85.123 | 94.9% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
82.899 | 98.6% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
69.861 | 86.7% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
63.321 | 99.8% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
59.418 | 94.5% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
55.018 | 94.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
52.703 | 94.9% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
52.613 | 94.9% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
49.486 | 73.2% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
46.525 | 99.9% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
43.865 | 94.9% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
42.793 | 99.9% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
39.483 | 99.8% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
39.194 | 94.9% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
38.539 | 99.8% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
37.697 | 99.6% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.654 | 98.8% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
36.518 | 94.9% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
36.236 | 94.9% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
35.645 | 94.5% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
34.913 | 94.9% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
34.093 | 62.2% | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
33.734 | 99.2% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
32.155 | 90.7% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
30.818 | 99.7% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
30.299 | 99.8% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
29.915 | 99.3% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
29.716 | 98.6% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
29.536 | 99.9% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
28.968 | 99.9% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
28.872 | 99.9% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
28.609 | 94.9% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
27.840 | 99.9% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
26.759 | 98.9% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
26.551 | 99.8% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
26.448 | 98.9% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
24.752 | 94.9% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
24.671 | 99.7% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
24.629 | 94.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
24.504 | 99.5% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.554 | 99.3% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
23.372 | 94.9% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
23.079 | 99.6% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
23.045 | 94.9% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
23.010 | 100.0% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
21.921 | 45.4% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
20.930 | 99.7% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
20.426 | 99.9% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
19.879 | 99.9% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.796 | 94.1% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
17.969 | 100.0% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.957 | 94.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
17.886 | 87.3% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
17.524 | 98.0% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
16.442 | 94.9% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
16.353 | 99.6% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.276 | 99.3% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
16.058 | 99.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.057 | 99.9% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
15.939 | 99.3% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.872 | 56.9% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
15.458 | 99.3% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
15.439 | 99.9% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
15.073 | 99.2% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.866 | 99.9% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
14.689 | 56.9% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
14.392 | 99.8% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
13.802 | 94.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
13.424 | 99.3% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
13.100 | 45.0% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
13.075 | 99.8% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
12.991 | 94.7% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
12.940 | 94.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
12.909 | 98.7% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
12.788 | 99.9% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
12.245 | 91.1% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
12.184 | 99.9% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
11.812 | 99.1% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
11.784 | 99.5% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.770 | 99.6% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.761 | 94.9% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
11.759 | 99.9% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
11.743 | 99.7% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
11.719 | 94.9% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
11.281 | 99.0% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
11.068 | 99.9% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
10.969 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
10.774 | 94.9% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
10.254 | 87.9% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
10.224 | 99.9% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
9.722 | 96.9% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
9.708 | 99.5% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
8.746 | 97.5% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
8.707 | 99.7% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
8.698 | 13.8% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
8.028 | 72.5% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
7.703 | 99.9% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
7.693 | 50.7% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
7.171 | 88.9% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
6.499 | 39.8% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
6.306 | 99.6% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
6.237 | 23.9% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
6.205 | 99.9% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
6.045 | 90.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.027 | 99.8% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.015 | 90.6% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.718 | 40.1% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.368 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
5.245 | 94.9% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
4.717 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.564 | 97.6% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
4.304 | 94.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
3.397 | 9.0% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
3.358 | 14.5% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
3.332 | 99.6% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.952 | 98.0% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
2.274 | 99.8% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
1.894 | 14.1% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.927 | 97.7% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.911 | 48.0% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
0.202 | 33.4% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.055 | 0.5% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.301 | 99.2% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.612 | 98.9% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
-2.822 | 5.9% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
-2.904 | 99.2% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
-4.883 | 16.4% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-7.408 | 42.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-8.187 | 96.7% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
-12.454 | 98.7% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-12.801 | 99.9% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
-21.333 | 43.9% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
-36.203 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-64.511 | 93.2% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |