aristophanes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.97	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.918	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
88.615	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
65.822	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
57.965	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
56.137	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
53.066	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
52.812	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
49.378	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
42.862	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
40.709	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
38.767	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
38.532	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
37.348	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
37.043	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
36.891	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
36.374	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
35.978	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
35.761	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
33.754	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
31.952	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
30.413	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
29.914	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
27.743	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
27.439	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
27.214	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
27.210	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
26.537	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
24.901	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
24.263	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
24.006	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
23.548	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
22.989	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
22.084	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
21.809	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
18.330	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
17.949	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
17.715	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
17.596	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
17.395	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
16.896	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
15.742	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
15.578	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
15.502	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
15.078	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
14.363	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
14.335	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
13.714	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
13.298	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
13.174	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
12.934	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
12.881	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
12.861	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
12.675	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
12.602	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
12.144	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
11.972	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
11.889	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
11.474	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
11.150	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
11.127	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
10.932	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
10.305	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
10.109	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
9.798	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
9.730	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
8.684	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
8.386	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
8.297	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
8.009	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
7.151	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
6.987	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
6.962	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (September 1, 2022)	Continuous
6.757	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
6.733	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
6.576	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
6.548	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
6.003	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
5.896	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)	Binary
5.640	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
5.496	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
5.394	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
5.360	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
5.305	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
4.874	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
4.847	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.796	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.526	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Marine Le Pen)	Binary
4.043	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
3.990	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
3.744	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
3.601	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.144	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
3.099	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
2.745	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
2.589	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
2.477	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
2.386	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
2.142	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
1.626	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
1.588	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
1.544	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022)	Continuous
1.517	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
1.493	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
1.439	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
1.411	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
1.395	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
1.387	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
1.238	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
1.184	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
1.177	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
1.128	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
1.040	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
0.982	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
0.809	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
0.701	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
0.689	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
0.603	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023)	Continuous
0.552	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
0.544	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.499	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
0.391	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
0.345	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.159	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.133	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
0.077	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
0.044	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
0.034	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
0.012	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
-0.035	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-0.232	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
-0.415	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
-0.424	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
-0.622	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
-0.777	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
-0.963	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
-1.610	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
-1.902	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-2.210	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
-2.580	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
-2.821	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Élisabeth Borne)	Binary
-2.911	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
-3.097	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
-3.112	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
-3.146	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
-3.277	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
-4.018	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
-5.805	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
-6.276	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
-6.575	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
-6.784	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
-7.462	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-7.690	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
-8.123	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-8.423	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
-10.531	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
-17.580	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
-23.430	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
-26.969	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
-35.549	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary

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aristophanes

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aristophanes