aristophanes

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.709	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
107.632	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
74.676	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
68.129	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
65.925	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
61.675	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
51.380	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
43.159	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
36.054	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
35.831	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
35.251	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
33.750	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
33.184	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
32.931	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
29.271	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
28.115	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
27.796	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
27.506	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
26.994	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
26.456	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
24.613	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
24.476	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
23.942	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
23.582	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.007	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
20.759	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
20.750	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
20.717	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
19.103	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
18.813	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
18.671	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
18.604	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
18.478	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.439	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.891	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
17.612	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
17.115	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
16.693	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
16.161	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
15.490	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
15.278	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
13.997	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
13.711	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.568	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
13.429	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
13.429	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
12.562	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.561	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
12.326	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
12.096	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
12.029	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
11.998	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
11.433	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
11.156	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
10.858	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
10.690	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.518	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
10.273	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
10.144	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
9.898	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
9.461	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
9.426	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
9.055	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
8.992	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
8.641	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
8.274	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
8.104	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
7.999	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
7.627	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
7.258	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
7.185	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.993	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.823	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
6.791	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
6.776	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
6.038	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
5.960	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
5.933	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
5.870	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
5.803	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.754	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.502	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.449	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
5.348	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
5.226	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.977	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.901	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
4.438	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
4.158	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.056	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
3.991	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
3.933	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
3.697	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
3.679	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
3.537	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
3.220	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
2.992	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.148	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
1.489	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
1.476	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
1.449	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.416	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
1.055	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
0.970	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
0.920	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.835	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
0.563	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
0.505	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.215	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.093	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.017	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.016	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.013	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.008	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.008	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.004	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
-0.090	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
-0.115	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
-0.209	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
-0.373	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
-0.630	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
-0.724	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-1.023	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
-1.150	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.312	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
-1.385	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
-3.120	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-3.922	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-4.706	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
-5.156	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
-6.695	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
-7.984	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
-10.044	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-11.000	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-14.483	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
-20.443	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
-24.309	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-25.955	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
-26.288	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-33.091	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-45.644	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
-100.831	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary