63.370 | 99.5% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
49.725 | 71.0% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
49.552 | 97.2% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
48.943 | 73.5% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
46.575 | 97.2% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
44.120 | 75.5% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
40.582 | 97.2% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
36.910 | 96.7% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
36.246 | 76.5% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
35.589 | 75.6% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
34.344 | 97.2% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
33.991 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
31.493 | 45.4% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
31.480 | 97.2% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
31.184 | 45.5% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
31.164 | 92.8% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.730 | 89.0% | Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May? | Binary |
28.454 | 97.2% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
26.493 | 99.8% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
26.437 | 76.9% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
25.752 | 68.6% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
25.567 | 15.8% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
24.709 | 94.9% | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
23.754 | 72.0% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
23.002 | 42.3% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
22.931 | 97.2% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
22.516 | 93.3% | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
22.296 | 89.4% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.996 | 79.1% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
20.607 | 70.2% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
20.605 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
20.329 | 63.4% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.283 | 91.2% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
20.096 | 91.6% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
19.886 | 95.1% | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | Binary |
19.712 | 75.7% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
19.428 | 73.2% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
18.920 | 99.9% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
16.645 | 72.0% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
16.579 | 69.5% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan? | Multiple Choice |
16.109 | 43.8% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
15.957 | 94.5% | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
15.570 | 48.5% | [Short fuse] Who will win the 2024 Uruguayan Presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
15.378 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
15.350 | 88.8% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.926 | 71.0% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
14.914 | 73.0% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
14.279 | 83.3% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
13.261 | 69.8% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.068 | 54.5% | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
12.964 | 41.2% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
12.854 | 79.2% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.621 | 31.1% | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.922 | 82.7% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
11.709 | 73.1% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
11.649 | 97.0% | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
11.642 | 46.6% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
10.988 | 93.1% | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
10.947 | 78.0% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
10.626 | 37.3% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
10.511 | 18.6% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
9.504 | 78.0% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
8.809 | 81.3% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
8.050 | 97.2% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
7.892 | 90.1% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
7.352 | 97.2% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
7.080 | 96.4% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
7.068 | 89.9% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.664 | 97.2% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
6.329 | 78.4% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.231 | 72.6% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
6.205 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
6.119 | 54.2% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
6.027 | 27.5% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.915 | 20.8% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
5.649 | 11.0% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
5.273 | 23.8% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
4.991 | 12.9% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
4.592 | 96.5% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
4.396 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
4.244 | 50.5% | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | Binary |
4.083 | 17.5% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.882 | 44.0% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
3.774 | 13.4% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
3.672 | 73.6% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
3.480 | 64.8% | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
3.073 | 50.6% | Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season? | Binary |
3.029 | 12.1% | Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion? | Binary |
2.889 | 47.5% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
2.518 | 11.5% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
2.481 | 96.7% | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
2.357 | 14.7% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.340 | 41.4% | How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year? | Multiple Choice |
2.037 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
1.977 | 6.1% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
1.542 | 16.9% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
1.130 | 92.9% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
1.117 | 1.8% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
1.049 | 1.8% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
1.040 | 19.9% | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
1.026 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
0.892 | 6.6% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
0.819 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
0.792 | 9.6% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
0.652 | 1.0% | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | Binary |
0.538 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
0.261 | 0.5% | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
-0.173 | 71.2% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.292 | 1.6% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau? | Multiple Choice |
-0.385 | 76.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
-0.795 | 78.7% | Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate? | Binary |
-2.065 | 56.8% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
-2.424 | 21.0% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
-3.534 | 35.1% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
-4.185 | 51.8% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.888 | 6.2% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-5.569 | 78.1% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.573 | 50.2% | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
-7.117 | 11.1% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-7.126 | 65.3% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
-8.251 | 56.1% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
-8.369 | 79.6% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
-8.489 | 95.6% | Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? | Binary |
-9.475 | 29.6% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-10.569 | 8.8% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
-11.339 | 67.8% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-12.764 | 59.3% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
-15.755 | 67.5% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-18.669 | 49.5% | Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025? | Binary |
-22.761 | 55.3% | How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024? | Continuous |
-24.439 | 85.3% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
-33.167 | 75.3% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-34.825 | 30.9% | Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024? | Binary |
-38.100 | 97.2% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
-40.682 | 27.8% | Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament? | Binary |
-46.207 | 44.0% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-48.587 | 55.1% | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |