chipsie

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.961	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
118.915	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16)	Continuous
108.990	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
105.288	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
102.932	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16)	Continuous
95.630	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
93.369	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
92.177	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
88.329	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous
78.239	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30)	Continuous
75.504	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
70.890	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
69.554	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
69.294	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
68.107	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
62.307	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
62.221	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
61.353	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
61.150	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (May 14)	Continuous
56.731	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
54.657	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
54.546	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
54.361	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
51.834	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 30)	Continuous
50.372	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
49.758	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
49.709	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (May 14)	Continuous
49.636	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
48.969	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
47.497	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (May 14)	Continuous
46.632	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16)	Continuous
45.401	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
43.241	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
42.064	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
41.064	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
40.727	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
40.335	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
39.049	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
38.168	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
38.155	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
37.743	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
36.458	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
34.379	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
34.357	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
34.233	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
34.220	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
33.615	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
33.077	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
32.468	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
32.310	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
32.310	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
31.060	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
30.920	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
30.451	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16)	Continuous
30.310	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
29.291	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
29.193	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
29.091	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
28.854	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
28.120	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
27.726	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
27.418	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
26.505	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
25.856	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
25.616	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
25.122	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
24.625	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
23.321	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
23.234	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
22.883	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
22.400	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
22.256	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
21.698	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
21.258	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
21.090	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
20.988	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
20.977	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
20.018	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
19.060	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
18.776	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
18.224	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
17.472	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
17.424	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
17.341	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
16.616	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
16.373	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
16.225	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
15.357	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
15.356	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
15.326	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
15.278	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
14.461	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
13.291	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
12.851	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
12.434	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
12.159	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
12.147	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
11.975	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
10.903	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
10.601	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
10.500	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
10.324	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
9.140	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
9.064	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
8.658	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
8.403	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 30)	Continuous
7.432	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
7.402	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
7.372	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
6.798	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
5.848	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
5.774	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
5.677	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
5.670	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
5.621	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?	Continuous
5.374	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
4.909	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
4.784	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.690	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
4.540	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
4.218	What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?	Continuous
4.136	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
3.845	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
3.616	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
3.242	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
2.902	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
2.220	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
2.136	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
2.012	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
1.835	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
1.813	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
1.750	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
1.657	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
1.620	Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?	Binary
1.426	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
0.869	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
0.735	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.540	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
-0.396	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-0.525	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-0.783	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-1.040	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
-1.381	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
-1.983	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-2.436	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-2.680	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (May 14)	Continuous
-2.897	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-2.899	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-3.539	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
-3.915	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-4.042	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
-4.371	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
-4.505	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
-4.753	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 30)	Continuous
-5.441	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
-5.720	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-5.729	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
-6.185	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-6.931	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
-7.755	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-8.037	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
-8.140	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-8.373	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
-8.388	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-8.657	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (May 14)	Continuous
-8.807	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-9.291	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
-10.264	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 30)	Continuous
-10.962	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
-11.303	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
-12.076	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
-12.950	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?	Continuous
-13.120	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
-13.401	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
-13.614	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-14.476	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-14.491	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
-14.668	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-14.709	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-15.710	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-15.729	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
-15.805	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-15.963	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-17.088	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (May 14)	Continuous
-17.146	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
-17.474	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-17.488	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-19.364	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
-19.789	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
-20.019	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
-20.386	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
-21.032	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
-21.188	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-23.023	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
-23.708	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-24.371	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
-25.613	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-27.898	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 30)	Continuous
-28.389	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-29.918	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-30.044	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-30.180	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
-31.214	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-32.391	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-36.119	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
-36.957	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
-37.858	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-44.519	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-51.327	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
-51.750	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
-51.797	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
-55.793	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
-57.509	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-60.965	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
-73.931	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
-78.048	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
-85.151	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-88.792	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
-89.211	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-109.638	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
-128.315	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-136.085	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-143.132	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous

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chipsie

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chipsie