Sergio

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.03	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
95.528	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
91.537	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
91.509	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
84.296	How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?	Continuous
75.902	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
74.882	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
73.348	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
71.157	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
70.209	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
69.805	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
67.261	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
65.632	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
63.816	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
60.715	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
59.488	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
55.388	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
54.364	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
49.783	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
48.068	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
47.874	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
46.475	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
45.136	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
44.840	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
44.490	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
43.879	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
42.870	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
42.529	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
42.486	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
41.226	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
41.027	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
40.672	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
40.622	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
36.934	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
36.908	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
36.357	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
35.041	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
33.688	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
33.520	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
32.305	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
32.237	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
31.869	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
31.114	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
30.511	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
30.410	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
30.260	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
30.257	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
29.158	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
26.762	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
25.224	In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0?	Continuous
24.885	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
24.883	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
24.722	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
24.472	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
23.710	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
23.592	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
23.507	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
23.389	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
23.315	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
23.300	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
22.989	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
22.916	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
22.321	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
21.850	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
21.778	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
21.754	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
21.529	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
21.481	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
20.580	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
20.384	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
20.108	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
20.042	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
19.710	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
19.616	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
19.575	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
19.409	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
19.368	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
19.247	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
18.889	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
18.833	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
18.469	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
17.915	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
17.723	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
17.551	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
17.237	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
16.757	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
16.743	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
16.557	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
16.487	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
16.368	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
16.031	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
16.030	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
15.890	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
15.341	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (January 2023)	Continuous
14.942	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
14.838	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
14.511	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.331	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
13.981	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
13.857	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
13.764	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
13.592	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
13.322	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
13.234	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
13.186	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
12.791	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
12.735	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
12.634	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.548	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
12.418	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
12.364	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
12.210	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
12.089	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
11.525	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
11.263	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
11.262	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
11.200	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
11.172	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
11.104	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
10.952	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
10.878	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.616	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
10.608	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.508	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
10.066	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
9.764	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
9.764	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
9.507	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
9.359	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
9.278	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
9.225	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
9.179	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
8.894	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
8.835	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
8.596	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
8.581	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.561	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
8.558	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
8.557	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
8.377	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
8.359	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
8.185	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
7.619	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
7.551	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
7.540	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
7.503	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
7.470	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
7.384	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
7.289	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
7.260	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
7.244	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
7.193	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
7.033	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
6.949	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
6.864	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
6.830	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
6.800	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.780	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
6.640	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
6.581	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
6.502	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
6.497	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
6.370	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
6.338	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
6.248	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.172	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
6.101	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
5.844	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
5.778	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
5.731	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
5.485	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
5.469	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
5.284	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
5.251	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
5.230	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.173	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
5.022	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
5.001	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
4.911	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
4.907	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
4.819	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
4.803	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
4.724	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.685	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
4.520	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
4.314	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
4.304	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
4.222	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
4.030	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
3.848	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
3.786	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
3.758	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
3.731	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
3.694	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
3.682	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
3.633	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
3.625	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
3.561	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
3.538	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
3.531	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
3.494	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.481	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
3.441	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
3.361	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
3.310	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
3.136	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
3.073	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.742	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
2.727	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
2.656	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
2.568	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
2.545	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.386	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
2.289	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
2.231	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
2.220	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.153	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
2.144	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
2.046	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
2.000	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
1.955	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
1.930	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
1.754	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.731	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
1.729	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
1.680	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
1.655	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
1.501	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
1.465	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
1.371	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
1.348	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
1.311	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
1.202	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
1.170	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
1.151	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
1.106	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
1.077	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
1.047	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
1.022	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.971	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.880	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
0.810	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.789	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
0.766	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
0.734	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.720	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
0.701	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.678	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.674	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.633	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
0.596	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.529	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.518	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.479	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.475	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
0.418	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
0.340	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.050	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-0.116	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
-0.196	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-0.224	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
-0.342	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
-0.403	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
-0.439	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
-0.529	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
-0.541	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-0.553	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
-0.571	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
-0.571	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
-0.609	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-0.663	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
-0.883	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-0.920	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.135	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
-1.167	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.207	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
-1.399	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
-1.462	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
-1.748	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
-1.867	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
-2.445	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
-2.531	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
-3.335	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
-3.643	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-3.989	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-4.259	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
-4.934	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
-5.746	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
-6.111	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-6.272	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-6.606	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
-6.831	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-6.935	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-6.950	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
-7.141	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
-7.324	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
-7.408	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-7.539	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-7.691	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-8.788	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-8.858	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-8.944	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-9.673	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
-9.701	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-9.942	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
-10.023	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-10.644	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
-10.934	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-11.355	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-11.439	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
-12.373	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-15.943	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
-17.413	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-20.039	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-22.282	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-23.544	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-24.479	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-27.898	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
-31.774	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
-33.023	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
-35.667	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-41.328	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
-62.335	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
-90.874	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous