gunturiqbal

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.34	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.662	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
70.369	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
65.171	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
56.824	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
53.708	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
49.925	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
43.954	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
42.662	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
41.262	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
40.190	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
40.101	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
36.107	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
35.378	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
32.863	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
32.404	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
32.095	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
31.966	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
30.831	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
30.107	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
29.308	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
29.141	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
27.469	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
26.446	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
24.656	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
24.638	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
24.444	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
23.696	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
23.687	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
23.630	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
23.382	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
23.357	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
23.130	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
22.739	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
22.167	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
21.888	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
21.397	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
21.215	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
20.840	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
20.488	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
20.417	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
19.797	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
19.118	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
19.067	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
18.947	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
18.348	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
18.331	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
18.033	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
17.635	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
17.038	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
16.974	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
16.703	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
16.509	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
16.135	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
15.850	How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?	Continuous
14.729	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
14.722	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
14.522	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
14.448	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
14.316	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
14.223	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
14.049	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
13.807	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
13.788	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
13.515	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
13.486	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
13.001	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
12.739	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
12.523	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
12.378	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Argentine Peso $)	Binary
12.306	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
12.246	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
12.152	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
11.889	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
11.848	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
11.666	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
11.643	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
11.484	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
11.472	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
11.237	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
11.176	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
10.932	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
10.880	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
10.825	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
10.658	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
10.629	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
9.593	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
9.557	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
9.291	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
9.259	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
9.232	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
9.100	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
9.045	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
9.031	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
8.861	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
8.694	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
8.555	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
8.402	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
8.311	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
7.868	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
7.464	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
7.437	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
7.294	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
7.292	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
7.251	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
7.041	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
6.365	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
6.355	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
6.336	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
6.314	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
6.286	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
6.266	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
6.106	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
5.933	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
5.886	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
5.666	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
5.655	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
5.540	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
5.426	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
5.307	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
5.293	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
5.030	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
5.020	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
5.018	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
4.935	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
4.870	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.762	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
4.747	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
4.685	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
4.668	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
4.132	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
4.083	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
4.063	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
3.635	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.491	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
3.397	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
2.772	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
2.616	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
2.350	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
1.919	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
1.628	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
1.625	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
1.573	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
1.275	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
1.104	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
0.860	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
0.802	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
0.752	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.684	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
0.227	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
0.095	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
-0.520	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
-1.496	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
-1.624	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
-2.139	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-2.576	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
-4.641	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-4.931	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-5.149	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
-5.882	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
-10.895	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-13.696	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
-14.288	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-27.344	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-41.278	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-57.544	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-118.318	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-125.002	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary

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gunturiqbal

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gunturiqbal