203.636 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
116.122 | How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update? | Continuous |
115.195 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022? | Continuous |
102.335 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 9, 2022 and July 2, 2022? | Continuous |
91.931 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022? | Continuous |
91.081 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2) | Continuous |
81.344 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
79.004 | What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022? | Continuous |
78.224 | Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022? | Binary |
77.132 | What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022? | Continuous |
76.124 | Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? | Binary |
73.484 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
71.301 | When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk? | Continuous |
66.806 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 30) | Continuous |
65.721 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? | Continuous |
64.551 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022? | Continuous |
63.714 | Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022? | Binary |
61.496 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 8th and July 1st 2022? | Continuous |
58.414 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
58.387 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? | Continuous |
57.351 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? | Continuous |
56.780 | What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022? | Continuous |
55.443 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022? | Continuous |
55.195 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19) | Continuous |
54.184 | Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022? | Binary |
52.135 | Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? | Binary |
52.037 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19) | Continuous |
51.027 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19) | Continuous |
50.823 | How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023? | Continuous |
50.067 | When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order? | Continuous |
48.631 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2022) | Continuous |
46.731 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19) | Continuous |
46.060 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022? | Continuous |
45.680 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
45.227 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022? | Continuous |
44.450 | What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
43.411 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Yankees) | Binary |
42.829 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022? | Continuous |
41.828 | How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
41.790 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022? | Continuous |
41.579 | On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak? | Continuous |
41.265 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022? | Continuous |
40.305 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? | Continuous |
40.263 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022? | Continuous |
40.094 | What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022? | Continuous |
39.968 | How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022? | Continuous |
38.665 | What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022? | Continuous |
38.368 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (David Waihiga Mwaure) | Binary |
37.975 | Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
36.961 | What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022? | Continuous |
36.480 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19) | Continuous |
36.133 | How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022? | Continuous |
35.969 | Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
35.829 | Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
35.483 | Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022? | Binary |
34.202 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
33.845 | What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28? | Continuous |
33.734 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022? | Continuous |
33.186 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023? | Binary |
33.023 | Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? | Binary |
32.371 | How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022? | Continuous |
32.132 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5) | Continuous |
32.042 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022? | Continuous |
31.553 | How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
31.552 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022? | Continuous |
31.167 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022? | Continuous |
29.532 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
29.344 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022? | Continuous |
28.944 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19) | Continuous |
28.816 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5) | Continuous |
28.456 | Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
28.352 | Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons? | Binary |
27.159 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (May 14) | Continuous |
26.618 | Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
26.267 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022? | Continuous |
26.069 | Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022? | Binary |
25.922 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022? | Continuous |
25.420 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022? | Binary |
25.318 | Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
25.119 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (July 2) | Continuous |
24.678 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022? | Continuous |
24.497 | How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
24.496 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022? | Continuous |
24.172 | What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
24.133 | What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022? | Continuous |
24.102 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
23.805 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022? | Continuous |
23.790 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19) | Continuous |
23.195 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Dodgers) | Binary |
23.013 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?” | Continuous |
22.960 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022? | Continuous |
22.850 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022) | Continuous |
22.629 | Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023? | Binary |
22.332 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022? | Continuous |
22.282 | Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022? | Binary |
22.260 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19) | Continuous |
22.218 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022? | Continuous |
21.452 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022) | Continuous |
21.430 | How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Wednesday, November 23rd (the day before Thanksgiving), as reported by FlightAware? | Continuous |
21.159 | Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023? | Binary |
21.136 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022? | Continuous |
20.882 | Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023? | Binary |
20.761 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5) | Continuous |
20.081 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? | Continuous |
19.996 | How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022? | Continuous |
19.786 | What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022? | Continuous |
19.663 | How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022? | Continuous |
19.451 | What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
19.412 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
19.174 | How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections? | Continuous |
19.135 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022) | Continuous |
19.117 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022? | Continuous |
18.575 | Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022? | Binary |
18.129 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (St. Louis Cardinals) | Binary |
17.448 | What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022) | Continuous |
17.275 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023? | Binary |
17.067 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022? | Continuous |
16.861 | What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question? | Continuous |
16.601 | Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
15.617 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 11) | Continuous |
15.101 | Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
14.861 | What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual? | Continuous |
14.625 | Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023? | Binary |
14.492 | Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022? | Binary |
14.463 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5) | Continuous |
14.339 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023? | Binary |
14.277 | How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022? | Continuous |
14.172 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5) | Continuous |
14.098 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022? | Continuous |
14.082 | What will the price of ETH be on Dec 2, 2022 at noon EST? | Continuous |
14.037 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5) | Continuous |
13.950 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Angels) | Binary |
13.151 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Mets) | Binary |
12.966 | Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023? | Binary |
12.948 | Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona? | Binary |
12.907 | What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
12.832 | [Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard? | Continuous |
12.605 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19) | Continuous |
12.549 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22) | Continuous |
12.217 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2) | Continuous |
12.184 | In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack? | Continuous |
12.086 | Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022? | Binary |
11.720 | Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022? | Binary |
11.704 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022) | Continuous |
11.602 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022) | Continuous |
11.482 | If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto? | Binary |
11.334 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies) | Binary |
11.310 | Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? | Binary |
11.278 | Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024? | Binary |
11.268 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Atlanta Braves) | Binary |
10.989 | Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
10.873 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
10.813 | Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023? | Binary |
10.803 | Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
10.332 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cleveland Guardians) | Binary |
10.071 | How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022? | Continuous |
9.999 | Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022? | Binary |
9.534 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners) | Binary |
9.528 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
9.323 | Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
9.283 | What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022? | Continuous |
9.239 | Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
9.154 | Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023? | Binary |
8.749 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (George Wajackoyah) | Binary |
8.733 | Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best) | Binary |
8.512 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022? | Continuous |
8.382 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Boston Red Sox) | Binary |
8.316 | Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? | Binary |
8.288 | Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada? | Binary |
8.180 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022) | Continuous |
8.170 | Will Tether collapse before 2023? | Binary |
8.071 | Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023? | Binary |
7.998 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5) | Continuous |
7.970 | What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary? | Continuous |
7.933 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2) | Continuous |
7.882 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Baltimore Orioles) | Binary |
7.814 | [short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022? | Binary |
7.768 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto) | Binary |
7.685 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Tampa Bay Rays) | Binary |
7.416 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain) | Binary |
7.291 | Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022? | Binary |
7.286 | How many new Pokemon will Pokemon Scarlet and Violet introduce? | Continuous |
7.257 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (61) | Binary |
7.172 | Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022? | Binary |
7.062 | Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022? | Binary |
6.921 | By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light? | Binary |
6.896 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
6.863 | How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
6.734 | Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
6.660 | Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023? | Binary |
6.656 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022? | Continuous |
6.553 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."? | Continuous |
6.548 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 22nd of April, 2022? | Continuous |
6.500 | Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022? | Binary |
6.323 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Diego Padres) | Binary |
6.322 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22) | Continuous |
6.261 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago Cubs) | Binary |
6.260 | Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023? | Binary |
6.106 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Oakland Athletics) | Binary |
6.102 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5) | Continuous |
6.095 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (May 14) | Continuous |
6.021 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England) | Binary |
6.002 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 4) | Continuous |
5.963 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022? | Continuous |
5.961 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Washington Nationals) | Binary |
5.939 | Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022? | Binary |
5.938 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22) | Continuous |
5.868 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila) | Binary |
5.723 | Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022? | Binary |
5.604 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France) | Binary |
5.597 | Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
5.546 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”? | Continuous |
5.510 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Colorado Rockies) | Binary |
5.451 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor) | Binary |
5.377 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cincinnati Reds) | Binary |
5.318 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Kansas City Royals) | Binary |
5.317 | Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district? | Binary |
5.259 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
5.190 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Pittsburgh Pirates) | Binary |
5.089 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5) | Continuous |
5.050 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Detroit Tigers) | Binary |
5.041 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Francisco Giants) | Binary |
4.972 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)) | Binary |
4.967 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago White Sox) | Binary |
4.912 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19) | Continuous |
4.900 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Texas Rangers) | Binary |
4.836 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Minnesota Twins) | Binary |
4.810 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Arizona Diamondbacks) | Binary |
4.765 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022) | Binary |
4.544 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos) | Binary |
4.534 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga) | Binary |
4.391 | When will China end Covid Zero? | Continuous |
4.347 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Toronto Blue Jays) | Binary |
4.313 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel) | Binary |
4.277 | Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022? | Binary |
4.183 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
3.947 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove) | Binary |
3.929 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 18) | Continuous |
3.666 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5) | Continuous |
3.665 | Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
3.660 | Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023? | Binary |
3.521 | Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)? | Binary |
3.500 | Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? | Binary |
3.463 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022? | Binary |
3.422 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022? | Binary |
3.218 | Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023? | Binary |
3.187 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22) | Continuous |
3.176 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany) | Binary |
3.158 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil) | Binary |
3.101 | Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving? | Binary |
2.959 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022? | Binary |
2.944 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Miami Marlins) | Binary |
2.935 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones) | Binary |
2.912 | Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election? | Binary |
2.910 | Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday? | Binary |
2.885 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Milwaukee Brewers) | Binary |
2.853 | Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023? | Binary |
2.831 | Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023? | Binary |
2.827 | Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022? | Binary |
2.742 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay) | Binary |
2.633 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (May 14) | Continuous |
2.629 | Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022? | Binary |
2.556 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
2.541 | Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia? | Binary |
2.519 | Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election? | Binary |
2.506 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 11) | Continuous |
2.358 | Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best) | Binary |
2.283 | Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022? | Binary |
2.237 | Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022? | Binary |
2.230 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
2.203 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal) | Binary |
2.096 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat) | Binary |
2.079 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands) | Binary |
2.027 | If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN? | Continuous |
1.882 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? | Binary |
1.860 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi) | Binary |
1.810 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium) | Binary |
1.789 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023? | Binary |
1.769 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales) | Binary |
1.581 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023? | Binary |
1.496 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico) | Binary |
1.452 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco) | Binary |
1.419 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland) | Binary |
1.393 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker) | Binary |
1.382 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (63) | Binary |
1.378 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid) | Binary |
1.339 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
1.335 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22) | Continuous |
1.320 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan) | Binary |
1.305 | Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election? | Binary |
1.278 | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023? | Binary |
1.214 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia) | Binary |
1.194 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana) | Binary |
1.160 | Will Russia default on its debt in 2022? | Binary |
1.118 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (65) | Binary |
1.088 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia) | Binary |
1.083 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland) | Binary |
1.034 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada) | Binary |
1.003 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal) | Binary |
1.000 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America) | Binary |
0.932 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea) | Binary |
0.898 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador) | Binary |
0.885 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022) | Continuous |
0.874 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022) | Continuous |
0.799 | Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022? | Binary |
0.760 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar) | Binary |
0.743 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab) | Binary |
0.735 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (66) | Binary |
0.721 | How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022? | Continuous |
0.712 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia) | Binary |
0.710 | Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? | Binary |
0.698 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica) | Binary |
0.548 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
0.547 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia) | Binary |
0.522 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 30) | Continuous |
0.519 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
0.430 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark) | Binary |
0.397 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran) | Binary |
0.375 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
0.363 | [short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
0.334 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (64) | Binary |
0.308 | Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022? | Binary |
0.219 | Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously? | Binary |
0.217 | Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023? | Binary |
0.129 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (June 25) | Continuous |
0.112 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon) | Binary |
0.110 | Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022? | Binary |
0.108 | [short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (62) | Binary |
0.094 | Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Élisabeth Borne) | Binary |
0.062 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022? | Continuous |
0.052 | Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Marine Le Pen) | Binary |
0.038 | Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022? | Binary |
-0.003 | Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Jean-Luc MĂ©lenchon) | Binary |
-0.080 | Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League? | Binary |
-0.085 | Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union? | Binary |
-0.142 | Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022? | Binary |
-0.148 | Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023? | Binary |
-0.199 | Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023? | Binary |
-0.249 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer) | Binary |
-0.497 | Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
-0.580 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image? | Binary |
-0.581 | Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
-0.604 | Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022? | Binary |
-0.611 | Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district? | Binary |
-0.668 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (July 2) | Continuous |
-0.692 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022? | Binary |
-0.732 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? | Continuous |
-0.891 | What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
-1.037 | Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania? | Binary |
-1.113 | Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022? | Binary |
-1.121 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19) | Continuous |
-1.324 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22) | Continuous |
-1.848 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19) | Continuous |
-1.885 | Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022? | Binary |
-1.937 | Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022? | Binary |
-1.984 | Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections? | Binary |
-2.058 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5) | Continuous |
-2.063 | Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
-2.584 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022? | Continuous |
-2.686 | How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022? | Continuous |
-2.815 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022? | Continuous |
-2.881 | Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023? | Binary |
-3.032 | [Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the PrzewodĂłw strike before December? | Binary |
-3.622 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? | Continuous |
-3.689 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
-3.907 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 18) | Continuous |
-4.026 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina) | Binary |
-4.111 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022? | Continuous |
-6.328 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2) | Continuous |
-6.499 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
-6.738 | Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)? | Binary |
-6.993 | Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US? | Binary |
-7.209 | Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus? | Binary |
-7.910 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (May 14) | Continuous |
-8.359 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5) | Continuous |
-8.704 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16) | Continuous |
-9.569 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? | Continuous |
-9.895 | Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013? | Binary |
-10.294 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 25) | Continuous |
-10.988 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 30) | Continuous |
-10.999 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio? | Binary |
-11.717 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022? | Binary |
-12.228 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16) | Continuous |
-13.118 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 30) | Continuous |
-13.530 | Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022? | Binary |
-13.931 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 25) | Continuous |
-14.148 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022? | Binary |
-14.574 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (May 14) | Continuous |
-14.735 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 30) | Continuous |
-17.643 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022) | Continuous |
-18.171 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 4) | Continuous |
-18.832 | How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022? | Continuous |
-18.877 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt) | Binary |
-20.699 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
-20.989 | Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
-21.986 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022? | Binary |
-23.476 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022? | Binary |
-23.798 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022? | Binary |
-27.749 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (May 14) | Continuous |
-28.219 | What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
-30.665 | How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded? | Continuous |
-30.700 | Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022? | Binary |
-30.845 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros) | Binary |
-33.062 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022? | Binary |
-35.260 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30) | Continuous |
-40.412 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16) | Continuous |
-46.641 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2) | Continuous |
-55.532 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2) | Continuous |
-57.707 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss) | Binary |
-96.583 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16) | Continuous |
-114.747 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16) | Continuous |
-151.243 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16) | Continuous |