JonathanShi

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.81	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
173.939	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
158.552	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
155.196	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
138.467	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
131.446	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
128.914	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
125.428	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
120.142	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
119.717	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
118.244	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
113.423	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
113.372	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
112.186	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
110.786	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
109.724	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
109.489	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
108.116	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
107.025	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
82.002	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
78.213	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
74.557	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
70.822	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
64.629	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
58.864	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
58.750	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
57.138	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
55.136	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
54.724	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
53.012	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
52.292	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
51.440	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
50.075	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
47.262	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
47.081	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
46.730	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
46.466	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
46.381	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
45.153	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
43.929	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
43.753	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
43.578	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
41.687	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
41.596	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
41.019	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
40.517	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
40.470	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
40.296	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
40.213	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
39.651	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
39.082	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
37.990	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
35.932	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
35.885	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
35.144	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
34.727	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
34.455	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
34.371	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
32.914	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
32.533	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
32.427	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
31.097	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
30.886	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
29.717	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
29.367	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
28.377	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
27.984	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
27.963	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
27.920	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
27.270	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
26.679	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
26.533	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
25.570	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
24.868	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
24.785	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
24.264	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
23.382	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
23.272	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
23.035	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
22.595	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
22.542	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
22.054	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
21.590	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
21.532	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
21.509	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
21.435	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
20.866	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
20.550	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
20.548	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
20.257	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
20.203	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
20.128	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
19.779	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
19.610	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
19.382	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
19.194	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
18.941	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
18.936	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
18.504	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
18.042	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
17.821	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
17.743	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
17.302	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
17.183	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
17.016	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
17.003	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
16.959	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
16.719	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
16.602	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
16.530	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
16.247	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
16.227	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
16.101	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
15.843	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
15.161	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
15.154	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
15.009	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
14.696	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
14.591	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
14.184	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
13.793	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
13.662	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
13.616	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
13.598	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
13.366	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
13.349	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
13.236	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
12.738	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
12.538	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
12.326	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
12.212	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
12.201	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
12.070	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
12.002	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
11.901	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
11.765	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
11.674	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
11.488	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
11.123	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
11.108	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
10.870	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
10.859	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
10.584	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
10.202	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
9.945	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
9.570	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
9.564	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
9.531	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
9.377	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
9.251	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
9.212	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
8.991	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
8.816	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
8.662	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
8.635	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
8.566	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
8.529	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
8.490	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
8.264	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
8.250	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
8.173	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
8.115	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
8.018	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
7.948	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
7.859	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
7.777	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
7.642	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
7.625	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
7.517	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
7.488	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
7.450	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
7.309	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
7.308	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
7.176	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
6.959	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
6.812	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
6.745	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
6.104	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.058	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
6.035	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
5.901	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
5.820	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
5.658	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
5.610	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
5.598	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
5.426	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
5.403	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
5.173	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
5.157	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
5.019	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
4.998	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
4.889	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
4.734	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
4.723	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
4.708	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
4.614	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
4.584	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
4.430	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
4.382	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
4.353	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
4.197	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.051	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
4.032	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
3.955	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
3.936	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
3.920	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
3.764	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
3.670	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
3.663	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
3.656	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
3.628	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
3.595	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
3.422	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
3.388	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
3.332	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
3.311	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
3.279	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.215	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
3.185	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
3.138	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
3.132	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
3.108	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
3.106	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
2.891	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
2.855	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
2.836	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
2.799	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
2.732	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
2.681	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
2.595	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
2.329	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
2.317	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
2.238	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
2.224	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
2.176	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
1.962	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
1.955	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
1.953	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
1.656	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
1.635	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
1.631	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
1.590	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
1.525	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
1.436	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
1.430	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
1.358	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
1.341	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
1.321	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
1.128	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
1.076	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.048	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
1.046	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
0.963	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
0.939	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
0.930	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
0.911	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
0.891	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
0.890	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
0.871	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.738	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.738	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
0.722	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
0.685	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.683	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
0.680	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
0.623	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
0.617	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
0.560	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
0.548	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
0.545	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
0.537	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.489	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
0.448	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
0.439	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
0.414	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.404	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
0.389	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
0.306	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
0.286	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
0.267	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
0.264	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
0.260	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
0.259	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.221	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.194	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
0.186	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.178	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
0.093	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
0.090	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
0.058	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
0.049	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
0.046	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
0.043	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
0.041	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
0.040	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
0.038	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.030	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
0.018	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-0.025	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-0.027	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-0.028	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
-0.037	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
-0.065	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-0.073	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-0.098	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
-0.111	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
-0.145	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-0.216	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
-0.249	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
-0.436	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.454	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-0.459	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.610	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-0.674	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-0.805	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-0.851	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
-0.937	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.054	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
-1.073	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
-1.152	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-1.315	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
-1.350	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-1.353	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-1.403	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-1.547	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
-1.709	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
-1.863	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
-1.918	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-2.262	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-2.314	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
-2.369	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
-2.396	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
-3.040	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
-3.316	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
-3.432	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
-3.514	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
-3.588	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
-3.619	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-3.642	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
-3.710	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
-3.732	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
-3.738	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
-3.750	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-3.831	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
-3.879	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
-3.914	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-4.408	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
-4.779	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
-4.930	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-5.134	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-5.238	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
-5.605	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-5.684	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-6.090	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-6.287	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
-6.569	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-6.758	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
-7.655	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
-7.710	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-7.993	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-8.483	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
-9.110	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
-9.312	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-9.671	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
-9.671	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
-11.318	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
-12.531	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
-12.924	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-14.458	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-15.395	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-15.815	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-19.025	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-20.097	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
-20.658	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-20.916	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
-23.078	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
-25.858	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-33.471	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-37.096	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-39.161	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
-42.369	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-43.963	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
-47.830	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
-52.023	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-53.211	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-69.977	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-70.732	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
-87.420	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-126.517	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
-198.750	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous