galen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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3.691	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
105.828	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
97.710	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
82.289	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
63.173	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
62.545	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
59.377	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
56.402	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
45.365	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
44.993	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
44.799	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
44.330	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
41.829	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
41.709	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
40.413	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
37.787	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
37.568	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
36.612	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
34.728	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
34.599	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
34.207	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
32.351	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
32.266	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
31.672	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
31.061	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
29.700	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
28.577	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
28.158	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
26.335	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
26.127	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
25.966	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
25.607	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
23.726	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
23.309	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
23.067	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
23.056	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
22.752	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
22.602	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
22.490	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
21.732	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
21.465	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
21.277	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
21.088	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
20.770	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
20.035	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
19.758	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
19.647	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
19.296	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
18.643	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
18.137	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
17.802	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
17.716	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
17.598	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
17.543	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
17.049	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
16.610	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
16.384	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
16.130	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
15.970	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
15.922	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
15.884	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
15.675	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
15.634	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
15.175	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
15.109	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
15.103	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
14.963	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
14.721	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
14.438	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
14.384	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
14.340	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
14.263	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
14.226	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
13.864	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
13.803	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
13.778	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
13.674	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
13.637	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
13.603	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
13.563	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
13.550	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
13.525	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
12.684	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
12.606	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
12.557	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
12.490	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
12.414	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
11.713	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
11.554	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
11.162	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
11.024	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
10.939	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
10.936	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
10.777	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
10.741	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
10.484	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
10.392	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
10.282	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
10.173	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
10.092	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
10.090	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
9.975	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
9.777	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
9.663	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
9.656	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
9.509	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
9.426	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
9.404	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
9.283	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
9.225	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
9.167	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
8.887	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
8.851	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
8.804	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
8.803	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
8.761	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
8.653	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
8.599	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
8.587	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
8.565	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
8.545	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
8.520	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
8.465	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
8.407	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
8.244	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
8.191	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
8.142	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
8.117	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
8.108	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
8.104	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
8.042	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
7.951	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
7.938	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
7.900	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
7.862	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
7.825	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
7.801	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
7.681	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
7.678	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
7.669	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
7.655	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
7.494	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
7.316	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.311	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
7.254	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
7.192	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
7.155	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.990	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
6.975	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
6.912	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
6.875	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
6.872	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
6.717	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
6.689	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
6.667	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.649	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
6.623	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
6.593	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
6.592	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
6.580	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
6.331	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
6.239	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
6.236	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
6.236	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
6.160	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
6.105	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
6.069	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
6.038	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
6.016	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
5.973	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
5.938	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
5.930	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
5.892	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
5.789	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
5.774	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
5.741	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
5.713	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.688	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
5.674	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
5.602	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
5.599	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
5.431	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
5.367	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
5.337	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
5.223	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
5.140	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
5.104	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
5.073	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
5.032	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
5.031	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.015	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
4.930	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
4.921	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.879	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
4.852	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
4.808	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
4.763	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
4.719	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
4.693	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
4.684	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
4.673	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
4.615	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
4.579	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
4.551	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
4.540	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
4.532	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
4.348	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
4.268	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
4.141	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
4.115	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
4.050	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
4.023	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
4.012	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
3.921	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
3.841	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
3.779	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
3.749	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
3.716	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
3.629	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
3.604	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.500	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
3.470	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
3.363	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
3.265	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
3.244	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
3.216	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
3.194	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
3.084	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
3.072	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
3.060	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
3.039	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
2.996	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.960	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
2.898	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
2.890	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
2.880	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
2.877	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
2.797	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
2.741	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
2.706	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
2.693	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
2.689	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
2.685	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
2.655	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
2.601	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.594	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
2.572	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
2.542	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
2.542	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
2.485	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
2.481	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
2.459	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
2.403	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
2.336	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
2.234	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
2.160	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
2.134	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
2.122	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
2.068	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
2.022	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
2.005	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
1.980	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
1.963	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
1.768	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
1.738	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
1.669	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
1.635	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
1.631	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
1.562	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
1.555	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.546	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.533	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
1.517	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
1.496	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
1.471	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
1.346	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
1.345	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
1.283	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
1.238	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
1.203	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.170	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
1.160	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
1.156	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
1.137	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
1.093	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
1.090	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
1.044	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
1.041	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
0.992	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
0.952	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.886	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
0.877	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
0.859	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
0.841	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
0.812	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
0.780	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
0.775	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
0.751	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
0.743	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
0.735	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
0.559	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
0.555	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
0.537	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
0.523	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
0.509	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
0.456	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
0.429	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.424	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
0.369	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
0.359	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
0.302	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
0.278	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
0.256	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.164	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
0.113	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
0.101	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
0.095	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
0.053	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
0.027	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.009	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-0.014	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.041	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-0.057	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
-0.063	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
-0.082	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
-0.092	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-0.094	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
-0.096	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-0.149	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
-0.172	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
-0.188	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
-0.263	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
-0.281	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.392	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
-0.463	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.515	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-0.559	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.587	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
-0.590	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-0.593	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
-0.634	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
-0.669	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-0.705	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
-0.747	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.959	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-0.968	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
-0.995	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-1.178	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-1.232	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-1.265	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-1.309	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-1.433	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-1.518	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
-1.593	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
-1.633	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-1.649	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
-1.685	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
-1.686	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
-1.691	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
-1.723	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-1.831	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
-1.875	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
-1.894	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-2.047	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
-2.061	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
-2.212	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-2.220	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-2.251	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
-2.393	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-2.610	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-2.710	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
-2.780	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
-2.786	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
-2.851	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-2.956	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
-2.967	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
-3.043	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-3.077	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-3.086	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
-3.427	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
-3.526	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
-3.544	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-3.708	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-3.781	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
-3.914	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
-4.020	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
-4.122	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
-4.282	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
-4.351	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
-4.501	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-4.503	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
-4.510	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
-4.559	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
-4.583	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
-4.664	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
-4.842	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
-4.857	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
-4.875	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-4.889	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
-4.983	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
-5.047	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
-5.072	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
-5.142	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-5.159	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
-5.263	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-5.318	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
-5.558	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-5.927	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
-6.012	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-6.428	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
-6.598	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-6.725	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
-7.102	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-7.107	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
-8.180	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
-8.525	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
-8.651	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-8.793	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-8.905	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
-9.270	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-9.598	[short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?	Binary
-9.705	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
-10.019	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-10.319	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-10.328	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
-10.399	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-10.632	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-10.780	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-11.398	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-11.739	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-12.431	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-12.596	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
-12.686	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-12.836	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
-13.154	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
-13.750	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
-14.624	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-18.427	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-18.920	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-19.415	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-22.663	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
-31.261	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-31.864	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
-36.320	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
-37.752	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-41.374	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
-44.113	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
-44.892	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-47.167	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
-72.722	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
-85.087	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
-108.631	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
-111.783	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-115.092	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-128.621	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-192.124	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous