SimonM

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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15.42	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
191.303	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
117.213	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
98.635	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
92.420	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
78.348	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
77.179	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
75.108	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
69.676	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
69.302	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
63.510	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
59.819	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
58.022	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
57.716	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
56.626	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
56.110	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
55.650	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
50.760	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
46.328	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
45.307	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
45.177	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
42.730	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
41.895	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
40.304	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
40.233	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
39.594	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
39.589	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
39.153	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
37.276	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
36.918	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
36.259	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
35.725	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
34.707	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
34.056	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
33.464	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
31.805	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
31.742	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
30.932	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
30.682	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
30.533	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
30.527	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
30.319	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
29.985	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
29.854	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
29.687	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
29.459	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
27.998	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
27.670	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
27.149	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
26.644	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
26.434	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
26.289	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
26.133	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
25.467	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
25.069	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
24.964	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
24.672	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
23.852	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
23.322	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
23.230	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
22.773	Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?	Binary
22.732	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
22.578	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
22.086	What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?	Continuous
21.910	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
21.109	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
21.025	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?	Continuous
20.900	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
20.583	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
20.555	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
20.528	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
20.277	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
19.767	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
19.732	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
19.515	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
19.123	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
18.583	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
18.510	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
18.412	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
18.323	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
18.271	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
18.258	When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order?	Continuous
18.198	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
17.954	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
17.672	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
17.647	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
17.568	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
17.129	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
16.996	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
16.424	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
16.289	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
15.666	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
15.593	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
15.432	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
15.029	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
14.964	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
14.848	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
14.760	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
14.607	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
14.307	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
14.211	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
14.134	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
14.119	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
14.023	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
14.021	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
13.634	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
13.504	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
13.337	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
12.981	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
12.854	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
12.601	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
12.415	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
12.028	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
11.921	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
11.686	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
11.554	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
11.528	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
11.503	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
11.484	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
11.164	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
10.847	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
10.731	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
10.596	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
10.568	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
10.557	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
10.125	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
9.979	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
9.909	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
9.854	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
9.761	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
9.728	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
9.678	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
9.497	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
9.375	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
9.336	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
9.186	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
8.948	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
8.932	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
8.657	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
8.617	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
8.410	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
8.340	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
8.314	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
8.241	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
8.199	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
8.199	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
8.065	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
7.961	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
7.786	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
7.417	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
7.114	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
6.814	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
6.804	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
6.783	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
6.694	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
6.694	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
6.656	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
6.614	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
6.562	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
6.373	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
6.153	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
5.873	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
5.733	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
5.462	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
5.401	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
5.348	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
5.010	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
4.944	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
4.937	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
4.590	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
4.580	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.353	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
4.332	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.293	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
4.219	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
3.884	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
3.855	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
3.823	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
3.729	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
3.524	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
3.300	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
3.240	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
3.166	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
3.150	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
2.761	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
2.726	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
2.693	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
2.500	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
2.476	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
2.261	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
2.217	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
1.981	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
1.908	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
1.849	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
1.840	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
1.831	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
1.625	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
1.480	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
0.970	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?	Continuous
0.894	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
0.521	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
0.357	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
0.287	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.186	Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?	Binary
0.076	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
0.046	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
-0.025	Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
-0.804	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
-1.139	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
-1.496	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
-1.669	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
-1.744	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
-1.935	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-2.288	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
-3.214	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
-4.002	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
-4.175	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-4.200	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
-4.226	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-4.353	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-5.398	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
-5.721	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
-7.286	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-7.319	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
-7.565	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
-9.089	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-9.405	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
-10.881	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
-12.306	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
-15.711	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
-16.192	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-21.911	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-28.911	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
-29.892	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
-30.520	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous
-65.768	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
-87.337	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
-104.159	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous

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SimonM

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SimonM