Alexander230

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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2.87	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
154.091	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years))	Binary
96.919	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
91.521	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
61.544	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
51.872	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
47.685	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
41.234	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
36.756	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
36.432	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
36.003	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
35.852	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
33.271	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
31.795	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
31.307	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
28.060	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
27.370	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
23.200	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
19.968	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
18.261	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.829	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
16.548	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
16.408	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
16.316	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
16.174	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
16.157	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
16.155	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
15.430	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
15.368	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
15.078	Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?	Binary
15.072	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
14.771	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
14.196	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
13.267	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
13.247	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
12.961	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years))	Binary
12.708	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
12.657	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
12.637	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
11.979	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
11.963	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
11.883	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
11.830	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
10.878	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
10.660	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
10.613	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
10.523	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
10.469	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
10.198	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
9.862	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
9.597	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
9.261	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
9.261	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
9.001	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
8.712	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
8.614	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
8.060	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
7.851	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
7.842	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
7.705	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
7.658	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
7.632	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
7.459	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
7.368	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
7.269	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
7.172	What percentage of the vote will Abdel Fattah El-Sisi win in the first round of the 2023 Egyptian Presidential election?	Continuous
7.117	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
6.893	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
6.716	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
6.695	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.226	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
6.094	Next US Speaker of the House? (Jim Jordan (R)) (No) → US Government Shutdown Before 2024?	Binary
5.916	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
5.899	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
5.893	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
5.744	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
5.718	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
5.686	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
5.574	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
5.573	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
5.538	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
5.467	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
5.321	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
5.313	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
5.312	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
5.138	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.084	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
5.081	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
5.057	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
5.004	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
4.890	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
4.773	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
4.567	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
4.538	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
4.250	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
4.064	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
3.801	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
3.775	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
3.767	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
3.611	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.566	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
3.491	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
3.488	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
3.310	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.263	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
3.048	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
3.036	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
3.035	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
3.004	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.941	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
2.929	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.890	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
2.644	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
2.632	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
2.557	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
2.543	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
2.430	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
2.388	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
2.295	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
2.239	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
2.206	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
2.147	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.969	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
1.961	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
1.923	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.882	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
1.835	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
1.680	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
1.679	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.672	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
1.603	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
1.561	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.489	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
1.391	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
1.381	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
1.376	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
1.322	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
1.283	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
1.202	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.179	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.167	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.087	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
1.042	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
0.998	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
0.856	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
0.843	What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023?	Continuous
0.821	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
0.799	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
0.773	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
0.683	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.668	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
0.573	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
0.529	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
0.519	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
0.464	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
0.396	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
0.355	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.328	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
0.304	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
0.297	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.276	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
0.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
0.180	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.179	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
0.112	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
0.042	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
0.015	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.012	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
-0.021	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
-0.040	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
-0.148	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-0.306	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
-0.465	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
-0.713	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
-0.806	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
-0.862	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
-1.050	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-1.171	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
-1.175	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
-1.207	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
-1.232	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
-1.471	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-1.708	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
-1.714	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
-1.939	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
-1.983	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
-2.054	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
-2.269	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
-2.379	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
-2.594	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
-2.862	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
-3.073	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 7)	Continuous
-3.398	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
-3.515	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-3.620	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
-3.791	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
-3.922	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.001	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-4.040	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
-4.064	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
-4.458	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.721	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-5.073	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
-5.187	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
-5.252	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
-5.352	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
-5.646	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
-5.888	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
-6.283	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-7.061	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
-7.092	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
-7.191	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
-7.204	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-7.705	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
-8.124	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
-8.577	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
-8.663	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
-10.049	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
-10.392	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
-10.440	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
-10.489	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
-10.527	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
-10.599	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-10.765	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-11.573	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
-11.607	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
-11.664	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
-11.710	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
-11.931	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
-12.268	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-12.797	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-12.804	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-14.447	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-16.205	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-16.340	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
-17.392	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
-18.350	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-20.063	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
-20.291	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
-24.210	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-24.241	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
-26.165	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
-39.607	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-64.962	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
-77.766	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-85.078	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
-91.259	How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?	Continuous
-114.602	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous