M

Duration:5 years
Time Period:2016 - 2020
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.
Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.
4.357Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
37.810Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?Binary
25.120Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?Binary
19.766Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office?Binary
18.180How much will President Trump govern by decree?Continuous
16.010Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?Binary
10.784Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?Binary
7.831Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?Binary
4.832When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?Continuous
4.813Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?Binary
4.762Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?Binary
4.753Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?Binary
4.365A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?Binary
3.393Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?Binary
3.362A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?Binary
3.299Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?Binary
2.152Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?Binary
1.982Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?Binary
0.611Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?Binary
0.557Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?Binary
0.521Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?Binary
0.123Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?Binary
0.074Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?Binary
0.015Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?Binary
-0.283Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?Binary
-0.535By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?Binary

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.

Learn more about how we use cookies in our Privacy Policy