139.967 | 97.3% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
72.560 | 97.3% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
68.457 | 95.6% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
64.378 | 90.0% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
61.149 | 94.5% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
59.841 | 67.6% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
59.131 | 99.9% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
57.415 | 98.5% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
53.187 | 87.2% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
51.824 | 61.9% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
50.708 | 99.4% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
49.531 | 99.9% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
48.567 | 74.9% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
48.330 | 100.0% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
48.044 | 93.2% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
47.606 | 89.9% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
45.213 | 76.5% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
44.936 | 63.2% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
44.750 | 94.9% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
44.482 | 87.9% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
42.272 | 83.8% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
40.959 | 90.9% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
40.347 | 60.2% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
40.226 | 97.8% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
39.259 | 81.4% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
39.028 | 63.4% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
38.065 | 99.6% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.976 | 100.0% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
37.925 | 99.9% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
37.849 | 93.3% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
37.658 | 95.4% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
36.725 | 100.0% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
36.642 | 92.2% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
36.626 | 100.0% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
35.312 | 98.2% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
35.023 | 97.3% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
34.931 | 96.0% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
34.278 | 99.9% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
33.745 | 100.0% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
31.725 | 98.4% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
31.581 | 38.4% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
31.087 | 99.9% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
30.646 | 99.5% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
29.340 | 79.1% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
29.303 | 97.7% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
27.985 | 100.0% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
27.919 | 98.5% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
27.919 | 96.5% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
27.810 | 94.5% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
27.008 | 48.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
26.527 | 99.8% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
25.460 | 98.0% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
23.971 | 100.0% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.889 | 99.8% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
21.387 | 89.1% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
21.091 | 100.0% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
19.863 | 99.4% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.647 | 98.7% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
19.558 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
19.199 | 97.9% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
18.751 | 94.3% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
18.090 | 99.9% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
18.021 | 100.0% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
17.827 | 37.7% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.544 | 100.0% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
17.291 | 99.9% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
17.108 | 77.2% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
17.068 | 99.3% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
16.861 | 99.4% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
16.754 | 97.3% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
16.747 | 92.7% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.692 | 93.1% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
16.643 | 96.5% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.643 | 99.9% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
16.404 | 65.0% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.167 | 79.7% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
15.625 | 98.7% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.470 | 90.8% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
15.170 | 98.8% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.964 | 17.5% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
14.687 | 98.7% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
13.660 | 98.1% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
13.481 | 45.2% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
13.469 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
13.304 | 90.0% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
13.078 | 99.8% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
12.821 | 89.6% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
12.765 | 88.5% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
12.554 | 96.2% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
12.533 | 99.8% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
12.257 | 98.1% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
11.982 | 60.5% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
11.244 | 89.9% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
10.824 | 100.0% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
9.641 | 100.0% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
9.376 | 98.4% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.290 | 100.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
9.257 | 99.9% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
9.040 | 98.6% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.731 | 98.7% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.658 | 84.4% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
8.569 | 33.0% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
8.441 | 63.4% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.402 | 99.7% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
8.384 | 98.1% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
8.219 | 100.0% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
7.746 | 63.6% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.360 | 55.9% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
7.037 | 97.3% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
6.891 | 85.3% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
6.752 | 99.0% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
6.631 | 83.0% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
6.630 | 87.1% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
6.379 | 8.9% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
6.270 | 99.6% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
6.151 | 43.1% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.972 | 99.8% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
5.818 | 99.5% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
5.772 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
5.750 | 78.2% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
5.678 | 82.8% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
5.573 | 97.2% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.483 | 99.9% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.411 | 100.0% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
5.326 | 100.0% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
4.880 | 100.0% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
4.866 | 9.9% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.834 | 96.4% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
4.828 | 99.8% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
4.814 | 45.2% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
4.700 | 21.4% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
4.630 | 44.2% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
4.480 | 87.7% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
3.828 | 93.0% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
3.799 | 99.0% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
3.638 | 99.9% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
3.434 | 97.7% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.889 | 94.5% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
2.780 | 98.7% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
2.727 | 98.6% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.721 | 11.9% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
2.604 | 99.7% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
2.379 | 97.1% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
2.174 | 100.0% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
1.971 | 11.1% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
1.756 | 96.7% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.547 | 90.1% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.184 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.726 | 99.8% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.552 | 97.8% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
0.544 | 26.9% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
0.043 | 99.9% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.034 | 25.5% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-0.451 | 99.7% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
-0.498 | 100.0% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
-0.628 | 98.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
-0.720 | 4.7% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
-1.021 | 96.2% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.032 | 28.1% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-1.039 | 92.2% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
-1.124 | 99.2% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
-1.232 | 7.7% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-1.484 | 45.8% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
-1.714 | 84.5% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
-1.980 | 91.7% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.853 | 83.5% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
-3.027 | 93.0% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
-3.050 | 96.8% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
-3.226 | 84.3% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-3.468 | 74.1% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
-3.478 | 96.7% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-3.645 | 95.6% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
-4.056 | 100.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.749 | 92.4% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
-4.816 | 54.8% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
-4.929 | 85.8% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
-4.981 | 99.6% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
-4.989 | 100.0% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
-5.292 | 94.3% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-5.564 | 95.0% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
-5.830 | 14.2% | What will be the fate of Starliner Calypso by September 30? | Multiple Choice |
-6.006 | 95.3% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
-6.248 | 100.0% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
-6.718 | 92.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-7.160 | 37.7% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-7.782 | 86.0% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
-7.898 | 94.9% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
-8.600 | 94.2% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-8.697 | 95.6% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-9.767 | 70.9% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
-10.807 | 34.1% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-11.180 | 96.3% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
-11.271 | 98.0% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-11.449 | 98.9% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-11.992 | 99.7% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
-12.791 | 99.5% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
-14.542 | 91.8% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-16.039 | 90.0% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-16.238 | 32.2% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-17.057 | 100.0% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
-18.342 | 89.7% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
-18.543 | 92.9% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
-18.622 | 77.2% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
-19.623 | 97.4% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
-21.236 | 100.0% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
-22.042 | 88.0% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
-22.869 | 89.8% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-23.298 | 100.0% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
-25.193 | 97.7% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
-30.625 | 98.7% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
-31.371 | 97.1% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
-33.235 | 90.8% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
-35.514 | 31.8% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
-36.610 | 100.0% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
-36.824 | 99.0% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
-44.716 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
-44.908 | 99.9% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
-48.846 | 75.0% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
-51.831 | 78.3% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
-55.395 | 98.8% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
-62.294 | 91.5% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-141.825 | 100.0% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |