Vang

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.933	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
79.426	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
68.336	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
66.001	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
65.776	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
65.696	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
62.423	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
61.956	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
61.716	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
60.794	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
59.690	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
53.176	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
49.820	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
46.496	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
43.895	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
42.937	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
42.376	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
39.942	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
38.457	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
37.426	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
37.390	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
36.353	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
35.828	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
35.795	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
34.921	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
34.611	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
34.035	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
33.359	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
32.438	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
32.377	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
31.827	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
31.427	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
31.425	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
31.363	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
31.292	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
31.208	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
29.443	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
29.186	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
29.020	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
28.721	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
28.080	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
27.529	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
27.276	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
27.041	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
26.948	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
25.741	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
25.171	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
24.931	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
24.555	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
24.129	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
23.944	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
23.570	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
23.500	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
23.446	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
23.075	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
22.637	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
21.994	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
21.651	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
21.576	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
21.479	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
21.182	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
21.113	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
20.912	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
20.827	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
20.760	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
20.733	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
20.366	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
20.242	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
20.173	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
19.666	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
19.515	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
19.441	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
19.383	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
19.042	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
18.737	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
18.607	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
18.401	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
18.396	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
18.279	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
18.269	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
18.100	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
17.922	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
17.655	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
17.425	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
17.422	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
17.353	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
17.078	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
17.006	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
16.938	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
16.897	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
16.712	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
16.680	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
16.515	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
16.482	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
16.142	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
15.664	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
15.613	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
15.407	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
15.261	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
15.149	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
14.998	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
14.869	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
14.843	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
14.826	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
14.823	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
14.804	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
14.744	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
14.730	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
14.494	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
14.491	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
14.353	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
14.285	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
14.246	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
13.958	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
13.927	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
13.807	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
13.788	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
13.771	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
13.769	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
13.767	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
13.755	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
13.729	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
13.679	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
13.497	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
13.456	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
13.427	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
13.409	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
13.351	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
13.298	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
13.245	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
13.129	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
13.105	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
12.921	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
12.894	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
12.769	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
12.690	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
12.685	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
12.524	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
12.264	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
12.177	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
12.166	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
12.098	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
11.973	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
11.972	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
11.789	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
11.602	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
11.526	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
11.504	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
11.283	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
11.225	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
11.198	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
10.966	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
10.941	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
10.938	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
10.910	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
10.859	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
10.806	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
10.420	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
10.401	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
10.041	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
9.995	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
9.950	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
9.770	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
9.769	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
9.749	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
9.622	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
9.594	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
9.525	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
9.491	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
9.474	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
9.472	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
9.424	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
9.348	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
9.326	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
9.303	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
9.275	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
9.144	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
9.131	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
9.098	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
8.984	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
8.901	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
8.733	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.729	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
8.625	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
8.469	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
8.427	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
8.374	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
8.346	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.308	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
8.244	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
8.156	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
8.055	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
8.006	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
7.999	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
7.955	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
7.795	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
7.627	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
7.572	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
7.571	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
7.533	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
7.496	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
7.449	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
7.376	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
7.369	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
7.279	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
7.218	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
7.108	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
7.094	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
6.995	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
6.967	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
6.950	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
6.695	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
6.622	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
6.600	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
6.561	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
6.506	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
6.496	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
6.438	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
6.376	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
6.339	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
6.243	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
6.203	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
6.072	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
6.028	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.974	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.901	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
5.852	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
5.795	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.791	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
5.739	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
5.685	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
5.678	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.594	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
5.588	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
5.579	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
5.574	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
5.553	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
5.430	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
5.429	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
5.404	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
5.384	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
5.372	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
5.302	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
5.299	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
5.266	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
5.242	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
5.190	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
5.190	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
5.141	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
4.987	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
4.773	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
4.747	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.724	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
4.716	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
4.696	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
4.631	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
4.582	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
4.533	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
4.470	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
4.458	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
4.438	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
4.434	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
4.380	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
4.378	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
4.371	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
4.363	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
4.303	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
4.229	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
4.220	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
4.200	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
4.180	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
4.035	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
4.031	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
3.991	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
3.830	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
3.782	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.643	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
3.585	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
3.543	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
3.496	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
3.432	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
3.289	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
3.260	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
3.205	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
3.088	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
3.085	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
3.084	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
3.077	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
2.833	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
2.770	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
2.582	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
2.518	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
2.511	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
2.469	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
2.445	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
2.439	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
2.437	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
2.423	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
2.414	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
2.350	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
2.312	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
2.247	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
2.225	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
2.220	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
2.204	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
2.182	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
2.175	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
2.137	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
2.091	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
1.967	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
1.918	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
1.898	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
1.806	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
1.793	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
1.793	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
1.719	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
1.675	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
1.650	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
1.573	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
1.562	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
1.561	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
1.512	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
1.463	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.404	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
1.307	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
1.255	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
1.237	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.203	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
1.172	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.847	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
0.816	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
0.770	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
0.762	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
0.679	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
0.675	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
0.668	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
0.640	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
0.635	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
0.529	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
0.509	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.407	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
0.372	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.311	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
0.195	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
0.192	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
0.188	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.082	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-0.072	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-0.081	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
-0.083	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
-0.169	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
-0.183	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
-0.329	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
-0.407	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
-0.486	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
-0.523	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-0.876	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-1.308	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
-1.419	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
-1.440	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
-1.574	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-1.707	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
-1.784	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-1.855	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-2.010	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-2.032	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-2.127	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-2.479	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-2.883	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-3.304	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
-3.346	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-3.511	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-3.615	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-3.669	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-4.970	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-4.976	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-5.724	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
-6.875	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-7.587	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-7.851	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-8.259	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
-8.346	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
-8.386	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-11.623	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-13.253	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
-14.608	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-15.602	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
-18.022	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-18.720	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
-19.617	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
-20.845	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-22.020	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
-25.788	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-31.306	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-36.048	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-36.251	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-45.429	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-48.153	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
-54.915	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-77.960	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-85.462	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
-96.326	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-200.855	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous