Multiple Choice |
51.158 | 99.2% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
50.735 | 98.8% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
49.449 | 98.9% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
48.661 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
48.644 | 97.6% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
48.416 | 81.8% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
43.665 | 97.6% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
42.269 | 99.3% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
40.972 | 93.0% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
40.708 | 98.7% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
40.492 | 96.6% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
39.436 | 99.0% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
38.915 | 99.0% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
38.470 | 48.7% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
36.301 | 85.2% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
36.041 | 94.2% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
35.428 | 94.6% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
34.923 | 98.6% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
34.010 | 99.9% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
33.948 | 98.5% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
33.478 | 90.0% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
33.385 | 96.6% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
32.863 | 54.4% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
32.213 | 60.9% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
31.881 | 91.2% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
31.366 | 98.4% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
31.259 | 82.4% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
31.205 | 86.6% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
30.712 | 74.8% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
30.272 | 96.1% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
30.259 | 99.0% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
28.600 | 87.1% | What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament? | Multiple Choice |
28.224 | 93.3% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.104 | 99.9% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
26.959 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
26.719 | 97.9% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
24.796 | 88.2% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
24.458 | 63.4% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
24.268 | 99.9% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
23.780 | 97.6% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.639 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
22.979 | 98.8% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
22.372 | 99.9% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
21.940 | 98.5% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
21.714 | 98.9% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
20.877 | 64.5% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
20.803 | 96.9% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
20.491 | 99.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
19.806 | 99.0% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
19.413 | 99.4% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
19.233 | 99.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
19.182 | 97.7% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
18.368 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
17.795 | 91.8% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
17.609 | 99.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
17.131 | 98.4% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
16.903 | 99.0% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
16.774 | 99.0% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.738 | 96.0% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
16.184 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
16.039 | 79.7% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.991 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
15.310 | 98.1% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.022 | 86.5% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
13.909 | 28.4% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
13.464 | 99.0% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.363 | 78.9% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
12.984 | 99.2% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
12.923 | 92.3% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
12.739 | 79.9% | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
12.738 | 98.1% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
12.620 | 36.1% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.617 | 40.1% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.547 | 98.7% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
12.163 | 94.6% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
11.612 | 22.8% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
11.496 | 99.2% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.921 | 48.6% | Which NHL team will win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup? | Multiple Choice |
10.724 | 98.7% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
10.063 | 38.4% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
9.989 | 99.1% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.541 | 99.1% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
9.247 | 99.0% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.098 | 89.2% | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
7.586 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
7.399 | 88.0% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
7.374 | 98.5% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
7.230 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
6.979 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
6.971 | 99.5% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.541 | 21.3% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
6.298 | 87.2% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
6.253 | 99.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.774 | 97.5% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.701 | 96.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
5.631 | 92.4% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
5.460 | 41.3% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
5.203 | 99.4% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.849 | 96.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.744 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
4.120 | 94.7% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.941 | 96.9% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.808 | 26.1% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
3.671 | 95.8% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.561 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
3.519 | 36.8% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.304 | 93.2% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
3.276 | 98.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
3.010 | 62.4% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.973 | 95.1% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
2.759 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
2.750 | 96.5% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
2.465 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
2.406 | 79.6% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.132 | 89.5% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
1.838 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
1.797 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.573 | 95.9% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.567 | 97.5% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
1.422 | 40.9% | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
1.294 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
1.287 | 8.1% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
1.279 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
1.079 | 80.0% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
1.048 | 12.9% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
0.732 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.704 | 99.8% | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
0.487 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.469 | 1.3% | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Inkatha Freedom Party) | Binary |
0.381 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.329 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.319 | 0.5% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
0.302 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.286 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.261 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.250 | 78.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.191 | 1.3% | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Democratic Alliance) | Binary |
0.155 | 0.5% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
0.136 | 1.3% | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Economic Freedom Fighters) | Binary |
0.111 | 99.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
0.110 | 88.9% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
0.035 | 1.3% | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (uMkhonto we Sizwe Party) | Binary |
0.018 | 74.1% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-0.082 | 1.3% | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (African National Congress) | Binary |
-0.296 | 98.1% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
-0.934 | 20.0% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
-1.158 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
-1.937 | 91.2% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
-2.821 | 36.1% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-2.903 | 86.8% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-3.703 | 94.2% | [Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII? | Binary |
-4.290 | 96.4% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-5.983 | 52.4% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
-6.226 | 40.7% | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
-7.270 | 99.1% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
-7.876 | 94.1% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-7.924 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
-8.048 | 79.1% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-8.870 | 97.9% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
-9.911 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
-14.281 | 95.8% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
-15.499 | 94.5% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
-16.132 | 30.9% | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
-16.361 | 97.1% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-17.633 | 99.3% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-19.013 | 98.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
-23.961 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
-27.913 | 94.0% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
-29.227 | 83.6% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
-32.543 | 99.0% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-36.350 | 96.8% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
-38.676 | 94.9% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-38.920 | 95.8% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-45.271 | 95.8% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |