Glossy

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

9.54	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
103.214	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
80.798	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
80.256	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
78.625	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
64.118	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
59.366	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
58.731	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
56.568	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
56.387	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
56.115	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
49.196	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
45.973	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
44.703	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
42.738	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
41.486	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
41.013	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
40.475	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
40.315	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
37.504	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
37.335	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
36.966	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
35.702	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
33.460	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
29.107	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
26.871	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
25.269	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
25.162	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
23.707	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
23.239	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
22.979	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
22.424	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
21.806	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
21.522	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
21.290	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
20.822	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
18.376	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
17.813	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
17.676	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
17.299	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
17.098	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
16.111	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
14.642	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
13.664	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
12.871	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
12.087	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
11.461	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
11.372	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
11.358	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
11.277	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
11.268	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
10.150	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
9.620	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
9.341	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
8.670	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
8.513	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
8.478	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
8.133	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
8.098	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
7.212	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
6.740	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
6.494	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
6.488	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
5.884	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
5.801	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
5.707	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
5.264	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
4.982	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
4.389	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.220	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
4.137	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
3.879	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
3.869	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
3.714	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
3.554	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
3.506	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
3.464	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
3.302	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
3.240	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
2.425	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
2.262	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
2.010	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
1.736	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
1.649	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
1.604	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
1.389	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
1.104	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
1.026	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
0.800	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
0.683	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
0.547	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
0.396	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
0.208	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.093	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
0.074	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
-2.507	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022?	Continuous
-3.000	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
-3.157	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
-3.965	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
-4.537	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
-4.816	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
-5.246	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-6.766	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
-9.493	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-10.956	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022?	Continuous
-11.168	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-13.321	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
-14.022	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-15.534	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-16.032	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
-19.240	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
-21.510	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 8th and July 1st 2022?	Continuous
-29.116	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-30.880	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-37.904	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
-39.739	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
-40.100	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
-46.607	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-65.637	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-121.846	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-182.602	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Glossy

User

Glossy