M

Joker

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Duration:1 year
Time Period:2023
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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4.21Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
80.066How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?Continuous
27.645Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?Binary
25.960Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?Binary
23.979Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?Binary
23.249Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?Binary
19.870Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?Binary
19.049Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)Binary
17.762Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?Binary
14.060Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?Binary
14.034Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?Binary
14.013Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)Binary
12.424Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?Binary
12.385Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)Binary
12.235Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?Binary
11.046Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)Binary
10.743Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)Binary
9.552Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?Binary
9.330Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)Binary
9.095Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?Binary
9.010Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?Binary
8.530Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?Binary
8.469Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?Binary
8.283Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?Binary
8.108Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?Binary
7.793Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?Binary
6.728Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?Binary
6.470Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?Binary
6.208Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?Binary
6.186Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?Binary
6.145Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?Binary
6.019Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?Binary
6.009Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?Binary
5.991Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?Binary
5.883Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?Binary
5.681Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?Binary
4.878Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?Binary
4.651Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)Binary
4.243Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?Binary
4.124Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?Binary
3.869Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?Binary
3.816Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)Binary
3.604Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?Binary
3.047Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?Binary
2.884Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?Binary
2.635Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?Binary
2.599Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?Binary
2.488Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)Binary
2.282Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?Binary
2.115Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?Binary
1.827Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?Binary
1.391Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)Binary
1.273Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)Binary
1.233Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)Binary
1.037Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)Binary
0.974ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?Binary
0.847Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)Binary
0.555Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)Binary
0.553Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?Binary
0.514Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)Binary
0.513Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?Binary
0.495Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)Binary
0.410Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?Binary
0.374Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)Binary
0.352Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)Binary
0.281Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)Binary
0.260Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)Binary
0.150Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?Binary
0.150Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?Binary
0.126Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?Binary
0.124Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?Binary
0.100Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?Binary
0.097Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?Binary
0.070Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)Binary
0.046Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?Binary
0.003[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))Binary
0.002When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?Continuous
-0.260Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)Binary
-0.262Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?Binary
-0.354Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?Binary
-0.847Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)Binary
-1.065Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?Binary
-1.447Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?Binary
-1.522Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?Binary
-4.135Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)Binary
-4.706Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?Binary
-6.683Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?Binary
-12.796Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?Binary
-17.118Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?Binary
-53.038Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?Binary
-55.859Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?Binary

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