galen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.718	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
82.513	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
80.006	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
65.289	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
56.108	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
56.086	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
53.506	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
53.432	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (David Waihiga Mwaure)	Binary
52.945	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
50.614	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
45.842	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
44.851	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
43.071	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
41.523	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (61)	Binary
40.796	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
40.604	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
40.417	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
37.881	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
37.052	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
33.536	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
32.593	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
32.198	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
32.185	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.444	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
31.093	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
31.084	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
30.371	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
28.984	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
28.979	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
28.520	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto)	Binary
27.424	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
27.121	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
26.108	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
25.915	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
25.659	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
25.055	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
24.970	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
24.755	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
24.504	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16)	Continuous
24.472	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Yankees)	Binary
24.060	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
24.015	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
23.914	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
23.653	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
23.632	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
23.530	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
23.522	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
23.461	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
22.587	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
22.364	Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?	Binary
22.202	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
22.067	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
21.764	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
21.591	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
21.352	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
21.245	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
21.030	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
20.955	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
20.396	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
20.286	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
20.221	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
20.130	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
19.873	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
19.558	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
19.552	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
19.480	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
19.367	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
19.090	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
18.974	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
18.629	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
18.465	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
18.402	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
18.376	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
18.354	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
18.308	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
18.295	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
17.986	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
17.649	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
17.464	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
17.057	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
16.532	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
16.425	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
16.391	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
16.387	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
16.254	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
16.104	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
16.066	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
16.041	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
15.568	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
15.443	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
15.373	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
15.305	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
15.271	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
15.250	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros)	Binary
15.139	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
14.899	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
14.829	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
14.773	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
14.615	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
14.554	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Tom Emmer)	Binary
14.287	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (St. Louis Cardinals)	Binary
14.219	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
14.072	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
14.070	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
14.039	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
13.889	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
13.819	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
13.738	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
13.713	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
13.596	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
13.567	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
13.474	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
13.464	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
13.404	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
13.404	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
13.178	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
13.024	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
12.945	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
12.902	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
12.710	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
12.556	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
12.447	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
12.430	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
12.307	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
12.276	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
12.256	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
12.180	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
12.074	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
12.029	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
11.945	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
11.915	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
11.870	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
11.758	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
11.703	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Drew Ferguson)	Binary
11.633	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2022)	Continuous
11.598	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
11.576	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
11.505	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
11.361	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
11.017	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
11.002	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Angels)	Binary
10.982	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
10.896	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
10.879	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
10.730	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
10.645	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
10.508	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
10.497	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison)	Binary
10.312	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber)	Binary
10.309	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
10.306	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
10.288	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
10.218	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
10.170	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
10.124	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
10.088	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
10.065	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
10.028	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
9.912	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
9.840	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
9.687	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
9.671	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
9.642	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
9.627	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
9.596	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
9.528	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
9.481	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
9.446	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
9.441	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
9.436	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
9.426	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
9.338	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
9.214	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
9.069	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
9.061	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
9.050	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
8.978	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
8.946	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
8.931	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (63)	Binary
8.886	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Argentine Peso $)	Binary
8.785	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
8.739	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cleveland Guardians)	Binary
8.613	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
8.599	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
8.595	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
8.468	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
8.457	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
8.444	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
8.403	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners)	Binary
8.304	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
8.301	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
8.163	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
8.078	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
8.078	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
8.055	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Jim Banks)	Binary
7.998	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
7.961	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Mets)	Binary
7.904	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Tampa Bay Rays)	Binary
7.881	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (George Wajackoyah)	Binary
7.859	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
7.854	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
7.781	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
7.738	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
7.728	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
7.691	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
7.643	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
7.623	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
7.518	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
7.482	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis)	Binary
7.481	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
7.221	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
7.182	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
7.084	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
7.080	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Boston Red Sox)	Binary
7.035	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Baltimore Orioles)	Binary
6.984	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
6.976	What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?	Continuous
6.889	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
6.856	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
6.813	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
6.779	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
6.707	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Wesley So)	Binary
6.696	[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?	Binary
6.678	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
6.631	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
6.451	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
6.431	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
6.427	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
6.396	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
6.375	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
6.367	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
6.348	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
6.340	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
6.325	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
6.273	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
6.272	Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?	Binary
6.160	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
6.154	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
6.084	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
6.064	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
5.962	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
5.918	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
5.911	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
5.894	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
5.883	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
5.858	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
5.843	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
5.838	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga)	Binary
5.832	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
5.792	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
5.789	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
5.776	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Francisco Giants)	Binary
5.745	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
5.722	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
5.719	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
5.659	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
5.636	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
5.593	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Toronto Blue Jays)	Binary
5.474	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
5.449	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
5.447	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago Cubs)	Binary
5.395	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
5.384	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
5.374	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
5.369	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
5.275	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago White Sox)	Binary
5.260	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
5.251	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
5.242	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
5.171	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
5.169	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
5.096	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Washington Nationals)	Binary
5.071	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Oakland Athletics)	Binary
5.027	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Diego Padres)	Binary
5.001	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton)	Binary
4.992	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
4.986	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.926	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc)	Binary
4.911	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
4.907	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
4.874	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
4.863	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
4.796	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Colorado Rockies)	Binary
4.791	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
4.755	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?	Continuous
4.739	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
4.690	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
4.596	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
4.591	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
4.576	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
4.530	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Kansas City Royals)	Binary
4.528	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cincinnati Reds)	Binary
4.483	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
4.420	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.357	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Pittsburgh Pirates)	Binary
4.314	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
4.290	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Milwaukee Brewers)	Binary
4.265	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
4.261	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
4.246	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Detroit Tigers)	Binary
4.215	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
4.214	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
4.201	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (64)	Binary
4.190	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (66)	Binary
4.089	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
4.049	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
4.038	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
4.022	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
3.952	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
3.934	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
3.915	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
3.911	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
3.909	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
3.904	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
3.899	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
3.876	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
3.842	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
3.805	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
3.804	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
3.793	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
3.747	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
3.669	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
3.655	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
3.607	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
3.605	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
3.582	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
3.497	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
3.453	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
3.438	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
3.431	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
3.383	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
3.360	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
3.350	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
3.325	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
3.301	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
3.280	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
3.185	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
3.119	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
3.106	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
3.074	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.063	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
3.022	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
3.011	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
2.996	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
2.996	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
2.995	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
2.930	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
2.930	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
2.899	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
2.893	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
2.829	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
2.814	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
2.748	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
2.737	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
2.644	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ding Liren)	Binary
2.640	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
2.639	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Matthias Blübaum)	Binary
2.620	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
2.591	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
2.581	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
2.577	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen)	Binary
2.532	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
2.487	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
2.474	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16)	Continuous
2.447	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
2.431	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
2.401	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
2.401	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
2.347	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
2.316	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
2.316	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
2.314	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Miami Marlins)	Binary
2.313	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
2.279	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
2.259	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
2.190	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
2.186	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hjörvar Steinn Grétarsson)	Binary
2.182	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell)	Binary
2.180	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
2.111	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
2.110	Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?	Binary
2.090	When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order?	Continuous
2.020	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
1.983	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
1.980	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
1.898	Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?	Binary
1.867	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
1.835	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
1.822	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
1.745	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Richárd Rapport)	Binary
1.741	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Teimour Radjabov)	Binary
1.709	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
1.706	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
1.686	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
1.616	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
1.616	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
1.559	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
1.524	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)	Binary
1.520	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Catherine McKenney)	Binary
1.501	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
1.497	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
1.485	How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022?	Continuous
1.414	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz)	Binary
1.402	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
1.388	Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto?	Binary
1.364	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
1.345	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
1.221	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
1.154	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez)	Binary
1.129	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
1.110	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
1.078	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
1.069	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
1.049	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
1.034	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Marine Le Pen)	Binary
1.034	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
1.032	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
0.911	Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?	Binary
0.885	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
0.804	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
0.775	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
0.706	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.685	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
0.643	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.627	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
0.606	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Mark Sutcliffe)	Binary
0.604	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
0.588	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
0.366	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.343	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
0.336	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
0.335	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
0.230	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Bob Chiarelli)	Binary
0.195	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Jacob Solomon)	Binary
0.194	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Gregory Jreg Guevara)	Binary
0.188	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
0.184	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Other)	Binary
0.151	Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?	Binary
0.144	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Ade Olumide)	Binary
0.111	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Zed Chebib)	Binary
0.098	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Nour Kadri)	Binary
0.080	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Brandon Bay)	Binary
0.067	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Mike Maguire)	Binary
0.064	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Celine Debassige)	Binary
0.063	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Bernard Couchman)	Binary
0.035	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Param Singh)	Binary
0.031	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Graham MacDonald)	Binary
0.021	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
-0.013	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
-0.121	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-0.151	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
-0.194	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
-0.267	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-0.271	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
-0.286	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Élisabeth Borne)	Binary
-0.304	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
-0.376	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
-0.623	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
-0.704	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
-1.059	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
-1.084	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-1.340	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
-1.408	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-2.338	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-2.385	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
-2.500	Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-2.515	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-2.631	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (65)	Binary
-3.073	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16)	Continuous
-3.188	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
-3.420	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
-4.052	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
-4.320	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (62)	Binary
-4.627	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
-4.630	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
-4.645	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-5.700	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
-5.766	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
-6.826	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
-7.871	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
-8.330	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16)	Continuous
-10.254	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-13.381	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous
-15.057	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-23.924	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
-31.902	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-63.349	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
-63.413	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-63.490	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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