PepeS

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.299	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
92.424	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
77.802	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
72.024	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
66.544	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
53.692	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
49.610	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
47.669	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
44.344	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
44.163	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
41.878	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
41.018	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
36.511	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
35.758	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
33.329	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
32.897	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
32.745	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
32.346	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
31.903	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
30.954	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
29.485	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
29.399	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
28.614	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
28.477	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
28.412	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
28.218	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
28.014	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
26.692	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
26.674	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
26.647	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
26.459	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
25.942	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
25.852	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
25.741	Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?	Binary
25.563	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
25.379	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
24.590	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
24.501	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
24.484	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
23.531	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
23.409	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
23.126	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
22.798	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023)	Continuous
22.646	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
22.363	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
22.025	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
21.977	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
21.721	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
21.241	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
20.611	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
20.455	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
20.400	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
20.340	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
20.257	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
20.250	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
19.724	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
19.603	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
19.567	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (June 2023)	Continuous
19.240	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
19.160	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
18.739	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
18.665	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
18.593	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
18.557	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
17.852	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
17.752	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
17.680	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
17.216	In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0?	Continuous
17.177	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
16.981	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
16.873	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
16.735	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
16.732	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
16.726	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
16.700	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
16.436	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
16.325	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
16.286	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
16.248	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
16.182	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.105	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
16.069	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
15.956	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
15.921	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.893	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
15.853	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
15.737	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
15.721	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
15.686	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
15.673	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
15.618	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
15.270	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.040	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
14.896	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
14.608	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
14.419	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
14.339	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
14.221	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
14.017	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
13.982	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
13.768	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
13.732	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
13.699	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
13.465	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
13.449	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
13.057	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
12.878	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
12.840	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
12.524	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
12.371	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
12.225	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
12.163	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
11.862	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
11.812	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
11.796	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
11.666	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
11.560	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
11.498	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
11.474	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
11.392	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
11.373	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
11.338	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
11.318	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
11.232	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
11.121	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
11.089	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
10.938	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
10.783	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
10.741	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
10.602	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
10.565	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
10.358	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
10.335	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
10.263	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
10.252	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
10.243	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
10.129	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
9.859	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
9.610	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
9.596	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
9.560	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
9.267	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
9.249	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
9.193	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
9.176	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
9.067	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
8.946	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
8.844	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
8.686	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
8.677	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.609	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
8.586	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.573	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
8.514	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
8.495	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
8.486	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
8.470	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
8.323	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.321	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
8.306	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
8.269	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
8.184	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.127	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
8.110	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
8.100	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
8.052	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
8.024	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
7.943	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
7.891	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (National)	Continuous
7.836	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
7.793	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years))	Binary
7.760	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
7.695	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
7.677	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
7.673	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
7.617	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
7.533	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
7.484	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
7.472	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
7.421	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
7.404	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
7.392	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
7.233	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
7.222	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
7.155	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
7.147	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
7.133	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.115	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
7.018	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
6.979	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
6.960	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
6.907	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
6.888	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
6.828	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
6.724	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
6.711	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
6.689	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.565	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
6.522	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
6.509	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
6.426	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.416	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.379	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
6.349	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.345	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
6.307	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
6.302	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
6.279	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
6.272	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
6.263	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
6.254	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
6.214	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
6.185	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
6.136	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.072	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
6.032	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
5.972	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
5.961	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
5.917	What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023?	Continuous
5.906	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
5.906	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
5.880	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
5.860	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
5.726	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
5.717	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
5.709	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
5.704	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
5.700	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
5.670	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
5.629	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
5.592	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
5.572	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
5.463	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
5.444	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
5.429	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
5.358	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.301	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
5.206	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
5.171	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
5.167	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
5.157	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
5.152	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
5.138	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
5.125	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
5.117	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
5.079	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
4.988	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
4.973	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
4.964	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
4.917	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.891	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
4.871	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
4.831	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.583	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.567	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
4.542	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
4.535	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
4.535	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
4.500	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
4.486	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.483	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
4.387	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
4.350	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
4.275	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
4.221	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
4.168	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
4.119	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
3.928	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
3.926	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.820	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
3.807	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
3.800	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
3.767	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
3.754	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
3.744	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
3.742	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.697	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
3.684	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
3.672	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Green)	Continuous
3.667	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
3.647	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
3.480	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
3.470	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
3.467	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
3.450	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
3.332	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
3.323	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
3.310	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
3.306	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
3.292	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
3.235	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Nov-2023)	Continuous
3.087	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
3.082	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.076	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
3.073	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.052	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
3.021	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
2.963	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
2.948	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
2.832	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
2.829	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
2.822	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
2.821	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
2.792	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
2.778	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
2.752	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
2.699	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
2.626	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
2.615	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.606	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
2.601	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
2.566	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
2.530	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
2.512	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
2.403	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.362	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
2.333	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
2.311	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
2.271	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
2.217	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
2.207	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
2.164	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
2.151	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
2.136	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
1.992	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
1.992	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
1.972	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
1.942	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
1.938	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Baltimore Orioles)	Binary
1.903	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
1.899	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
1.872	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
1.840	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
1.830	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.829	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
1.776	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
1.768	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 14)	Continuous
1.747	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
1.742	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
1.718	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
1.711	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
1.697	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
1.665	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
1.655	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
1.650	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.520	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
1.472	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
1.456	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
1.390	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
1.362	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
1.352	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
1.263	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
1.259	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
1.257	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
1.170	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
1.142	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
1.137	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
1.133	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
1.124	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
1.112	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
1.078	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
1.058	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
1.012	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
1.008	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
1.002	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.999	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
0.969	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
0.897	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
0.863	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
0.861	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild)	Binary
0.836	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
0.830	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
0.801	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
0.792	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
0.776	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.773	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
0.761	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
0.754	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.738	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
0.711	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
0.679	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.655	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
0.644	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
0.637	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
0.580	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.576	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.570	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
0.526	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
0.525	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
0.516	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
0.500	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
0.491	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
0.469	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.444	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
0.435	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
0.429	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
0.418	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.416	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
0.399	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.385	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.382	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
0.373	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
0.362	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
0.347	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
0.272	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
0.261	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
0.238	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
0.236	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.230	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
0.227	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
0.219	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
0.215	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
0.210	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
0.193	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
0.185	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
0.175	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.170	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
0.168	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
0.153	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.144	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
0.144	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.140	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.132	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
0.128	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.127	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.112	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.100	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
0.096	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.096	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.086	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
0.085	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
0.082	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
0.069	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
0.051	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
0.048	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.030	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
0.029	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
0.027	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.021	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
0.020	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.005	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
-0.001	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-0.006	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-0.015	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
-0.037	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
-0.116	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
-0.147	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
-0.184	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.270	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023)	Continuous
-0.335	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-0.516	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-0.685	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
-0.825	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (ACT)	Continuous
-1.136	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
-1.163	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-1.505	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
-1.689	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
-1.856	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-2.084	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-2.320	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-2.345	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-2.374	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
-2.392	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-2.533	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-2.625	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.755	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-2.875	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-2.948	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.121	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
-3.121	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
-3.137	Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?	Binary
-3.310	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
-3.756	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-3.791	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-4.039	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
-4.199	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-4.203	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
-4.213	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
-4.223	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-4.725	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
-4.921	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-4.955	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
-5.177	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
-5.193	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
-5.579	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-5.638	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
-5.678	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-5.680	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-5.890	Next US Speaker of the House? (Jim Jordan (R)) (No) → US Government Shutdown Before 2024?	Binary
-6.174	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-6.576	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
-7.126	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
-7.574	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-8.168	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-8.202	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
-8.799	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-8.872	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-8.973	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-9.640	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-10.467	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
-10.572	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-10.836	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-11.084	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
-13.846	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
-14.027	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-14.142	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
-14.402	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2024)	Continuous
-15.491	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-16.188	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-16.209	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
-16.390	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-16.769	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-17.821	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
-18.037	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-19.648	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-20.006	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-20.493	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-21.041	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
-21.164	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-23.315	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-24.675	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-26.790	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-28.711	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-29.587	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-29.785	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-31.965	Next US Speaker of the House? (Steve Scalise (R)) (No) → US Government Shutdown Before 2024?	Binary
-32.333	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-32.460	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
-34.594	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-38.067	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-39.418	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-39.782	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-42.516	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-43.578	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Te Pāti Māori)	Continuous
-50.491	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-50.856	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-52.767	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years))	Binary
-59.238	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-60.218	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-68.808	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
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