73.785 | 99.8% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
64.037 | 99.8% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
54.322 | 99.8% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
52.966 | 99.8% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
51.340 | 99.8% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
48.771 | 48.6% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
41.873 | 97.9% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
41.796 | 80.8% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
41.773 | 99.8% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
41.752 | 72.4% | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
41.302 | 99.8% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
38.848 | 91.1% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.722 | 99.8% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
38.420 | 95.9% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
36.671 | 99.8% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
34.636 | 99.8% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
33.741 | 99.8% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
31.577 | 97.4% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
31.475 | 99.8% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
30.537 | 76.9% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
29.953 | 99.8% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
29.095 | 99.8% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
28.922 | 69.6% | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.492 | 56.8% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
26.123 | 84.8% | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
25.957 | 84.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
25.251 | 99.8% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
25.041 | 99.8% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
23.682 | 99.8% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
23.638 | 63.0% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.508 | 99.8% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
23.384 | 78.1% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
21.162 | 83.4% | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
20.088 | 97.8% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
19.020 | 60.2% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
19.000 | 45.1% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
18.587 | 84.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
17.574 | 76.1% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
16.777 | 97.8% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
16.654 | 92.2% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
16.484 | 94.5% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
15.935 | 99.8% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
15.892 | 99.8% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
15.709 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
15.356 | 73.8% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
15.077 | 62.6% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
14.474 | 88.5% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.996 | 28.5% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
12.735 | 57.3% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
12.593 | 88.0% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
12.584 | 82.0% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
12.581 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
12.406 | 99.8% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
12.286 | 32.3% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
12.049 | 68.7% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
11.697 | 99.8% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
11.594 | 99.8% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
10.924 | 49.3% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
10.819 | 99.8% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
10.729 | 14.5% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
10.540 | 42.4% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
10.057 | 99.8% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
9.193 | 41.2% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
9.028 | 67.9% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
8.750 | 99.8% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
8.665 | 66.0% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.546 | 94.9% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.512 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
7.067 | 36.4% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.036 | 8.9% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
6.854 | 63.1% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
5.710 | 95.9% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
5.642 | 28.6% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.593 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
4.962 | 99.8% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
4.959 | 92.1% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
4.546 | 8.2% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
4.392 | 32.1% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
4.197 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
3.834 | 6.4% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
3.423 | 73.5% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.366 | 61.8% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
3.324 | 7.7% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
2.860 | 3.1% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
2.445 | 93.8% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
2.324 | 93.6% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
2.218 | 13.1% | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
2.030 | 2.7% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
1.973 | 35.5% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.702 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
1.627 | 98.3% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
1.553 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
1.300 | 73.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.246 | 47.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
1.124 | 20.3% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
1.101 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
0.870 | 88.6% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? | Binary |
0.807 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.793 | 14.1% | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
0.528 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.476 | 99.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
0.395 | 49.9% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
0.380 | 99.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
0.377 | 16.4% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
0.350 | 3.6% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
0.344 | 84.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.315 | 1.3% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.278 | 77.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.268 | 77.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.249 | 8.8% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.246 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.245 | 77.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.168 | 99.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
0.071 | 99.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
0.070 | 99.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
0.043 | 99.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
0.003 | 99.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
-0.001 | 9.2% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
-0.035 | 99.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
-0.039 | 99.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
-0.158 | 87.9% | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
-0.296 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
-0.442 | 82.7% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-0.447 | 95.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
-1.026 | 26.0% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.473 | 99.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
-1.917 | 20.9% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
-3.391 | 99.8% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
-4.204 | 76.1% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-8.311 | 61.7% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
-10.996 | 70.2% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
-13.109 | 69.1% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-30.340 | 31.5% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
-31.378 | 21.3% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-32.793 | 63.3% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-43.620 | 94.2% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
-45.168 | 99.8% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-49.306 | 88.1% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-51.416 | 91.8% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
-65.363 | 62.9% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
-105.184 | 96.1% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |