84.542 | 99.6% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
74.082 | 83.7% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
66.525 | 99.6% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
66.002 | 97.0% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
65.530 | 99.7% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
56.878 | 80.1% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
54.508 | 99.3% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
53.665 | 84.5% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
51.247 | 99.7% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
50.885 | 98.0% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
50.821 | 72.1% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
50.244 | 77.1% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
50.142 | 75.6% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
48.881 | 84.0% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
46.778 | 77.1% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
46.388 | 94.1% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
44.393 | 98.8% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
43.970 | 99.6% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
42.108 | 99.3% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
41.588 | 98.8% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
40.890 | 97.3% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
40.677 | 61.0% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
39.905 | 62.9% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
39.214 | 99.5% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
38.691 | 99.6% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
38.581 | 98.8% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
38.496 | 91.6% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
38.469 | 94.1% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
38.416 | 97.3% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
36.810 | 77.0% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
36.802 | 98.5% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
35.595 | 98.8% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
35.086 | 99.3% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
33.970 | 75.6% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
31.776 | 78.3% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
31.245 | 99.0% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
30.475 | 87.7% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
30.405 | 98.8% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
30.390 | 100.0% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.595 | 97.0% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
29.510 | 99.6% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
29.479 | 84.2% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
29.371 | 83.2% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
28.949 | 80.3% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
28.568 | 92.8% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
28.473 | 99.6% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
28.096 | 99.9% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.662 | 99.9% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
26.623 | 99.5% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
26.599 | 61.3% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
26.568 | 92.8% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
26.457 | 98.8% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
26.371 | 86.3% | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
25.988 | 99.8% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
25.563 | 60.7% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
25.382 | 99.6% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
25.372 | 59.2% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
25.292 | 97.0% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
25.073 | 75.6% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
24.946 | 98.9% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
24.271 | 98.6% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
23.700 | 99.6% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
23.547 | 99.3% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
23.317 | 99.9% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.809 | 34.4% | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
22.679 | 99.7% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.157 | 86.7% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
22.013 | 99.3% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.810 | 87.5% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.742 | 64.3% | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
21.622 | 51.3% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
21.557 | 51.5% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
21.433 | 97.3% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.026 | 97.7% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
20.860 | 93.6% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.800 | 97.5% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
19.541 | 98.0% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.837 | 73.8% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
18.309 | 96.2% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.155 | 100.0% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.101 | 75.6% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
17.960 | 99.8% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
17.922 | 92.4% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
17.696 | 98.6% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
17.650 | 82.7% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
17.475 | 87.4% | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
17.115 | 99.6% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
16.976 | 89.8% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
16.806 | 99.6% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
16.635 | 70.5% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
16.617 | 99.7% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
16.519 | 99.6% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
16.473 | 87.5% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
16.304 | 40.2% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
16.213 | 99.0% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
16.119 | 61.8% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.019 | 74.9% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
15.930 | 94.3% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
15.781 | 99.0% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.771 | 92.6% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
15.498 | 94.6% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
15.484 | 80.5% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
15.141 | 43.9% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique? | Multiple Choice |
15.131 | 96.3% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
15.098 | 73.5% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
14.794 | 84.1% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
14.420 | 98.8% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
14.226 | 98.8% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
14.023 | 27.1% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
13.809 | 95.2% | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
13.516 | 77.8% | Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election? | Binary |
13.401 | 69.2% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
13.077 | 99.5% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
13.076 | 91.9% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
12.711 | 98.8% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
12.645 | 87.6% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
12.461 | 95.3% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
12.317 | 78.8% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
12.274 | 95.5% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.223 | 76.2% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
12.120 | 96.4% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
11.952 | 99.8% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
11.932 | 75.6% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
11.917 | 99.5% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
11.852 | 55.0% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
11.825 | 55.9% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
11.717 | 99.7% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
11.689 | 55.2% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
11.584 | 87.7% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
11.538 | 96.6% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
11.088 | 98.5% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.942 | 98.1% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
10.941 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.920 | 39.2% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.540 | 26.4% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
10.519 | 24.5% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
10.164 | 16.6% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
10.074 | 99.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
9.837 | 98.2% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
9.716 | 39.8% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.642 | 57.7% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
9.425 | 56.9% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.219 | 62.4% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
9.119 | 92.8% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
9.098 | 95.0% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
8.671 | 98.7% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
8.642 | 98.7% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
8.435 | 98.8% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
8.376 | 65.7% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
8.365 | 99.9% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
8.202 | 80.9% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.158 | 99.0% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
8.131 | 98.5% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.129 | 98.9% | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
8.066 | 98.6% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.743 | 61.9% | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
7.495 | 57.7% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.084 | 99.3% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.880 | 89.5% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
6.488 | 54.5% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
6.344 | 85.1% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
6.243 | 79.1% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
5.950 | 99.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
5.838 | 75.0% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
5.501 | 3.7% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
5.419 | 97.1% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.349 | 32.9% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
5.168 | 46.3% | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
5.145 | 99.8% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
5.072 | 37.5% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.048 | 99.6% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
4.983 | 94.8% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.980 | 99.7% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
4.974 | 11.7% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
4.863 | 84.1% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.785 | 20.8% | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
4.723 | 38.8% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
4.667 | 92.8% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.640 | 99.4% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
4.520 | 9.5% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.413 | 99.6% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.377 | 99.7% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.926 | 96.3% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
3.919 | 45.1% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
3.608 | 15.1% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
3.530 | 85.9% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.475 | 26.3% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.431 | 99.6% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
3.206 | 99.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
3.189 | 94.1% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
2.956 | 75.6% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
2.936 | 27.7% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
2.889 | 21.8% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
2.636 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Austria) | Binary |
2.596 | 99.1% | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
2.583 | 97.6% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
2.553 | 48.3% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
2.389 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Armenia) | Binary |
2.347 | 89.0% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
2.302 | 29.9% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria? | Multiple Choice |
1.774 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ukraine) | Binary |
1.764 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Greece) | Binary |
1.538 | 93.4% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.437 | 58.9% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
1.395 | 61.2% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
1.325 | 40.0% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
1.160 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Netherlands) | Binary |
1.058 | 19.7% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
1.014 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland) | Binary |
0.862 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland) | Binary |
0.717 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Norway) | Binary |
0.654 | 8.9% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
0.653 | 2.7% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
0.632 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Lithuania) | Binary |
0.537 | 0.7% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.460 | 51.7% | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
0.444 | 1.5% | Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024? | Binary |
0.353 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia) | Binary |
0.258 | 1.6% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.106 | 29.5% | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
-0.592 | 81.5% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
-0.793 | 49.7% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
-1.109 | 13.8% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Belgium) | Binary |
-1.823 | 41.7% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
-1.865 | 85.2% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
-2.075 | 21.3% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
-2.396 | 99.3% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
-2.963 | 100.0% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-3.346 | 12.4% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
-3.443 | 58.2% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-3.469 | 64.4% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
-3.533 | 99.2% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
-3.619 | 26.5% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-4.115 | 86.0% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
-4.130 | 61.7% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
-5.035 | 98.4% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
-5.099 | 34.4% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
-5.786 | 99.7% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
-5.842 | 82.2% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
-6.370 | 94.3% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-7.724 | 67.6% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
-8.308 | 99.4% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
-9.485 | 99.8% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
-11.017 | 43.5% | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
-11.809 | 99.8% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-12.005 | 21.0% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-12.823 | 98.6% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-12.975 | 14.1% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-15.192 | 93.0% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
-19.001 | 89.0% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-22.793 | 70.4% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
-25.430 | 95.4% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
-30.870 | 48.3% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-34.962 | 97.3% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
-35.239 | 79.3% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
-35.854 | 26.2% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-40.334 | 98.7% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
-48.461 | 55.8% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-50.349 | 59.8% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
-67.421 | 91.5% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-67.526 | 93.0% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-72.201 | 100.0% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-78.040 | 88.8% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
-78.283 | 98.3% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-92.625 | 97.0% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
-125.817 | 64.6% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
-129.479 | 99.5% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |