kjz

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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25.15		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
98.960	96.9%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
86.521	97.9%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
69.779	99.9%	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
61.699	97.8%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
59.086	99.9%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
54.501	96.7%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
50.471	96.1%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
44.310	99.4%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
42.132	98.5%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
41.173	98.6%	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
39.443	99.5%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
32.057	97.6%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
31.333	99.0%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
26.458	99.7%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
24.288	99.9%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
22.093	96.7%	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
21.874	99.9%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
20.137	99.4%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
17.272	25.4%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
17.186	98.7%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
17.055	98.9%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
16.455	99.7%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
15.714	98.9%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
14.488	99.8%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
13.810	97.4%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
13.274	99.8%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
12.858	98.9%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
11.265	98.6%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
9.786	99.8%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
8.548	10.4%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
8.410	31.0%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
4.584	99.6%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
3.597	99.7%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
2.552	98.8%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
2.401	5.7%	Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?	Binary
1.996	99.6%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
1.793	99.4%	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
-0.185	0.7%	Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-2.034	95.9%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-2.855	66.3%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-3.149	99.2%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
-3.981	8.6%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-22.225	99.8%	Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?	Multiple Choice
-28.560	98.5%	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice

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