M

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Duration:1 year
Time Period:2023
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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5.425Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
52.222Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?Binary
45.367Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?Binary
42.168Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?Binary
37.593Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?Binary
34.657How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?Continuous
31.615When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?Continuous
29.302Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?Binary
29.280What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?Continuous
25.732Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?Binary
24.282Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?Binary
24.034Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?Binary
22.896Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?Binary
19.639Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?Binary
18.086Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?Binary
17.662Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?Binary
17.013Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?Binary
16.668Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?Binary
15.771Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?Binary
14.177Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?Binary
13.438Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?Binary
13.235Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)Binary
12.883Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?Binary
12.439When will the second Starship test flight occur?Continuous
12.116Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?Binary
11.730Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?Binary
11.275Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?Binary
10.957Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?Binary
10.185Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?Binary
10.101Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?Binary
9.443Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?Binary
8.714What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?Continuous
8.445Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?Binary
8.422Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?Binary
8.009Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?Binary
7.924Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?Binary
7.708Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?Binary
7.448Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?Binary
7.279Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?Binary
6.429Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?Binary
6.038Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)Binary
5.798Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?Binary
5.785Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?Binary
5.605Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?Binary
5.384Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?Binary
5.024Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?Binary
4.541Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?Binary
4.153Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?Binary
4.014What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?Continuous
3.941ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?Binary
3.099Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?Binary
3.090Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?Binary
3.052Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?Binary
3.014Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?Binary
2.262Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?Binary
1.847What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?Continuous
1.491Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?Binary
1.419Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?Binary
0.689Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?Binary
0.542Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?Binary
0.511What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)Binary
0.346What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)Binary
0.328Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?Binary
0.262Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?Binary
0.205Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?Binary
0.161Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)Binary
0.158Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)Binary
0.097Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)Binary
0.092Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)Binary
0.086Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)Binary
0.025What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)Binary
0.017What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)Binary
0.011Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?Binary
0.008What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)Binary
0.005What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)Binary
-0.000What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)Binary
-0.004What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)Binary
-0.323What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)Continuous
-0.333What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)Continuous
-0.764Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?Binary
-0.805Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)Binary
-1.379Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?Binary
-1.448Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?Binary
-2.477Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?Binary
-4.801Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)Binary
-5.068Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)Binary
-5.905Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?Binary
-7.809Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?Binary
-15.575Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?Binary
-18.795Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?Continuous
-21.768What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?Continuous
-22.487Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?Binary
-22.985Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?Binary
-29.669How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?Continuous
-31.548Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?Binary
-80.172Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?Binary

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