134.713 | 98.4% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
106.998 | 100.0% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
100.786 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024) | Continuous |
81.722 | 98.3% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024) | Continuous |
78.920 | 99.8% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024) | Continuous |
78.412 | 98.7% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
76.185 | 99.8% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
74.005 | 100.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
73.623 | 100.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
70.187 | 100.0% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
67.419 | 99.5% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
66.467 | 100.0% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
63.951 | 99.0% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
60.177 | 99.1% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
59.978 | 70.8% | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
57.321 | 98.7% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
56.200 | 99.9% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
55.607 | 99.7% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
55.539 | 99.2% | 2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election? | Binary |
52.301 | 96.8% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
49.363 | 99.9% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
48.176 | 45.8% | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
47.140 | 100.0% | What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024? | Continuous |
46.699 | 98.2% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
46.167 | 99.8% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
45.990 | 91.1% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
45.955 | 78.1% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
45.640 | 96.8% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
45.491 | 92.2% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
45.469 | 99.4% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
45.212 | 100.0% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
44.180 | 34.7% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
43.811 | 97.5% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
43.377 | 99.6% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
43.161 | 89.8% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
41.978 | 99.5% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
41.489 | 94.7% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
40.637 | 99.8% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
40.635 | 58.6% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
40.347 | 79.1% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
40.347 | 99.6% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
40.114 | 99.8% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
38.996 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024) | Continuous |
38.795 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024) | Continuous |
38.792 | 99.8% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
37.925 | 98.7% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.503 | 99.7% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.203 | 99.8% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
36.624 | 97.6% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
36.538 | 99.8% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
36.108 | 98.8% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
35.580 | 99.8% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
35.096 | 89.4% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
34.898 | 99.6% | FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak? | Continuous |
34.530 | 91.1% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
33.283 | 100.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
32.362 | 53.1% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
32.207 | 94.7% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
31.831 | 99.8% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
31.612 | 99.8% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
31.556 | 89.1% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
31.427 | 99.8% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
31.186 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024) | Continuous |
30.922 | 95.4% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
30.807 | 99.8% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
30.357 | 99.8% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
29.935 | 96.6% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
29.911 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024) | Continuous |
29.804 | 100.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.748 | 99.8% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
29.103 | 99.6% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
28.569 | 99.9% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024) | Continuous |
27.807 | 99.8% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
27.797 | 93.3% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
27.219 | 99.9% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
27.162 | 99.1% | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
26.868 | 99.8% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
26.849 | 99.8% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
26.199 | 99.3% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
25.643 | 99.8% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024) | Continuous |
25.568 | 99.8% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
25.298 | 59.8% | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
25.281 | 95.7% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
25.052 | 99.8% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
24.500 | 99.4% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
24.344 | 99.8% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
23.637 | 99.8% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
23.419 | 99.7% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
22.653 | 99.8% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
22.510 | 99.9% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024) | Continuous |
22.463 | 99.2% | How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024? | Continuous |
22.261 | 100.0% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
22.250 | 99.8% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
22.056 | 99.8% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
21.910 | 99.8% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
21.845 | 99.8% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.839 | 99.5% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
21.222 | 95.4% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
20.980 | 45.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
20.915 | 99.0% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
20.476 | 98.6% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.167 | 99.9% | Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024? | Binary |
19.720 | 75.8% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
19.640 | 100.0% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
19.586 | 93.9% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
19.370 | 100.0% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
19.267 | 98.8% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
18.869 | 97.3% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
18.831 | 39.0% | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
18.793 | 93.7% | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
18.237 | 99.8% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
17.878 | 63.8% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.848 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024) | Continuous |
17.590 | 99.3% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.505 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024) | Continuous |
17.315 | 90.9% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
17.006 | 48.8% | 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? | Binary |
16.378 | 99.8% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
16.210 | 99.9% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
15.984 | 88.8% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
15.872 | 99.8% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
15.590 | 63.2% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.494 | 85.7% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
15.485 | 99.7% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.355 | 99.9% | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
15.248 | 97.5% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.217 | 98.3% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024) | Continuous |
15.174 | 98.9% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
14.895 | 100.0% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
14.836 | 39.6% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
14.531 | 45.1% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.401 | 45.5% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
14.381 | 97.8% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.258 | 99.4% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
14.205 | 99.9% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024) | Continuous |
14.005 | 76.8% | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
13.457 | 97.9% | EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025) | Continuous |
13.351 | 52.0% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
13.346 | 71.5% | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
13.193 | 99.7% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
13.108 | 99.8% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
13.014 | 43.4% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
13.003 | 99.5% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.654 | 99.8% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
12.538 | 61.0% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
12.180 | 100.0% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
11.966 | 99.6% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
11.834 | 99.8% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
11.682 | 99.9% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
11.414 | 97.3% | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
11.347 | 94.3% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
11.312 | 98.7% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
11.112 | 89.5% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
11.089 | 100.0% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
11.080 | 63.3% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.080 | 99.5% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.928 | 99.9% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
10.855 | 100.0% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.632 | 87.7% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
10.296 | 99.6% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
10.159 | 100.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
10.125 | 96.8% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
9.937 | 100.0% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.819 | 100.0% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
8.815 | 99.8% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
8.619 | 39.4% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
8.463 | 97.5% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
8.268 | 89.1% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
8.236 | 79.0% | Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate? | Binary |
8.145 | 99.9% | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
7.952 | 99.8% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
7.916 | 34.5% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
7.752 | 99.3% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
7.644 | 99.1% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.552 | 99.3% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
7.523 | 99.9% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
7.288 | 99.8% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
7.279 | 96.1% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
7.185 | 21.3% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
6.800 | 99.1% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
6.765 | 99.7% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.666 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024) | Continuous |
6.457 | 87.9% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
6.373 | 11.6% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
6.350 | 84.1% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.264 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
6.258 | 99.2% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
5.944 | 99.2% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
5.821 | 99.5% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
5.810 | 97.6% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.722 | 87.6% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
5.700 | 99.8% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
5.662 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024) | Continuous |
5.565 | 73.0% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
5.516 | 98.9% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.476 | 89.0% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
5.467 | 100.0% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
5.256 | 99.4% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
4.833 | 90.6% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
4.819 | 99.9% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
4.595 | 100.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.461 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
4.407 | 99.7% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.373 | 100.0% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
4.094 | 52.7% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
3.933 | 99.5% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.915 | 100.0% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
3.907 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
3.805 | 99.8% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.793 | 99.6% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.778 | 93.3% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.718 | 14.6% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
3.656 | 36.8% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
3.599 | 99.8% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
3.394 | 100.0% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
3.330 | 61.7% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
3.293 | 95.5% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.286 | 8.6% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
3.138 | 82.0% | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
2.917 | 99.4% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
2.879 | 99.7% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.425 | 95.0% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
2.038 | 91.4% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
1.847 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024) | Continuous |
1.542 | 99.5% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
1.264 | 99.9% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.142 | 99.8% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
1.116 | 85.3% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
0.957 | 99.3% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
0.946 | 45.0% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
0.825 | 88.5% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
0.804 | 5.7% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
0.740 | 45.9% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
0.594 | 99.8% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
0.538 | 99.8% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
0.354 | 1.6% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.322 | 99.6% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.305 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024) | Continuous |
0.283 | 0.6% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.200 | 2.0% | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.169 | 0.9% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
0.054 | 36.2% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.107 | 99.7% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
-0.128 | 98.2% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
-0.156 | 99.9% | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
-0.532 | 94.2% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
-0.704 | 17.4% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
-0.846 | 44.0% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
-0.983 | 99.1% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
-1.098 | 92.8% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
-1.150 | 88.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
-1.668 | 88.6% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
-1.700 | 98.5% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.959 | 97.1% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-2.468 | 27.9% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
-2.541 | 99.4% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
-2.647 | 99.9% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.697 | 94.3% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
-2.839 | 96.3% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
-2.881 | 35.9% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-2.982 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
-3.100 | 92.7% | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
-3.190 | 87.7% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
-3.966 | 28.4% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-4.277 | 89.1% | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
-4.753 | 95.6% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
-4.897 | 99.7% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.044 | 98.3% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024) | Continuous |
-5.656 | 33.0% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-5.785 | 96.0% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-6.499 | 6.6% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-6.778 | 99.9% | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024) | Continuous |
-7.678 | 38.6% | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
-8.456 | 97.2% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
-9.880 | 74.2% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024) | Continuous |
-10.054 | 100.0% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024) | Continuous |
-10.788 | 99.9% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-11.574 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-12.991 | 37.3% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-15.395 | 99.2% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-22.933 | 96.9% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
-23.052 | 87.3% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-24.717 | 100.0% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
-42.884 | 99.8% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-46.567 | 99.6% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |