Jotto

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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3.255	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
47.363	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
39.208	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
37.059	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
35.844	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
22.542	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
20.348	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
18.839	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
17.144	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
17.110	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
16.794	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
16.049	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
15.166	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
15.157	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
13.487	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
12.952	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
12.903	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
12.785	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
12.723	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
12.486	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
12.331	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
12.200	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
11.417	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
10.701	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
10.438	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
10.278	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
9.874	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
8.264	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
7.572	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
6.900	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
6.273	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
6.080	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
5.546	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
5.470	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
5.440	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
5.389	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.271	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.070	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
4.851	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
4.714	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
4.565	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
4.393	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
4.300	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
4.213	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
4.141	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
4.007	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.987	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
3.985	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
3.921	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
3.839	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
3.570	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
3.405	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
3.343	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
3.327	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
3.320	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.315	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
2.985	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
2.864	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
2.786	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
2.343	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
2.270	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
2.260	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
2.240	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
2.163	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
2.120	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
2.107	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
2.082	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
2.036	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
1.919	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
1.886	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
1.874	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
1.748	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
1.691	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
1.642	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
1.532	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
1.506	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
1.462	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
1.440	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
1.354	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
1.136	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
1.126	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
1.037	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
1.030	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
1.030	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
1.008	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
0.989	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
0.926	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.924	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
0.884	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
0.875	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
0.794	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
0.775	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.742	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
0.740	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
0.689	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
0.664	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
0.630	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
0.616	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
0.611	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
0.593	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
0.582	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
0.555	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
0.529	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.514	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
0.512	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
0.450	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
0.444	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
0.440	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
0.423	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
0.411	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
0.408	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
0.399	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
0.394	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
0.393	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
0.358	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
0.349	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.335	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
0.332	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
0.280	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
0.270	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
0.266	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
0.254	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
0.243	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
0.191	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
0.186	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
0.182	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
0.164	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.153	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
0.146	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.143	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
0.138	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
0.136	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
0.127	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.126	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
0.124	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
0.117	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
0.113	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.096	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
0.081	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
0.066	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
0.056	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
0.051	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
0.038	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
0.036	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
0.018	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
0.018	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
-0.007	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
-0.011	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
-0.014	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-0.067	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
-0.103	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
-0.125	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-0.217	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.218	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
-0.271	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
-0.730	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-0.760	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
-0.774	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
-0.802	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-0.922	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
-1.190	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.648	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
-2.230	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-2.462	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
-2.822	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-3.203	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
-3.204	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
-3.594	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-4.496	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-5.610	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-6.366	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-6.830	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-7.906	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-8.381	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-9.523	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
-10.382	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-11.704	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
-14.808	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary