kqr

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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6.003	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
88.325	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
52.906	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
52.182	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
46.864	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
46.566	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
44.775	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
40.450	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
37.773	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.221	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
36.681	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
33.631	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
32.265	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
30.625	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
30.580	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
29.680	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
28.492	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
27.821	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
27.344	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
26.775	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
26.085	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
26.017	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
25.921	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
25.411	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
25.324	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
25.309	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
25.222	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
24.859	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
24.657	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
23.377	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
23.247	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
22.367	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
21.175	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
21.147	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
21.129	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
20.761	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
20.592	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
20.246	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
20.002	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
19.837	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
19.556	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
18.714	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
17.634	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
17.451	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
16.652	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
15.110	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
14.598	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
14.300	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
14.173	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
13.977	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
13.690	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
13.505	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.232	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
12.671	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
12.645	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
12.075	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
11.874	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
11.428	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
11.390	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
11.039	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.973	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
10.768	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
10.608	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
10.534	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
10.278	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
10.107	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
10.004	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
9.974	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
9.823	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.564	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
9.017	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
8.804	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
8.415	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
8.138	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
8.102	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.086	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
7.003	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
6.817	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
6.790	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
6.700	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
6.686	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
6.646	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
6.625	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.394	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
6.349	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
6.162	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
6.074	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
6.057	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
6.037	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
5.887	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
5.775	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
5.739	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.662	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
5.370	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
5.312	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.963	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
4.902	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
4.374	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
4.312	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
4.285	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
4.189	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
3.785	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
3.231	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.092	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.933	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.866	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
2.734	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
2.631	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.606	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.546	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
2.525	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.636	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
1.593	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
1.408	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.401	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
1.299	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
1.266	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
1.261	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
1.214	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
1.148	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
0.606	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
0.578	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
0.573	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
0.568	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
0.495	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
0.455	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
0.442	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
0.437	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
0.423	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.413	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
0.407	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
0.400	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
0.390	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.317	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
0.306	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
0.286	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
0.282	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
0.270	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
0.232	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.230	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
0.205	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.190	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
0.097	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.088	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
0.069	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
0.044	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
0.035	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
0.030	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.029	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-0.036	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.074	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
-0.116	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
-0.166	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
-0.236	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
-0.339	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
-0.451	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
-0.563	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
-0.730	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-0.809	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
-1.004	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
-1.030	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
-1.040	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
-1.069	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
-1.233	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
-1.273	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-1.362	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
-1.416	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
-1.473	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
-1.674	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
-1.727	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
-1.751	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
-1.861	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
-2.058	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
-2.508	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
-2.682	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
-2.723	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
-2.998	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
-4.081	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
-4.154	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.157	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
-5.200	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
-5.360	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
-7.140	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
-7.299	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-7.497	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-12.617	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
-15.621	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.083	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
-18.980	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
-21.150	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
-22.641	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
-25.984	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-29.233	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
-37.803	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
-49.046	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-62.719	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
-65.256	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-87.650	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-114.035	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary