PepeS

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.539	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
113.659	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
95.572	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
83.179	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
77.572	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
75.429	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
72.324	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
65.585	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
64.205	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
62.427	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
61.296	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 9, 2022 and July 2, 2022?	Continuous
55.353	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
55.270	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2022)	Continuous
54.664	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
54.006	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
50.406	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
46.965	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
46.808	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
46.076	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
44.898	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
44.032	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
43.492	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (61)	Binary
42.442	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
42.072	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
39.716	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
38.498	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
36.896	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
36.659	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
36.528	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
36.130	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 4)	Continuous
34.667	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
34.531	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
34.408	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (David Waihiga Mwaure)	Binary
34.177	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
34.012	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 25)	Continuous
33.960	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
33.857	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
33.720	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
32.676	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
31.161	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Yankees)	Binary
29.636	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
28.965	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
28.689	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 30)	Continuous
28.447	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
28.309	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
28.177	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
28.143	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
28.065	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
27.801	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
27.481	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
26.806	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
26.469	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
26.365	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
26.161	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (May 14)	Continuous
26.042	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
25.912	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
25.588	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
25.577	How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?	Continuous
25.489	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
25.418	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
25.384	Will "Counterfeit Diversity: How Strategically Misrepresenting Gender Diversity Dampens Organizations’ Perceived Sincerity and Elevates Women’s Identity Threat Concerns" (JPSP, 2022) replicate?	Continuous
25.202	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
25.152	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
24.887	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
24.753	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
24.663	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
24.528	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
24.487	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
24.312	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
23.703	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Tom Emmer)	Binary
23.627	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
23.522	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
23.477	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
23.263	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
23.095	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
22.936	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
22.923	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
22.857	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
22.641	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
22.120	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
22.091	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
21.943	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
21.914	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
21.900	Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?	Binary
21.889	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
21.519	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
21.334	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
21.319	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
21.064	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
21.026	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
20.937	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
20.911	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
20.831	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
20.752	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
20.363	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
20.326	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 25)	Continuous
20.270	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
20.219	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
20.215	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
20.098	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
19.978	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
19.918	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
19.900	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
19.570	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
19.336	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
19.234	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
19.032	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
19.017	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
18.870	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
18.682	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
18.676	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (63)	Binary
18.486	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
18.341	How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022?	Continuous
18.328	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
18.111	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
17.654	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
17.592	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
17.540	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
17.498	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
17.498	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (St. Louis Cardinals)	Binary
17.460	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (64)	Binary
17.408	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
17.379	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
17.378	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
17.276	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
17.266	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
17.252	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
17.129	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
16.983	Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto?	Binary
16.971	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (July 2)	Continuous
16.944	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 25)	Continuous
16.888	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
16.813	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
16.780	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
16.777	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
16.619	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto)	Binary
16.459	Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?	Binary
16.447	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (May 14)	Continuous
16.429	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
16.406	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
16.396	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
16.368	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
16.287	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (October 2022)	Continuous
16.259	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
16.253	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous
16.237	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
15.998	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
15.888	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
15.873	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
15.871	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
15.834	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
15.780	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
15.725	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
15.659	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Argentine Peso $)	Binary
15.610	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
15.514	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
15.396	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
15.389	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
15.268	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Drew Ferguson)	Binary
15.196	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
14.768	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
14.554	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
14.542	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 11)	Continuous
14.521	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
14.432	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2022)	Continuous
14.113	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
13.996	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
13.958	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
13.894	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
13.860	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
13.859	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
13.793	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
13.744	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
13.699	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
13.659	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
13.550	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
13.481	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
13.360	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
13.344	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 4)	Continuous
13.099	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
13.065	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
13.054	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
13.054	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
12.789	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 30)	Continuous
12.769	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
12.722	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
12.705	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
12.699	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
12.690	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
12.587	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
12.558	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
12.524	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
12.444	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
12.335	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
12.333	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Mets)	Binary
12.309	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
12.252	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
12.232	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
12.171	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
12.126	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
12.125	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
12.094	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
12.036	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
12.023	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
12.021	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
11.820	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
11.809	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
11.809	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
11.763	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (May 14)	Continuous
11.584	How many new Pokemon will Pokemon Scarlet and Violet introduce?	Continuous
11.543	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber)	Binary
11.244	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
11.114	How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Wednesday, November 23rd (the day before Thanksgiving), as reported by FlightAware?	Continuous
11.083	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
11.054	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
10.933	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison)	Binary
10.906	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
10.829	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
10.699	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
10.625	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
10.624	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Angels)	Binary
10.477	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?	Continuous
10.407	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
10.396	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
10.385	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cleveland Guardians)	Binary
10.262	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Tampa Bay Rays)	Binary
10.081	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
10.081	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
10.000	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
9.931	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
9.872	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Diego Padres)	Binary
9.871	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
9.856	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
9.701	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
9.696	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
9.668	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
9.650	Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?	Binary
9.576	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
9.567	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners)	Binary
9.507	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
9.489	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
9.477	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
9.314	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
9.311	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
9.266	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
9.254	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
9.242	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
9.227	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
9.203	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
9.174	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
9.172	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (May 14)	Continuous
9.168	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
9.113	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Wesley So)	Binary
9.094	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
9.063	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
9.042	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
8.975	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
8.923	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
8.903	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
8.879	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
8.837	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
8.818	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
8.808	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
8.757	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
8.728	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
8.717	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ding Liren)	Binary
8.706	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
8.635	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
8.632	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
8.626	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga)	Binary
8.608	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
8.583	How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022?	Continuous
8.482	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
8.334	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Boston Red Sox)	Binary
8.279	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis)	Binary
8.236	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
8.219	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Jim Banks)	Binary
8.187	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
7.943	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
7.934	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
7.922	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022?	Continuous
7.902	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
7.861	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
7.860	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Baltimore Orioles)	Binary
7.848	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
7.815	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
7.797	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
7.763	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
7.549	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Francisco Giants)	Binary
7.518	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
7.513	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (George Wajackoyah)	Binary
7.496	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
7.482	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
7.468	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
7.452	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
7.449	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 18)	Continuous
7.447	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
7.439	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago White Sox)	Binary
7.407	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
7.385	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
7.373	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
7.366	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
7.353	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Milwaukee Brewers)	Binary
7.316	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
7.293	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
7.230	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
7.157	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
7.007	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
6.942	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
6.921	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
6.914	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
6.892	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
6.797	Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?	Binary
6.775	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
6.668	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
6.580	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
6.493	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
6.472	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
6.304	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
6.302	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
6.239	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago Cubs)	Binary
6.184	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
6.173	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
6.158	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
6.110	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
6.107	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
6.076	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Oakland Athletics)	Binary
6.045	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
5.946	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Washington Nationals)	Binary
5.822	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Toronto Blue Jays)	Binary
5.757	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
5.727	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
5.596	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
5.582	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
5.522	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
5.488	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Colorado Rockies)	Binary
5.467	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
5.428	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (May 14)	Continuous
5.414	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton)	Binary
5.412	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
5.394	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
5.385	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
5.383	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
5.364	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc)	Binary
5.363	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cincinnati Reds)	Binary
5.296	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Kansas City Royals)	Binary
5.259	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hjörvar Steinn Grétarsson)	Binary
5.168	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Pittsburgh Pirates)	Binary
5.136	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Matthias Blübaum)	Binary
5.104	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
5.102	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022?	Continuous
5.081	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
5.028	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Detroit Tigers)	Binary
5.023	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
4.922	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
4.912	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
4.878	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
4.846	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
4.846	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
4.838	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
4.788	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
4.751	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
4.738	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.690	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
4.686	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
4.641	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
4.635	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Richárd Rapport)	Binary
4.545	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
4.544	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
4.453	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16)	Continuous
4.406	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
4.390	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
4.327	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 30)	Continuous
4.257	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
4.192	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
4.180	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
4.155	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
4.137	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
4.133	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 4)	Continuous
4.106	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Teimour Radjabov)	Binary
4.067	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
4.061	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
4.030	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
4.023	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 11)	Continuous
3.945	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
3.878	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16)	Continuous
3.822	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 30)	Continuous
3.809	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
3.738	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
3.707	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
3.678	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
3.663	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
3.628	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
3.601	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
3.556	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
3.538	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
3.500	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
3.485	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Élisabeth Borne)	Binary
3.484	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
3.473	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
3.472	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
3.443	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
3.411	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
3.347	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
3.317	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
3.280	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.274	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
3.262	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
3.250	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
3.196	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
3.067	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
3.062	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
3.054	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
2.957	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
2.929	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Miami Marlins)	Binary
2.922	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
2.856	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
2.811	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
2.809	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
2.806	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
2.756	When will the 30-days Google Trends interest for the term "China protests" peak?	Continuous
2.732	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
2.719	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
2.716	What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?	Continuous
2.703	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
2.603	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
2.563	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
2.474	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell)	Binary
2.413	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
2.369	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
2.324	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
2.299	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)	Binary
2.285	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
2.278	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
2.256	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023)	Continuous
2.237	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
2.227	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
2.177	Will Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022?	Binary
2.134	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
2.089	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
2.031	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
1.977	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
1.930	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
1.875	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
1.741	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
1.727	Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?	Binary
1.710	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
1.702	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
1.680	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez)	Binary
1.672	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16)	Continuous
1.657	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 30)	Continuous
1.620	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
1.605	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
1.590	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz)	Binary
1.576	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (July 2)	Continuous
1.555	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
1.527	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
1.495	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
1.391	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
1.294	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
1.225	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
1.206	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
1.185	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
1.108	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Marine Le Pen)	Binary
1.070	When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order?	Continuous
1.045	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
0.996	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.970	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
0.791	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
0.723	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
0.717	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
0.678	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
0.635	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
0.627	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
0.508	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
0.501	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 11)	Continuous
0.384	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
0.358	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
0.344	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
0.267	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
0.242	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.212	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
0.196	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
0.151	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
0.150	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
0.147	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
0.132	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
0.100	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
0.058	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
0.056	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
0.045	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
0.034	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 22nd of April, 2022?	Continuous
0.018	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16)	Continuous
-0.011	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
-0.124	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
-0.182	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
-0.211	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
-0.342	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (July 2)	Continuous
-0.366	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
-0.550	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
-0.555	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (June 25)	Continuous
-0.557	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
-0.699	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-0.731	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-1.037	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
-1.065	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
-1.135	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
-1.186	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-1.350	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
-1.586	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 4)	Continuous
-1.701	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-1.845	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
-2.008	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-2.236	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 4)	Continuous
-2.386	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-2.473	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
-2.649	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
-2.944	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
-3.014	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-3.149	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
-3.446	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
-3.613	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-4.143	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
-4.170	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-4.494	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-4.687	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
-4.722	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-4.724	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
-5.023	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (June 4)	Continuous
-5.130	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-5.647	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (May 14)	Continuous
-6.350	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 18)	Continuous
-7.015	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (July 2)	Continuous
-7.065	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
-7.202	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 11)	Continuous
-7.252	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
-7.445	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
-8.060	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen)	Binary
-8.718	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-8.901	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
-8.915	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-9.062	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
-9.670	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 25)	Continuous
-10.223	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (62)	Binary
-10.376	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
-10.555	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-11.025	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
-11.515	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
-11.633	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-11.658	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (June 11)	Continuous
-11.740	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (June 18)	Continuous
-11.954	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022)	Continuous
-12.308	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
-12.399	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 18)	Continuous
-12.620	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
-12.922	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-13.327	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 8th and July 1st 2022?	Continuous
-14.047	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
-14.075	Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?	Binary
-14.567	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
-14.821	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
-14.958	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
-15.566	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
-15.726	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-15.774	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30)	Continuous
-16.280	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
-16.286	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 18)	Continuous
-16.549	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 18)	Continuous
-17.160	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (July 2)	Continuous
-18.086	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
-21.242	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
-21.541	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 25)	Continuous
-21.645	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (65)	Binary
-21.793	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-23.802	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-26.554	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
-29.184	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-29.918	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
-33.892	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-34.664	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
-35.965	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-37.914	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
-40.008	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-47.209	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-47.876	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros)	Binary
-49.619	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (July 2)	Continuous
-50.045	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 11)	Continuous
-52.185	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-56.041	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
-62.916	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
-63.498	[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?	Binary
-67.971	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
-95.557	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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